Published: December 8th 2011 - at 4:36 pm

Why it looks like Newt Gingrich may be the Republican nominee


by Guest    

contribution by Marcus Roberts

Newt Gingrich should not be leading in the polls. And now that he is, it won’t last. He can’t be the nominee. He’s not a disciplined candidate. He doesn’t stick to his talking points. He doesn’t kiss the ring of the Religious Right.

His entire senior staff resigned for heavens sake. And Karl Rove says he doesn’t have the early states organization he needs to win . So he can’t be the nominee. Right?

Wrong.

Because Karl Rove should remember his own adage from 2004: “momentum trumps organization”.

But it gets worst for poor Mitt. Because if there is one thing that a majority of Republican voters can agree on (asides from hating Obama) it’s that they can’t stand Romney. That’s why they flirted with Michelle Bachmann back in Iowa (before she turned out to be crazy), toyed with that handsome Texan Rick Perry (before he forgot everything on stage) and even dated Herman Cain (before they found out that he seems to have dated everyone else).

So the conventional wisdom has crystallised around the idea that, in expert DC watcher Ari Berman’s words: “there are two primaries: the primary to be the anyone other then Mitt Romney, and then the actual primary, which Mitt Romney will actually win.”

And that made sense except for those pesky voters. Or should I say, pollsters.

Because according to them Gingrich is running the table on Romney across the states. Now this is all what veteran horserace watcher Mark Halperin rightly describes as a “static analysis” but the thing about taking a snapshot and predicting the future on that basis is that if things don’t change then that indeed does happen.

And the basic truth of this Republican race continues to be that 4/5 GOP primary voters will support anyone other then Romney. If just half of them coalesce around Newt as the ‘Stop Romney’ candidate then all the organization in the world won’t save Romney and the White House will laugh it’s way to re-election.

But for my part, I still think it will be Romney. Afterall, American politics is a game for professionals, run by professionals, commented on sagely by professionals. And the voters never get to upset the plans and prognostications of us professionals. Right…?


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Reader comments


Democrats should pray he doesn’t win.

He’s ten times more intelligent than Obama and one hundred times the politician. If you look on Amazon books, he’s probably the most well read politician in the Western world.

His Contract with America was one of the most disciplined and well led political insurgencies in modern political history. Newt understands how decisions are made, Obama does not. Just look at the pigs ear he made of health reform, despite 2 big majorities.

The OP rightly suggests he doesn’t have the baggage that comes with sucking up to the religious right. They will endorse him anyway btw. He’s a genuine fiscal conservative whose tough on defense. This is a nightmare opponent for Obama if he wins.

Gingrich will get the nomination because he has been fighting the culture wars against liberals for 30 years. He understands what gets the repub republican base fired up. Namely culture wars and pissing off liberals.

This is the man who went after Clinton’s penis, while at the same time having an affair himself. He has no shame, but he gives the republican hicks the war on liberals they crave.

The Democrats and media certainly want it to be Romney because they know Obam, with far lower popularity figures than ant Predident who goy re-elected and far worse unemployment ones than ditto is not going to win & Romney is the only Republican not committed to getting out of recession and the principles of the Constitution.

Thats why Obama’s “hired muscle” set up the false sex smears against Cain. If they thought either that Romney was the best candidate or that Obama wasn’t already toast they would have smeared him.

That is how politics is run on the statist illiberal “left” because they have lost all the intellectual arguments.

“If you look on Amazon books, he’s probably the most well read politician in the Western world. ”

Hardly. Gingrich peddles softcore fantasies for the rightwing mind, including a set of truly appalling civil war novels that are both ill-written and wildly at variance with historical fact. Let’s remember that Gingrich washed out as an historian at a not particularly stellar college, was run out of Washington on a rail for ethics violations of ever kind, and has enjoyed historically low favorability among the American people for a very long time. He consistently falls in love with bad ideas of all varieties and then tries to pretend he never defended them. In sum, he is a stupid person’s vision of what an intellectual ought to be.

Newt has an interesting view on the sanctity of marriage. His current squeeze was having a six year affair with him while he was married to his second wife. And wife number 2 took over from wife number 1 who Newt dumped on her death bed at the hospital.

Real conservative man of character.

It’s Ron Paul I feel sorry for, not even a squeak of a mention.

7. DisgustedOfTunbridgeWells

He’s a genuine fiscal conservative

Not really, a fairly famous article on the matter – http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1554/is_n3_v19/ai_14685580/

whose tough on defense.

See above;

Cobb pulled down almost $3.4 billion from Washington in fiscal 1992. A good chunk came from the Pentagon, which owns a huge, Lockheed-operated aircraft manufacturing plant in Marietta, the county seat. Nobody would call Cobb an economic disaster area; the 1990 median family income was $41,297, 37 percent better than the national median. But even minus military contracts, Cobb was absorbing federal dollars at a $2,308,330-a-day clip.

Alright for some.

I am sorry but has anybody cared yo watch any Ron Paul on You tube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji_G0MqAqq8
That guy is all over You tube.

He is a genius. The only guy not to vote against the constitution. A liberatarian and a follower i think of The school of Austrian economics.

He’s ten times more intelligent than Obama and one hundred times the politician.

Wonderfully deluded. Is this is why Newt Gingrich’s negatives were so high just a few months ago with Republicans? While they may have short memories, independent voters won’t.

Remember ‘Paul Ryan’s plan is dangerous’ and the u-turn after that?

I’m actually praying he becomes the nominee

tory:

“He’s ten times more intelligent than Obama and one hundred times the politician.”

Paul Krugman:

“Newt Gingrich is a stupid person’s idea of what a smart person sounds like”.

Who to believe? It’s a no-brainer!

11. gastro george

@8 “a follower i think of The school of Austrian economics.”

So a brain-dead cave-dweller, then.

I think this article is wrong and biased. read these facts.

If you’ve noticed a lack of Ron Paul in the mainstream media’s coverage of the 2012 presidential race, it might not be an accident. After he placed first in a Fox News poll, the outlet has removed the results from their website without explanation.
Fox had launched an online poll to gauge readers’ opinions on last night’s Republican show-down and asked their audience, “Which GOP presidential candidate do you think won the Fox News/Google debate?” At one point Paul placed in first, with 30 percent of the votes, but a reader of Infowars.com has pointed out that the poll has disappeared from the website, or has been shuffled to another page far from the front of Fox’s political coverage.
Logging onto the poll now produces an error in which the user is told “No content item selected.”
A screen shot of the poll produced by Infowars shows that Paul led with 24,894 votes, with Mitt Romney trailing in second place with 22,656
source.http://rt.com/usa/news/fox-paul-debate-poll-257/
Our media is bias..

@ 1 Tory,

“He’s a genuine fiscal conservative”

This is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read on Lib Con.

@ 8 Jay Cee,

“[Ron Paul] is a genius. The only guy not to vote against the constitution. A liberatarian and a follower i think of The school of Austrian economics.”

No doubt about it, Ron Paul is hardcore Austrian.

@ 6 Cylux,

“It’s Ron Paul I feel sorry for, not even a squeak of a mention.”

Don’t worry, that’s what the comment thread is for!

@ 5 Sally,

“And wife number 2 took over from wife number 1 who Newt dumped on her death bed at the hospital.”

That’s right, and that’s the real measure of that piece of trash Gingrich.

Obama wins the next election easily. None of the Republican nominees are electable for many massive reasons that will illuminated more fully when the Democrat goons decide they want to do so (particularly Gingrich, the guy is a turd). Past that all the Republicans are scary crazy, so the vote will come out for Obama, and to seal the deal he killed Bin Laden. And he made it look -awesome-. I mean have you seen those shots of him watching the mission play out? They look like they were from the set of 24 or something.

Plus the favours he’s been doing for Big Pharma and Wall Street are bound to pay out. You don’t tongue as much butthole as Obama has without earning a few favours.

I mean part of me thinks, “It’s the economy, stupid!” but I just don’t think that gets a Republican elected. Not after the last couple of years where they went to the matt, fighting tooth and nail, even threatening to crash the entire economy, just to protect the rich.

The big problem a lot of people have with Obama is that he was too much of a Republican, it’s the same problem Clinton had, and it’s not terminal at the ballot box.

16. So Much For Subtlety

15. Monglor

Obama wins the next election easily.

Obama was utterly unelectable last election. It took a special set of circumstances to get him over the line – including a wholesale media suck-fest. Now people have seen what he is like, they don’t like it. A dead turkey could beat Obama next time around. He is even losing Black voters.

and to seal the deal he killed Bin Laden. And he made it look -awesome-. I mean have you seen those shots of him watching the mission play out? They look like they were from the set of 24 or something.

Actually he bungled it by announcing the news too early. And he did not look awesome. He looked like an irrelevant bystander.

Plus the favours he’s been doing for Big Pharma and Wall Street are bound to pay out. You don’t tongue as much butthole as Obama has without earning a few favours.

That is probably true. He was always the Big Money candidate. But I don’t think that is going to save him this time.

The big problem a lot of people have with Obama is that he was too much of a Republican, it’s the same problem Clinton had, and it’s not terminal at the ballot box.

The big problem that a tiny number of radicals had with him you mean. Obama is well to the Left of most Americans. He is running neck and neck with Carter as one of the worst Presidents ever. I don’t think his heart is in it. He has always surfed on affirmative action without being required to produce anything. Now he is in the White House he has not been able to produce anything and all he wants to do is play golf. It is possible he won’t even stand. Or that the Dems will roll him for Hilary.

Personally I like Rick Perry. Soft on immigration but still a good candidate.

@11
This fiat economy is starving people world wide and causing wars so pal ill go right back to my cave.

Jay cee

16 If you think Obama is on the left then you show your total ignorance.

Obama has kept all the executive power steals by the Bush people. He has extended the Bush tax cuts for the richest americans. He u turned on his pledge to bring in a public option for healthcare. Giving the private insurers a bonanza. He appointes ex Goldman people to his financial team. His justice dept has not prosecuted a single bank, and has turned a blind eye to banks fore closing on military serviceman mortgages abroad. Which is illegal. He has continued the war on terror.

I could go on and on. He has been a terrible president, ye, but it is because he has been a republican. The only reason he has any chance of winning is that the republican party are so far to the loony right that they are with the flat earthers. Hence the reason Gingrich is leading the field of crazy people.

19. Leon Wolfson

@1 – You mean the mess the Republicans caused because they wouldn’t pass a sensible system? Yea.

@3 – You’re funny. Cain is guilty as shit, and it’s very probably Newt who dug the stuff up.

It’s amusing watching the right self-destruct for once, rather than the left.

What is the liberal conscesus on giving the federal reserve back to thr american people and taking it of the_ banksters like JFK in 1963. Also the glas stiegall law to boot.

21. Robin Levett

@SMFS #16:

Obama is well to the Left of most Americans.

Give a list of issues on which, in office, he is to the left of Clinton (either one).

22. Leon Wolfson

@20 – You mean giving billions to a few rich people, while the poor lose banking access?

OK Leon lets see your actual evidencethat “Cain is guilty as shit” or indeed your actual evidence of any connection between the smear campaign and Newt that is 1% as overwhelming ad the evidence that Obama was behind it.

After all beinjg an honest supporter of that corrupt, lying, thieving, Nazi supporter Obama you will certainly be able to produce it.

Or if not some other honest supporter of Obama will either produce it or publicly acknowledge that at least dome of Obama’s support comes from people without the slightest trace of personal honesty.

Assuming Obama has an honest supporter.

@22 I thought that was our current system inflationary quantative easing through casino money management.

“if not some other honest supporter of Obama will either produce it or publicly acknowledge that at least dome of Obama’s support comes from people without the slightest trace of personal honesty.

Assuming Obama has an honest supporter.”

Apparently not then.

26. Robin Levett

@Neil Craig #25:

I know this won’t put you back under the bridge, but wotthehell:

OK Leon lets see your actual evidencethat “Cain is guilty as shit” or indeed your actual evidence of any connection between the smear campaign and Newt

Well, since that was Leon’s claim, I don’t feel compelled to defend it.

Your claims, however:

…that is 1% as overwhelming ad the evidence that Obama was behind it.

After all beinjg an honest supporter of that corrupt, lying, thieving, Nazi supporter Obama you will certainly be able to produce it.

appear so far to be remarkably evidence-free.

Some evidence for Obama being behind Cain’s recent difficulties? Perhaps served up with some side-dishes of evidence of Obama being (i) corrupt (ii) lying (although I might think about giving you that, if you agree he ran as a liberal but has served as a Republican) (iii) thieving and particularly (iv) a Nazi supporter.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    Newt Gingrich as Republican nominee? Why it's very likely http://t.co/XJf2H3ZG

  2. Left Foot Forward

    .@MarcusARoberts on why it looks like Newt Gingrich may be the Republican nominee, on @LibCon: http://t.co/8U5j1LcJ #US2012 #BestOfTheWeb

  3. AltGovUK

    .@MarcusARoberts on why it looks like Newt Gingrich may be the Republican nominee, on @LibCon: http://t.co/8U5j1LcJ #US2012 #BestOfTheWeb

  4. Mark Carrigan

    Why it looks like Newt Gingrich may be the Republican nominee | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/TsIrkpOr via @libcon

  5. Marcus A. Roberts

    My thoughts on @libcon on how Newt Gingrich might, possibly, just, perhaps be anti-Romney who wins http://t.co/3aMivuus

  6. sunny hundal

    My thoughts on @libcon on how Newt Gingrich might, possibly, just, perhaps be anti-Romney who wins http://t.co/3aMivuus

  7. Marcus A. Roberts

    @PhilMEdwards here you go then! http://t.co/3aMivuus

  8. Marcus A. Roberts

    @taptheadmiral @anthonypainter @wdjstraw my Gingrich daydream: just another bubble or the anti-Mitt come at last? http://t.co/3aMivuus

  9. Mark Ferguson

    Excellent analysis of Gingrich's return from Marcus here – disappointed he didn't mention the Lithgow video though… http://t.co/jDoQYzE3

  10. Mark Ferguson

    Rick Perry clearly needs to watch the Daily Show episode where Jon Stewart explains that Pilgrims banned christmas… http://t.co/jDoQYzE3





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