“it seems to me likely that inflation will not increase next year on the grounds that if you were a company planning to raise prices you’d probably choose to do so now when everyone else is doing it …”

Inflation is (a) domestic and (b) imported. Causes of (a) include trade union and producer greed. Causes of (b) include rising commodity prices and a devaluing currency.

http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2011/12/15/uk-data-wrap-weak-not-recessionary.html

There is plenty of bearish sentiment and it is easy to find reinforcing trends in the data. Therefore, one has to look for evidence why the consensus may be wrong. Too many people are forming opinions based on the High St. Around 12% of all purchases are now through the internet and that as much as depressed consumer demand is killing the High St. There clearly is a global manufacturing slowdown and that can be seen in the decline of commodities. However, how do you explain last months good trade figures? The previous month was poor so they may have been rebounding from a low base. Still, exports grew by 9% and reached record levels. Moreover, if consumer demand is so poor why have imports not declined even more?

There are certainly arguments to support you about 2012, just not as overwhelming as you think. The Standard Chartered economist certainly agrees with you about 2012. He has been the most accurate forecaster over the last two years. His forecast is not for weak growth like most people, but a decline of 1.7% for 2012. If that happens the UK triple A will be gone within the next 18 months.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/13/795881/the-uks-inflation-myth/