Trans: “I’m worried the Tories have got a big blond ace up their sleeve”

Trans 2 ‘Most Tory voters have moved out of London, it’s miraculous that a donkey with a red rosette isn’t mayor’.

Sunny have you moved to Bristol? Either that or your double has.

The trope being rehashed by Brogan that businesses want smaller government, less red tape etc really does need to be countered immediately whenever it appears. I’m neither a business expert nor an economist but I try to keep up. Listening to guests on radio 4 shows such as In Business and and Stephanomics and reading bits of the FT and the Indy one can gain some interesting insights. Many economists want real stimuli to the economy and a promise that things will get better, rather than this bitty, unconvincing approach with promises that there is worse austerity to come. Business leaders let the cat out of the bag in admitting that the UK has less red tape than our EU competitors, for example, and want government intervention in various areas to help them. There is certainly no consensus of the sort Brogan seems to believe in.

Boris didn’t win London against the odds – the London Mayoral elections are always about personality not party politics.

Isn’t that a compliment to Boris? You’re saying he has the right personality to attract voters and succeed in politics.

If Boris were PM he’d find that reducing taxes for the rich would look just as bad as it does now.

Maybe. But that would only happen after he becomes PM; it wouldn’t stop him from getting the job.

Are the electorate of Britain any less stupid than the electorate of London? Remember, its the 100,000 or so mostly right wing floating voters in the marginal seats that decide general elections in this country

He just about scraped victory against a Ken Livingstone in 2012, even though the latter had already lost earlier and stumbled through a series of damaging gaffes. Boris didn’t win London against the odds – the London Mayoral elections are always about personality not party politics

Hmm. A Tory winning London while the party were 20 points down was a massive achievement. That Boris was favourite was a testament to how strong a candidate he was, not how easy the win should be.

There is a risk that Johnson will become Conservative Party leader and there is a risk that he then becomes PM. That is an enormous risk for the country.

The first risk to the country is that he is someone who has very little experience. He has not been a Minister. His time as opposition spokesman was far from successful. Being Mayor of London is his first responsible political position and he has shirked off the responsibilities. He doesn’t hide the fact that he has passed on all his responsibilities to other people (which is not what Londoners expect of a directly-elected Mayor). His appearances before the Assembly and the press are much less than under Livingstone, shorter and much more tightly controlled. Johnson’s media image is tightly controlled.

The second risk to the country is that he is spending his time networking. He may therefore manage to garner enough supporters in the media and elsewhere to create the hype necessary to propel him to a position of power. But what will be the cost of that support? What does Murdoch expect to gain from being seen with Johnson? What is the unspoken bargain with the Daily Telegraph who pay him £ 5000 each week to blow his own trumpet and produce a string of trite, right-wing soundbites? What is the deal with the financial sector?

Johnson is very ambitious. He is not a team-player. He thinks that he is brilliant and is furious that Cameron, who he considers to be inferior, became PM. He may well do anything possible to become PM. But his ability to recite poems in Latin does not mean that he knows anything about the economy or foreign affairs or energy/education/health policy etc, and, not being a team-player, he may not ask those who do know. But getting to the top will have created a series of bargains and conflicts of interest that will then play out. Not good for the country.

Michael Gove is the one to watch out for.

Hundal:

I’m quite confident Boris is planning to throw his hat into the ring and positioning himself for 2015 if Cameron loses.

…except Johnson is Mayor until 2016, so the Tories would either have to leave Cameron as a ‘Dead Former PM Walking’ for at least a year and a half (assuming the coronation takes place a the Tory Conference) or some other poor sod has to keep the seat warm for Johnson (probably Hague) until he wins a convenient by-election. And then the Tories are assuming Johnson will walk it in 2020.

Given the state of the economy and Osborne’s stubbornness in rejecting anything resembling a Plan B, maybe the Tories regard a leadership race as an Olympic sport in contrast to all that ‘multi-cultural crap’ taking place in the ‘wrong’ part of London.

“That Boris was favourite was a testament to how strong a candidate he was”

It doesn’t – it simply indicates the extent to which Ken L had dropped the ball: it was little more than a popularity contest, and Ken had hurt himself in the popularity stakes.

People love clowns…

What is obvious from Brogan’s piece is that he only listens to conservatives who live within the M25. That’s not exactly a representative sample of the whole electorate.

Moreover, his assertion that Bozza campaigned on tax, workplace regulation, Europe and the size of Government is complete crap – none of these are within the remit of the Mayor (apart from the size of the GLA and bodies like TfL, and he’s looking the extend the reach of the latter):

http://zelo.tv/Qog4qy

Brogan should stop listening to the circle jerk that is ConHome and remember what happened the time he did that last year, fawning over Andy Coulson only to see him out of the door only three days later.

“That Boris was favourite was a testament to how strong a candidate he was”

(Trying again – don’t know what happened to my earlier attempt to post this).

It doesn’t though – it simply indicates the extent to which Ken L had dropped the ball.

It was a popularity contest, and Ken had hurt himself in the popularity stakes.

And everyone loves a clown…

Sunny, given your record on political predictions I’m off to the bookies to stick £20 on Boris becomming PM

Boris hasn’t a hope of becoming PM. Anyone who has spent any time working with Boris is highly critical of his application, mastery of detail and managerial skills.

The job of PM requires a lot more than a sunny disposition, interesting vocabulary and the ability to knock out a 500 word Daily Telegraph article in ten minutes.

It’s interesting that neither Brown nor Cameron seem able to properly master the job of PM. Cameron’s happiness to delegate just means he gets into all sorts of trouble when he (hardly unsurprisingly) doesn’t know all the details of complex NHS or welfare reforms.

Brown’s 20 hour working days so as to be able to master the detail drove him into a metaphorical early political grave.

And yet Boris wouldn’t have a chance of being even half as able as those two at actually doing the job.

Rupert ‘The Kingmaker’ Murdoch attends the Olympics this week, as Boris’ personal guest. I guess we’ll know soon enough if Murdoch decides to seriously endorse him.

@ 5 Phil Hunt

“Isn’t that a compliment to Boris? You’re saying he has the right personality to attract voters and succeed in politics.”

He’s saying he has the personality to win a personality contest but not the politics to win a political election. The London elections are way more personality-based than the national ones, going off media coverage alone, which is hardly surprising given you’re voting for an individual rather than a party*.

*Yeah, ok, technically you’re voting for an individual both times, but don’t tell me that the average voter has as much awareness of and interest in their preferred MP as the average London voter does for their preferred Mayor.

“Brown’s 20 hour working days so as to be able to master the detail drove him into a metaphorical early political grave.”

And his policies all worked out so well too!!

Johnson is the political head of the Metropolitan Police, which is investigating companies headed by Rupert Murdoch. Johnson is taking Murdoch to the Olympic swimming finals this week.

I’m not making any bets on whether or not Boris gets to be PM. Just take note of the conflicts of interest surrounding him and how few people in the media notice them.

“And his policies all worked out so well too!!”

Wasn’t for the want of real effort on his part though – a least he didn’t treat the gig like a hobby, in the manner of the current – inept – incumbent…

Boris could be come prime minsister. A goat dressed up in a blonde floppy wig and which had the ability to recite latin poems would be come prime minister. And what a era that would be! All hail goat!

5 it could also be that Livingstone wasn’t liked, Not becuase of the Eveiing standard but becuase of his record over 25 years

there’s no point worring about Boris becoming tory leader in 2015 if cam loses as up agaisnt Someone who has at least 4 better people who could be labour leader (yvette,Harriet Ed, or Andy b) Ed miliband won’t win the election anyway.

Oi planeshift, you cheeky bugger! What other political prediction did I make that turned out wrong?

This article really does show how worried the ‘left’ are that someone is attracting public support and that these pesky voters might actually like him.

Everybody knows that Livingstone would never have done this – and they are pleased with the support and charisma Boris give to 2012.

Shinsei1967: “It’s interesting that neither Brown nor Cameron seem able to properly master the job of PM”

One astute observation of Enoch Powell was to comment that all political careers end in failure.

Mrs Thatcher was effectively sacked by her Cabinet in 1990; John Major found it politically necessary to resign as leader of the Conservatives part way through his term of office to seek re-election; Tony Blair lost 4 million votes between the 1997 and 2005 elections . .

Aye, but the difference is Dave’s has *begun* with failure.

“This article really does show how worried the ‘left’ are that someone is attracting public support and that these pesky voters might actually like him.”

Errr… Doesn’t that sum up the concerns of those involved in every election scenario, ever?

Thanks for the insight.

Boris Johnson as UK PM would be analagous to Berlusconi as Italian PM. A showboating, rascally maverick, winning over the waverers with his cheeky personality….amorality with a smirk, moral corruption as an ironic gag. The thing is, Silvio only managed that with a near total control of his country’s media, and as people have angrily found out, that didn’t turn out too well in the end. It’s all very well enjoying the spectacle of a clown when his only responsibility is a few transport and housing budgets in the capital. I don’t think the wider British public would really stand for this faux-pratfalling cabaret turn on the international stage. And I don’t think his serial sexual incontinence would play well in the OAP Tory heartlands either.

So yes, please bring on Boris as Tory leader, the sooner the better!