Unemployment could hit 3m by summer


8:20 am - January 19th 2012

by Richard Exell    


      Share on Tumblr

I had a post at Left Foot Forward, looking at yesterday’s labour market statistics.

Unemployment is up 118,000 – if it continues rising at the rate it has in recent months, it will reach three million by this summer:

There seems to be some reason for optimism in the fact that employment also went up – admittedly, by just 18,000, but that is better than a fall.

Unfortunately, as I show in my post, the improvement in employment is largely due to increases in part-time and self-employment. The number of employees working full-time fell by 140,000.

The increase in self-employment wouldn’t be a problem if it indicated a burst of new entrepreneurship – or was even just an increase in people living out their dream of being their own boss.

But a whole series of indicators suggest that the labour market is actually very soft: the outlook for insecure workers and people looking for jobs is grim.

    Share on Tumblr   submit to reddit  


About the author
Richard is an regular contributor. He is the TUC’s Senior Policy Officer covering social security, tax credits and labour market issues.
· Other posts by


Story Filed Under: News

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.


Reader comments


Has unemployment ever risen in the summer months?

I have never heard of the statistical approach that you use here:
IF unemployment continues to rise at the same rate it has risen in recent months FOR EVER, then it will actually hit 100% one day.

You can always pick a few months in any statistic and then extrapolate them into eternity. What’s the point of this?
IF I had continued to grow at the pace I had grown from 10 to 14 years, I would be 25 m tall now.

You know, yesterday was a good 7 degrees warmer than Tuesday. It temperatures continue to rise at this rate, by the Summer we’ll all be burned to death!

4. Chaise Guevara

@ 2 and 3

Quite.

http://xkcd.com/605/

4 – xkcd.com FTW

What about Nassim Taleb’s turkeys before Thanksgiving?

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook_files/image002.jpg

“Based on historical trends, our projections show that population numbers should keep increasing. We look to the upcoming Thanksgiving season with confidence…”

7. Chaise Guevara

@ 5

Damn straight!

The increase in self-employment wouldn’t be a problem if it indicated a burst of new entrepreneurship – or was even just an increase in people living out their dream of being their own boss.

It does indicate these things doesn’t it? If not you don’t seem to explain your reasons for saying this at all.

Poorly written sensationalist bull crap.

“Unemployment could hit 3m by the summer”

Predictably, there will be much wringing of hands by Cameron in public – along with lots of flashy new window dressing, like a new London airport in 20 years time.

10. Leon Wolfeson

@8 – No, replacing what would be full time employment roles with “contractors” to reduce costs is NOT “becoming your own boss”. There’s a reason the ASI have been calling on employers to only use contractors…


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/YdxW99UZ

  2. Mike Smart

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/YdxW99UZ

  3. Nicola Chan

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/YdxW99UZ

  4. Legal Aware

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/YdxW99UZ

  5. sunny hundal

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  6. Tracy Young

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  7. Ruwayda Mustafah

    And depression rate? 'UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate' http://t.co/aatV1oDH v @sunny_hundal

  8. S K

    And depression rate? 'UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate' http://t.co/aatV1oDH v @sunny_hundal

  9. Tony Thomas

    And depression rate? 'UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate' http://t.co/aatV1oDH v @sunny_hundal

  10. dear

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  11. VirtualResistance

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  12. Ludger Krusenbaum

    And depression rate? 'UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate' http://t.co/aatV1oDH v @sunny_hundal

  13. Ben Murphy

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  14. Debbie Jolly

    RT @libcon Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/z6n9kSwY

  15. green heart

    And depression rate? 'UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate' http://t.co/aatV1oDH v @sunny_hundal

  16. leftlinks

    Liberal Conspiracy – Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/y1ucqdqF

  17. mellonicoley

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  18. tracy e

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  19. Spir.Sotiropoulou

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/SyaSoCay via @libcon

  20. Kyle

    And depression rate? 'UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate' http://t.co/aatV1oDH v @sunny_hundal

  21. Richard Exell

    My post: Unemployment could hit 3m by summer – http://t.co/QoDTCojw

  22. Gemma Tumelty

    RT @RichardExell: My post: Unemployment could hit 3m by summer – http://t.co/moxSk3iV

  23. lilac

    UK unemployment could hit 3 million by summer if it keeps rising at this rate http://t.co/CFME52qs #callingOsborne

  24. Lanie Ingram

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/YdxW99UZ

  25. Joseph Rowntree Fdn.

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/3MtC8Y7X via @libcon #ukpoverty

  26. KAAL Group

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/3MtC8Y7X via @libcon #ukpoverty

  27. simon stevens

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/3MtC8Y7X via @libcon #ukpoverty

  28. Matt Smith

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/3MtC8Y7X via @libcon #ukpoverty

  29. Adam Williams

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/3MtC8Y7X via @libcon #ukpoverty

  30. Richard Coleman

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/3MtC8Y7X via @libcon #ukpoverty

  31. Dom Smith

    Unemployment could hit 3m by summer http://t.co/3MtC8Y7X via @libcon #ukpoverty

  32. Obama’s state of the union address: Response and reactions | Left Foot Forward « Dr Alf's Blog

    […] Unemployment could hit 3m by summer (liberalconspiracy.org) Rate this: Share this:PrintEmailMoreTwitterLinkedInRedditTumblrStumbleUponFacebookDiggLike this:LikeBe the first to like this post. […]





Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.