The NHS bill could be a Waterloo moment for the govt
10:35 am - February 9th 2012
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Yesterday evening the government suffered its first defeat on the NHS bill, with Peers narrowly winning on an amendment that called for greater emphasis on mental health provision. No doubt this will only be the first in a long series of setbacks for them.
There’s little point in calling for Andrew Lansley to go, frankly, even now. Cameron knows that firing him would almost certainly kill the bill and be a serious setback to the government. He can’t afford to fire him – the media firestorm would seriously damage him. So he’s stuck in a lose-lose situation.
But some dispute that, saying the NHS bill only angers the usual suspects who would vote Labour anyway.
The right-wing columnist Iain Martin blogs:
Anway, Janan Ganesh of the Economist tweeted that Miliband winning on health doesn’t matter, as it is an issue where people expect Labour to be ahead. To really have an impact Labour needs to be making the running where the party is traditionally weak. I know what Janan means, but I’m not sure that he’s right on this one.
This NHS row is fast becoming a quite basic argument about competence, or government incompetence. That has broader potential significance because in time it could erode Cameron’s reputation.
Yes indeed: incompetence in dealing with the NHS and incompetence in growing the economy & reducing unemployment is how Labour need to define this government. Not ‘out of touch’ but just ‘incompetent’.
But for that to happen properly, Labour has to ensure this massive shake-up of the NHS is firmly etched in the public’s brain. Remember, most people don’t pay attention to Westminster debates.
The row has already scared some voters. At the election, 33% of voters felt Tories could best handle the NHS. That has declined by nearly 10pts since then.
Health is now the third most important issue rated by voters as important to them.
The problem for the govt is when things do start to go wrong – and they absolutely will – voters will automatically blame Cameron. In fact, even if it’s not directly his fault they will blame him because they will vaguely remember this big fight.
This is why Labour need to keep loudly attacking the Conservatives on the NHS bill (to their credit, they are). They need to make as much noise as possible so that voters associate this massive NHS upheaval with the Tories.
At the last election, approval of the NHS was at its highest for a generation. If that decreases then the Conservatives have to be associated with that. That is the only way to ensure they pay the political price for the human cost.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments
Absolutely spot on – and although Labour are trying hard to keep this boiling over, the problem Miliband has is that Blair pushed through privatisation of sections the NHS previously.
This allows the coalition to shout back “You did the same!” and takes the sting out of Labours point.. just as Evil Clegg repeatedly did the other day at Dept PMQs.
No one seems to pick up on the small fact that someone else doing something wrong previously is no justification to do it again.
Imagine if the rioters could have used the same excuse..
I very much hope you’re right.This bill is arrogant in the extreme and assumes that the public are idiots who are so distracted by X Factor and Heat magazine that they won’t notice the decline in their healthcare standards. Labour need to make the point loudly that the Coalition are attempting to insult our intelligence by pushing it through. That now is the time to stop taking the NHS for granted.
Fwiw I wrote to my Labour MP about it the other day, no doubt he is already against the bill but it doesn’t hurt to remind him that his constituents know/care about it.
Still waiting for firm commitment from Labour to overturn every aspect of the stupid NHS Bill (and also Welfare Reform Bill). Why do Labour wait to see how the wind is blowing before they decide what there policy is on everything? They are so scared of being seen a for the working class, or for claimants, or for the poor, that they have ended up rudderless and shadowing, mimicking and re-enforcing the Condems.
The Opposition should be promising an Inquiry into how Lansley has acted: instituting reforms before the Act has Royal Assent, twisting the arms of GPs to implement reforms by threatening them with take-over by private companies if they don’t implement reforms ahead of the Royal Assent, railroading MPs to accept the Bill because it has laready been partially implemented.
Its become very obvious now that Cameron doesn’t believe in the bill himself, and nor do many of his colleagues. He is soldiering on with it through a mixture of vanity and weakness. Politically, they believe they can’t afford to admit what a dog’s breakfast Lansley has cooked up, so they’re going to try and push it through anyway.
Now remember that if and when the predicted disasters come to pass. Remember it when the human costs of these “reforms” see the light of day.
The effects of this bill should be hung round the Tories’ necks forever.
I have said this consistently since the White Paper was published (and I said it before the election, after I had read the Tories’ NHS Autonomy and Accountability policy document) the Tories cannot win on the NHS and it will be their downfall. By going for such a big upheaval they are making matters worse for them.
Tory NHS reform should always have been a second term policy: “fix the economy then fix the NHS” should have been Tory mantra. They are doing neither, of course, but at least they could say at the next election “we didn’t realise how bad the economy way, but we did try”. They won’t be able to say this about the NHS.
Further, and worse, Cameron and Lansley have politicised many people through their cack-handed NHS policy. This means that at the next election they’ll find some very conservative (small c) people saying that it was a disaster to allow the Tories to get anywhere near the NHS. It took four elections for normally non-political people to realise that the Tories had to go, Cameron has managed this in half a parliament, and that is due to the NHS reforms.
It’ll either be a waterloo for the coalition or for every British human. Lets hope its the latter.
(English human I should say)
Masu. Labour used the private sector mainly to reduce waiting times, to supplement NHS services rather than to replace them.
Michael Portillo said on ‘This Week’ some months ago that the Tories didn’t tell us of their plans for the NHS during the election campaign because they knew they wouldn’t have been elected if they had. Not that they were elected, of course. I hope that anyone tempted to vote for the Lib Dems in future, either from conviction or tactically, will remember how they’ve not only allowed Lansley to proceed with his plans but have supported him in the lobbies.
I wish that Labour would make more of what is really behind this legislation. It’s payback time for those private healthcare firms which have bankrolled the Tories to the tune of at least £750 million since Cameron became their leader, and which even contributed to Lansley’s private office.
Labour need to say they will reverse any changes to the NHS. I can still remember the ever longer waiting lists for operations during 18 years of tory governments.
I’m not really sure that the polls do support the idea that Health is a growing weakness for the Conservatives. The YouGov tracker shows that most of the drop for the Tories as the Party best able to handle the ‘problem’ of the NHS happened before 2011 and before when Lansley machinations had begun to be noticed (certainly before the current Bill appeared).
Most people don’t work in Health and/or take and interest in how the NHS is organised. For them the changes are suspicious but incomprehensible. It may well have the potential to undermine trust in the Conservatives, particularly as they are depending heavily on their support among their over-60s, but it hasn’t happened yet.
As for Labour their support is also lower on Health than it has been – in the mid-30s. Only ‘none of them’ is a consistent gainer. This is partly because Lansley is only following a slightly more extreme version of the previous government’s policies. For Labour to regain trust on the NHS it first has to apologise for the direction it took it in, rather than pretending that under them the NHS was some sort of lost Eden.
It also has to fight harder against what is being proposed. Even easy targets such as the vast amount of money Lansley has already wasted on these ‘reforms’ are being missed.
Labour need to say they will reverse any changes to the NHS.
They have. Or at least Andy Burnham has said he’ll reverse as much as possible. It would be irresponsible to say they’ll commit to reversing everything since reversing some of it would push NHS through another costly and tearing upheaval…
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
- fauxpaschick
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
- Chris Paul
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
- Girl Interrupted
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
- Simon Barrow
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
- Welfare Advocate
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
- Liza Harding
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
- Izzy Green
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
- Chris Salter
The NHS bill could be a Waterloo moment for the govt | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/2Hs28C9h #ppnews
- Roger Bliss
The NHS bill WILL SINK THIS GOVERNMENT | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/YRohULgM via @libcon…..Cameron TAKE NOTE!
- UNISON Health
The NHS bill could be a Waterloo moment for the govt http://t.co/dmAneSpn
- Kevin Donovan
Why the NHS bill will be more destructive to their standing than the government thinks http://t.co/Cm8A5yYz (last plug)
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