Is the Left really in retreat across Europe?
The Left is retreating around the world. The Great Recession has produced a landscape so favourable for right-wing parties, their opponents can only feel sorry for themselves as they watch support drain away from them. At least, so goes the popular narrative.
At the last Labour Conference, Douglas Alexander said: “for a decade around 1997, the centre left was defeating the right. Now the centre right is beating the left”. Matthew D’Ancona agreed, with the assertion “across Europe centre-Left parties are in electoral retreat”.
But the last 12 months don’t bear out the argument that the Left is on a losing streak.
What we see instead is that while the main centre-left parties have indeed lost some ground to the main centre-right parties, left and centre-left parties have generally done slightly better than parties of the right and centre-right.
If we look just at the performance of the main centre-left party in each country, and compare it with the result for the main party of the centre-right, we do indeed see a drop for the centre-left. The average swing is about 2pts to the main centre-right party.
But that’s only part of the picture.
If we count all parties of the left and centre-left, and compare them with all parties of the right and centre-right, the result is reversed.
Now, we see left parties gaining slightly, and right parties falling back a little. The average swing is about 1pt to the left parties.
So it seems that the main parties of the centre-left are having a slightly harder time than their counterparts on the centre-right. But their voters generally haven’t crossed the political divide. Instead, they’ve split to smaller parties on the left, and perhaps have picked up a small number of extra supporters from the Right.
Given that most of these countries have proportionate systems and are ruled by coalitions, the result has been a slight move towards more governments by parties of the left (two gains for the Left, one gain from the centre for the Right). Clearly that is an outcome that wouldn’t translate easily to Britain, were the results to be replicated.
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The methodology and a longer version of this post is at Noise of the Crowd
* Title of article changed from ‘the world’ to just ‘Europe’ to be more technically accurate
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Leo is a regular contributor to Liberal Conspiracy. He manages communications for a small policy organisation, and writes about polling and info from public opinion surveys at Noise of the Crowd
· Other posts by Leo Barasi
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Reader comments
Of course, it would help if we had another centre left party apart from the Greens. All the other parties are fighting over the Thatcherite centre right mantle.
In France the socialists are front runners (although they are serial bodgers of election victories).
In the US, Obama is likely to be re-elected and in Germany Merkel is facing an uphill battle.
The landscape could look very different by December 2013.
Time will tell and politics is like a pendulum. If the right parties don’t fix the economy with their ideas and don’t deliver growth and jobs then people will look elsewhere but the left will need to shout louder to get heard.
Perhaps a more accurate question on where the Left is in political terms is what is happening to Left wing ideals across the globe? It doesn’t really matter if in Britain, for example, the Labour Party eventually overturn the Tory/Lib Dem axis, because it is not a ‘victory’ for the Centre Left, it will be a victory for Centre, bordering on Centre Right ideology.
There is very little ‘Left wing’ on the Labour front bench.
In this article:
Matthew D’Ancona agreed, with the assertion “across Europe centre-Left parties are in electoral retreat”.
In the longer Noise of the Crowd article
Fraser Nelson agreed, with the assertion “across Europe centre-Left parties are in electoral retreat”.
At the last Labour Conference, Douglas Alexander said: “for a decade around 1997, the centre left was defeating the right. Now the centre right is beating the left”. Matthew D’Ancona agreed, with the assertion “across Europe centre-Left parties are in electoral retreat”.
Alas, I live in the UK and entirely missed out on the economic Left trumping the Right in the mid-Nineties. We just had another decade or so of Thatcherism.
Right-wing economics got us into the current mess. State socialism died in the late Eighties. They are both obsolete.
It seems, in my highly subjective view, that the political weather has changed in this year of protest and unrest. The initial response to the crisis was a desire to balance budgets and get over the crisis, and was unfavourable to left wing parties. Now we’re seeing what austerity is like, pay at the top is actually going up, and the economic outlook has actually got worse, people are poorer. I think we will see more of a shift to the left as a result.
I read an article some time ago saying that it took a few years after the 1929 crash for the left to do well in many countries. I suspect this will happen now – if the left can be organised and have good ideas. Neoliberalism is dead, but what will replace it?
I’m with Marx on this one, it won’t be until the right are allowed free reign that the left will rise.
6
Although I don’t agree with your term ‘state socialism’, it was capitalism with a bigger welfare state than Thatcher would have liked, it is precisely the left attempting to tinker with capitalism that has always failed.
Erm, anyone here heard of south america. Only one country there (or maybe two – depending on how you treat French Guiana) has a right-wing government.
Africa, tends to elect left-wing governments also. Indeed, even the Islamic parties coming to power in north Africa are probably best described as left-wing, as they clearly believe in state control of things.
So I assume this article is more about a certain subset of the world, where the left wing parties are not doing well in elections in the main?
How about we try something we haven’t had for the longest time – actual, proper liberalism? Surely the 20th century showed us that big state solutions, be they ‘leftwing’ or ‘rightwing’ do not work and tend to produce massive wars.
Instead of repeating the terrible errors of the 1930s, lets try peace, free trade and individual liberty. Look around; black uniforms, clamping down on freedom, hyping fear at every turn, constant wars. Is it not worth at least considering going back to true liberalism?
10
Yep, totally agree
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
- Liberal Conspiracy
Is the Left really in retreat across the world? http://t.co/STIgxPMQ
- Thomas Gardiner
We have been since the 70s due to spineless oafs like LabourRT @libcon: Is the Left really in retreat across the world? http://t.co/BbBukG85
- Gareth Nicholas
RT @libcon: Is the Left really in retreat across the world? http://t.co/mdBRRwIp < only if by 'the world' you mean 'Europe'
- lee james brown
RT @libcon: Is the Left really in retreat across the world? http://t.co/NtTjcKMS < pls retitle as its only abt europe. Lat Am left v strong.
- leftlinks
Liberal Conspiracy – Is the Left really in retreat across the world? http://t.co/0tdbWXMy
- Patron Press - #P2
#UK : Is the Left really in retreat across the world? http://t.co/uo43yQTi
- Robert CP
Is the Left really in retreat across the world? http://t.co/STIgxPMQ
- sunny hundal
Are parties on the Left really in retreat across Europe? Actually no, says @leobarasi – http://t.co/3PaBRoG1
- Tim
Is the Left really in retreat across Europe? | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/sBX8SELk via @libcon
- Joe Lock
Are parties on the Left really in retreat across Europe? Actually no, says @leobarasi – http://t.co/3PaBRoG1
- MorganGD
Are parties on the Left really in retreat across Europe? Actually no, says @leobarasi – http://t.co/3PaBRoG1
- Rachel Briggs
Are parties on the Left really in retreat across Europe? Actually no, says @leobarasi – http://t.co/3PaBRoG1
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