All the years Israel said an Iranian nuke was imminent…


by Sunny Hundal    
3:38 pm - January 29th 2013

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The US media is once again reporting Israeli speculation on Iranian attempts to build a nuclear weapon.

Now, I do think the current Iranian government would like to have nuclear weapons capability.

But here’s a timeline of Israeli warnings on Iranian nukes (via Opinio Juris)

1984: West German intelligence sources claim that Iran’s production of a bomb “is entering its final stages.” US Senator Alan Cranston claims Iran is seven years away from making a weapon.

1992: Israeli parliamentarian Benjamin Netanyahu tells his colleagues that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.

1995: The New York Times reports that US and Israeli officials fear “Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought” – less than five years away. Netanyahu claims the time frame is three to five years.

1996: Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres claims Iran will have nuclear weapons in four years.

1998: Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld claims Iran could build an ICBM capable of reaching the US within five years.

1999: An Israeli military official claims that Iran will have a nuclear weapon within five years.

2001: The Israeli Minister of Defence claims that Iran will be ready to launch a nuclear weapon in less than four years.

2002: The CIA warns that the danger of nuclear weapons from Iran is higher than during the Cold War, because its missile capability has grown more quickly than expected since 2000 – putting it on par with North Korea.

2003: A high-ranking Israeli military officer tells the Knesset that Iran will have the bomb by 2005 — 17 months away.

2006: A State Department official claims that Iran may be capable of building a nuclear weapon in 16 days.

2008: An Israeli general tells the Cabinet that Iran is “half-way” to enriching enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon and will have a working weapon no later than the end of 2010.

2009: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak estimates that Iran is 6-18 months away from building an operative nuclear weapon.

2010: Israeli decision-makers believe that Iran is at most 1-3 years away from being able to assemble a nuclear weapon.

2011: IAEA report indicates that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within months.

2013: Israeli intelligence officials claim that Iran could have the bomb by 2015 or 2016.

There shouldn’t be any doubt that it is entirely foolish to rely on Israeli intelligence on the matter.

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About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments


You seem to (want to) overlook that we have been rather successful in delaying the Iranian nuclear programme, with computer viruses, killings of nuclear scientists and acts of sabotage. But e can’t count on this continuing to be as successful as it has been, although I will certainly try to continue doing my best.

Yes, Zionist propaganda is shameless. In actual fact the first victims of an Iranian nuclear capability, not that they would ever be in a position to acquire such a thing, would be the theocratic tyranny itself. The regime is 100% reliant on external threats to keep limping on and if nukes brought a sense of security to the Iranian people they’d have the ayatollahs out double quick. But there is always the chance, and it grows by the day of course, that in attempting to acquire these weapons, if that is what they are doing, the regime will provoke an assault on its people that will be genocidal in scope which means that even as a tyrannical guarantor of security this regime presents itself as far more of a danger to the Iranian people against external threat than its protector.

It is to be hoped that the opposition in Iran can spring once again to life as it did so heroically not so long ago but this time with overwhelming force and Arab Spring dimensions to impose a new democratic socialist regime that will pledge to end Iran’s nuclear programme and instead invest Iran’s money, brains and manpower in renewables. This will make Iran popular across the globe and whilst it might not prevent an imperialist or Zionist assault it has a good chance of doing so in the teeth of global opposition. And of course without the theocracy in Iran to saber rattle against Zionist Israel would not be long in following the ayatollahs into the dustbin of history.

Iran would never launch a nuclear attack on Israel and we all know it.

4. Infidel Truth Teller 101

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/2563/the_storm_is_just_beginning

Whenever there are sectarian problems in Africa, the Middle East or Europe, Islamism is more often than not the root cause.
the battle between the West and Islamism is clearly intensifying.

Iran would never launch a nuclear attack on Israel and we all know it.

If they think like Dave Ellis above (Zionist propaganda… an assault on its people that will be genocidal in scope… imperialist or Zionist assault…blah blah) they almost certainly would.

If people in the UK fantasise about genocidal Zionists you would hardly expect Iranians not to.

See this BBC Hardtalk interview last year with Meir Dugan, who was head of Mossad 2002-2010:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yERtxcXZyU

Dugan was saying that a bombing attack on Iran, as has been mooted from time to time, would be “stupid” – because it would only delay weaponisation of Iran’s uranium stockpile and an attack would rally support for Iran’s leadership.

Perhaps Israel was a bit busy doing this to Jews to manage to fettle down an accurate time frame.

That’s a set of well worth keeping statistics. Thanks, I may need to quote from them.

[deleted]

put it down to mideast efficiency plus unselfish members of the iranian resistance working with foreign countries.

but the question is not has the nuke program finished, rather has it started!!!

the question is do you want this nuke to happen or not? what are you labouring for? the role of iran in dedicated programs of violence throughout the middle east as well as inside iran and indeed in Europe, south and north america is now undeniable. syria, iraq, lebanon, gaza, bosrah. and you just have to ask the gulf states how they feel about iran.

the question is do you want civilisation to arrive in the middle east? at the moment those pesky jews are just light-years ahead in terms of a creative contribution to humanity. and they’re outnumbered 70 to 1! it makes me sick to think of their success. if i meet an israeli on the street i think i will just… oh let loose at him i tell you. such evil evil people. even with all the efforts at driving them down over the millenia, i mean they just seem to pop up all over the place. to have contributed so much in the sciences, the arts, medicine, mathematics, agriculture, popular culture they must have something really bad inside of them, right? and allah said it. i think its education – they have the 2nd highest educated population in the world – they must be evil. and longevity – even the israeli arabs live longer than americans! why do competitive global companies like google, microsoft and intel put research bases there in israel? how can such a destructive culture create something good? i mean how can you create something good when theres obviously so much evil inside you and you’re bent on genocide. and the way they tolerate other religions even letting the muslims stay on their most holy site even though there is no confirmed link to think that al quds is in jerusalem! what a bunch of terrorists are these israelis. then theres that jesus fellow – another israeli who became the most influential person in all of history and caused so much destruction – just look at the populations which have had the bible in circulation the longest: UK, US, Germany – their citizens apparently provide such an example to so many countries of this world. i’m sure its all just a coverup as well and theres no real contribution from them. i for one can confidently discard oxford and harvard but apparently many others can’t.

so we thought that after 60 years of war and inflated petrol prices the jews would fall and tel aviv could go back to being a sand dune as it was 100 years ago and jerusalem could go back to being a jewish majority city under nominal muslim rule with the occasional pogrom as it was 150 years ago.

but since i’m not judging all of this from the lofty vantage point of middle england and 3000 miles from tel aviv – genocide central you know – i probably shouldn’t have a say in determining what connotations the label “zionist” carries with it when thrown around by readers of this blogshite.

Compare this from the website of Jews For Justice For Palestinians:

The death toll of Palestinians armed with nothing more lethal than stones, mounts. BTselem, in a re-issued report on the crowd control weapons used by the IOF, has counted 56 Palestinians killed since 2005 by the IOF combatting protesters. Live ammunition has been used as well as rubber-coated metal bullets prohibited for use inside Israel.
http://jfjfp.com/

It is reported that Hitler loved dogs.

“Now, I do think the current Iranian government would like to have nuclear weapons capability. ”

Well, yes, obviously.

There are two and only two choices here.

1) Iran wants the bomb.

2) They’re entirely irrational.

A bit of technical nuclear stuff here. If you want to build reactors for electricity generation then you’ve got to have a supply of enriched uranium. The plant to enrich uranium is grossly expensive, $10 billion is a useful starting number. You also want to enrich it to “low enriched uranium”, LEU. That’s what electricity reactors use.

If you want a bomb you’ve also got to enrich your uranium. And you need that $10 billion plant too. But you must enrich to high enriched uranium, HEU.

Now, if you sign the non-proliferation treaty (Iran has) then other countries have to (yes, have to!) help you either build a plant to make EU or agree to supply you with it. Either is hugely cheaper than trying to work out how to do it yourself.

Indeed, I know (or used to, at least) the people in Russia who had a contract with Iran to build exactly such a plant for them.

But, an LEU and an HEU plant are not quite the same thing. And no one would, officially at least, come in and build an HEU plant for anyone.

So Iran could get either the plant or the fuel simply, legally and cheaply, under the non-proliferation treaty.

They’re not: and they’re also preparing HEU (yes, we do know this, they admit it). They say that they’re producing HEU in order to fire up a very special kind of reactor, one that produces isotopes for nuclear medicine. Something which again doesn’t make sense. For there’s masses of money around to convert such research/isotope reactors to LEU. You could probably get someone to build you one for free just by threatening to build an HEU one.

So, they’re going nuclear by the most eye-wateringly expensive route possible. They’re trying to do it all themselves instead of taking advantage of the legally mandated design and building help that other nuclear nations must give them. And they’re preparing HEU.

The only logical conclusion is that they’re building a bomb. They’re just doing too many things that don’t make engineering or financial sense to be building a civilian reactor programme.

Just in case this Reuters news bulletin of Thursday gets overlooked:

UN rights inquiry says Israel must remove settlers – Israel refused to cooperate with UN investigation
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/01/31/israel-palestinians-settlements-update-idUKL5N0B06KO20130131

Israel’s foreign ministry swiftly rejected the report as “counterproductive and unfortunate.” Palestinians welcomed the report, saying it vindicated their struggle against Israel.

Sunny,

Without wishing to be rude I think anyone reviewing the evidence of Iran’s nuclear programme would have to be either naive in the extreme of a plain simpleton not to conclude they are after nuclear weapons. Medical use – my arse (the famous Jim Royale phrase).

If you follow the history of the Chinese programme, the Israeli programme, the Pakistan and Indian programmes and North Korea – they all follow the same clandestine stages which ended up with weapons.

After Iran has got them and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt and others are trying to buy an operational nuclear programme faster than Abu Dhabi United bought the Premiership with Man City – then I look forward to articles with timelines blaming Israel for either starting it or not stopping it.

This is laughable.

Of the 15 instances cited 5 are not from Israeli sources.

The fact that an initial assessment/warning was not later vindicated does not mean it was wrong at the time of analysis – clearly actions could be taken to try to slow the progress of the nuclear program which would ideally slow the timeline.

Finally the warnings all indicate that Iran wants to build a nuclear device (something you say you agree with), so even if the timeframes are wrong then the intelligence would be useful in continually stating the Iranian regime’s intentions which they have themselves routinely denied and still do so.

Beneath ridicule, what a waste of 5 mins reading!

Really helpful article which in essence says ” Don’t accept Israeli/ US/ IAEA speculation about Iranian aspirations to acquire nuclear weapons. Accept Sunny Hundal’s counter-speculations, instead.”

Israeli “intelligence”…..a true oxymoron…..or, rather, this is exactly what murderous lying assholes do. They’ve adopted the South African/Nazi-like Apartheid and they’ve become precisely what they condemned, so their slogan of “Never Again” becomes meaningless rhetoric. Of course not ALL Israelis behave this way, primary the Zionist Israelis. Isn’t it time to stand up against this scum of the earth?

An incredibly effective video — for those who have the ability — would be to relay the above information in a video with a superimposed DATE counter that ticks from 1984… to the presnt, with a clip of audio, video, and/or newsclipping hitting home documentary evidence of these claims year in, year out. After a while the point will become very very powerful.

Israel has every right to defend its dozens of thermonuclear weapons
from Iran. Iran may have a backward, sadly ignorant clerical leadership, a beady-eyed president that cannot be up to any good (with those beady eyes) but Israel must protect the Rothschild’s favorite playground.

Our job is to finance it all by using the FED and its hit men, the IRS, BOTH private corporations, NOT U.S. government agencies (you don’t believe it?). Go ahead, America, keep paying-up to prop-up a NAZI state in palestine.

Love it or leave it. If you are rich enough to do so.

Jews only care about Jews
Israel only cares about Israel

any questions !!??

Fearmongering at it’s finest.

You would think ppl would have learned after Iraq fiasco (lie about WMD) and why NK still exists today threatened to test nukes left and right.

Andreas Moser are you retarded or something LOL!

oh yea man all that terror activity that we do and Israel has done has stopped them all these years from making a bomb! like the one in the picture!
You just admitted that the US and Israel is being terrorists to Iran by as you say Sabotage!
WTF!
Retard

The U.S. has to fuel its war machine, so employs fear. For people who can’t read or think for themselves, this is sufficient.

Israel has been doing this for so many years that it is like a worn out script. “The Sky is Falling”, “Iran is building a nuke”, “We Must Attack Now”, “Hold Us Back”, How Much will you Give us if We Don’t Attack”?.The political side is the chief culprit in all the hysteria and blatant lies. The Intell side is more sanguine. Tamir Pardo, head of the Mossad, to a group of Israeli Ambassadors, “Iran, even with nuclear weapons, is not an existential threat to Israel”.
Meir Dagan, past head of the Mossad, “An attack against Iran would be the stupidest thing I can think of”. In2008, George Bush turned down the Israelis when they asked for an assist in attacking Iran. The National Intelligence Estimate of 2007 had conclusively stated that Iran was not working on nuclear weapons. All subsequent findings have said the same thing.

Can the people of this country be fooled into a third conflict for the third time for the benefit Of Israel, I say yes , when %74 of the people could not point Iraq on the map and so %17 of the returning soldiers. Many do not even knw that Iraq and Iran are different countries, even news broadcaster have made mistakes talking about one while naming the other

YES, obviously lie after lie, but Gobbels said,’if you tell a lie often enough, people will accept it as truth’.
Clearly, there are many such people on here. LOL.
It would also appear, there are many posters here with agendas persuing the lie to it’s limits.
What no one has ever spoken off, is Israel’s ambitions and it’s hopes/dreams of gaining all the land now occupied by other nations.
This will be done by whatever means available, and if it means denigrating other nations by telling lies, so what ? As they are not Jewish, it is permissable under the Torah.
Of course no one has mentioned the U.N. here on this issue, who state categoricaly there is no military nuclear program in Iran, as does the nuclear intelligence in the U.S. Should we also simply dismiss their findings as easily as do the Israelis ?
It’s interesting to note, that the people fighting and dying for the aspirations of Israel, are not Israelis.

27. Jimminy Cricket

The Shah said in 1974 or 1976 that Iran will have the nuclear bomb “sooner than most people think”. I didn’t know that most people were thinking of the year 2250. Iran wants the bomb like it wants to turn Christian. They’ve been pulling our chain with this “threat” for some 38 years now – almost as long as Lucy suckers poor Charlie Brown into thinking he’ll really get to kick the football this year.

Yes, it would be much better to rely on assurances from the Iranian government that it is not trying to build a nuclear bomb.

Andres moser.
Really? Name the computer viruses, name the scientists (you’ve) killed, what sabotage? – (besides the obvious attacts on the US). Oh do tell. Other than your claims AM, It’s the same old bla bla bla Iran has a bomb bla bla bla.


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