‘Cameron will be a half-term premier’


by Sunny Hundal    
7:32 pm - May 7th 2012

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Kelvin MacKenzie has a column in today’s Daily Mail.

Don’t worry, you don’t have to read through all the bile and anti-Scottish stereotyping. I’ve picked up the relevant bit for you:

I like a bet and sensed a killing was to be made when I saw a throwaway line in a Sunday paper. It said Rebekah Brooks, former chief executive of News International, was prepared to make public all the texts and emails sent between her and David Cameron.

Considering what might be in this correspondence, I asked Ladbrokes to give me odds on Cameron not being Prime Minister by the end of November. At 10-1, I wagered £1,000.

I always thought he would be a one-term premier; I didn’t realise he would be a half-term premier.

If I win, I will give my jackpot to the Help For Heroes charity. If I lose, though, I will have to stop reading the Sunday papers.

Unlikely, and Kelvin MacKenzie is hardly known for his observations, but still fun to think about.

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About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments


1. James McGraw

£1000 presumably isn’t much to MacKenzie, and the attention this has generated is cheap at the price. I agree that I’d like it to be true, though!

But what happens then? They’re rigged, sorry, reformed parliamentary terms so we’d still be stuck with this Government for another three years – so no real change.

@David

If we can’t have an election until the end of the five year term, but Cameron was forced out by say his own resignation or a vote of no confidence (not saying this is likely but go with it), wouldn’t this result in Nick Clegg becoming Prime Minister? Isn’t that the only point of the Deputy PM role, to have someone to step in?

Though to be fair, PM Nick Clegg would have just as much of a mandate to rule as PM David Cameron.

@James

I can’t see the Conservatives letting that happen!

The coalition would collapse and then either the Tories would rule as a minority government until 2015 or the Libs will hook up with Labour until 2015. Just a thought.

But really it depends what is still to come out of this business with Brookes.

Brooks and Cameron haven’t fallen out, have they? All she has to do is delete the incriminating texts and then she can help absolve him by handing over a load of emails about horses or whatever.

7. Matt Heath

The referencing is a bit flaky but Wikipedia claims that under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act a no-confidence vote triggers an automatic election (unless overturned by vote of confidence within two weeks). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

8. Strategist

Sounds like Rebekah is attempting a blackmail, with Kel-boy aiding and abetting (as well as a-betting). She’s not up before Leveson yet, and there’s plenty of time to do a deal. I wonder what Cameron would promise to the Murdochs in exchange for Rebekah swearing on oath that there’s nothing incriminating in the texts.
I’m quite Kelvin will get his grand back, and not from Ladbrokes.

9. Badstephen

The only significance in Kelvin’s piece is that his casually throwing a grand away shows him to be just as much as a man of the people as Mitt Romney offering Rick Perry a ten grand bet

10. Robert Darlington

Matt Heath: I thought the first thing the did upon taking control was making votes of no confidence more difficult. I believe it was in the same legislation as the fixed terms.

11. Mr James

Lee @ 6 & Strategist @ 8

It is my understanding that you cannot delete Text Messages & E-Mails entirely because there is always a blue print that you cannot destroy that is usually held by the texts service provider and that of the e-mail provider. Surely the police can gain this information during their investigation.

Please correct me if I am wrong ?

Even if other people reading this post have knowledge or information regarding how this information is held please contribute to these comments. It would be interesting.

Thank You.

The main problem with a no-confidence vote is that Clegg has pledged his, and his party’s, support. And as LibDem MPs have not a single functioning gonad – or conscience – between them, the chances of them telling Clegg to bugger off are effectively zero.

“Considering what might be in this correspondence, I asked Ladbrokes to give me odds on Cameron not being Prime Minister by the end of November. At 10-1, I wagered £1,000.”

- surely not a case of a former News International editor benefiting financially from inside information? I hope Ladbrokes refuse to pay him when his hope comes true.

the way the fixed-term parliaments act is that the prime minister can no longer call a general election and the next one is scheduled for the first thursday in may 2015. if a simple majority of mp’s a motion of no confidence, the house is given two weeks to put together a new government within the house before the queen dissolves parliament. however, if two-thirds of mp’s pass a motion for a general election, then one is called.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Gayle

    Kelvin McK bets a grand Cam gone by Nov http://t.co/hbN0VqXj

  2. Robert Exley

    ICYMI – Kelvin MacKenzie makes a £1000 bet that David Cameron will be a half-term premier http://t.co/V6lK5zsP

  3. Gayle

    @TomHarrisMP http://t.co/hbN0VqXj

  4. Gayle

    lots of queries on and RT's on the "Cam gone by Nov" bet by KelvinMcK :-) am off to bed thinking happy thoughts http://t.co/hbN0VqXj :-)

  5. Lisa Chalkley

    lots of queries on and RT's on the "Cam gone by Nov" bet by KelvinMcK :-) am off to bed thinking happy thoughts http://t.co/hbN0VqXj :-)

  6. Daniel Baker

    lots of queries on and RT's on the "Cam gone by Nov" bet by KelvinMcK :-) am off to bed thinking happy thoughts http://t.co/hbN0VqXj :-)

  7. David O'Keefe

    http://liberalconspiracy.org/2012/05/07/mackenzie-cameron-will-be-a-half-term-premier/

  8. Dugald Baird

    Kelvin MacKenzie bets a £1,000 David Cameron will be gone by November http://t.co/cah8hZnq (via @sunny_hundal)

  9. Scarlet INside

    Pressure, Presssure, PRESSSSURE….. http://t.co/NerhbVsV

  10. EB Bugler/rtwtr@NE36

    ICYMI – Kelvin MacKenzie makes a £1000 bet that David Cameron will be a half-term premier http://t.co/V6lK5zsP

  11. Alex Braithwaite

    ‘Cameron will be a half-term premier’ | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/ZvETk2kN via @libcon

  12. Neil Bradley

    Kelvin MacKenzie predicts: "Cameron will be a half-term premier" http://t.co/V6lK5zsP <- first time I hope he's right

  13. Carole Ford

    ‘Cameron will be a half-term premier’ | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/MtsdgMJ7 via @libcon

  14. Carole Ford

    @lbc973 @IainDale According to Kelvin M. Cameron will be 1/2 term.premier’ | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/MtsdgMJ7 via @libcon

  15. Carole Ford

    @NickFerrariLBC Cameron will be a half-term premier’ |http://t.co/MtsdgMJ7 via @libcon

  16. Barrington Smith

    ‘Cameron will be a half-term premier’ | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/OkwgyNIe via @libcon





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