Is the crisis in the Eurozone responsible for the UK’s dismal economic growth?

The latest government apologist to repeat this line was Mark Hogan, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, arguing on the Today programme that the situation on the other side of the Channel “does cast a long shadow over our economy”.

This argument doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

One problem for the Government is that our stagnation began before the Eurozone crisis.

Take two sets of data published today. First of all, look at the industrial production data, published by Eurostat:

The chart shows the onset of the Eurozone’s troubles, with production dropping badly in September, but UK production has been stagnant since two months before that.

Production in the Eurozone in September was still higher than at the end of 2010, despite the current difficulties; the UK still lags behind that level.

My second piece of new evidence is the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators, a monthly round-up of data that suggests which way major economies are headed.

Everywhere is slowing down, but if you look at the OECD’s charts for the Eurozone and the UK, you’ll see that our peak can claim to have been earlier, and by several months:

We need to get an important point right in this debate. I deny that the Eurozone’s problems are cause of the UK’s current troubles; but that is not the same as saying that they aren’t going to have an effect.

—
cross-posted from Touchstone blog

Reader comments

1. Janet Edwards

   RT @libcon Two reasons why UK's slow growth isn't the EU's fault http://t.co/UXU9EmHm >> Nosedive can be traced to arrival of Cam + Osborne

2. Janet Graham

   Two reasons why UK's slow growth isn't the EU's fault http://t.co/JSFLYqv5

3. Janet Edwards

   @libcon Two reasons why UK's slow growth isn't the EU's fault http://t.co/UXU9EmHm >> Further evidence; too far too fast.

4. Janet Edwards

   @libcon Two reasons why UK's slow growth isn't the EU's fault http://t.co/UXU9EmHm >Result of Osborne's lies about UK econ; brink bankruptcy

5. Osman Khan

   Two reasons why UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault http://t.co/Thdpujul

6. Richard Exell

   My post: Two reasons why the UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault – http://t.co/E6xKTVts

7. Huw Davies

   Two reasons why UK's slow growth isn't the EU's fault http://t.co/JSFLYqv5

8. Sandwell Green Party

   Two reasons why UK's slow growth isn't the EU's fault http://t.co/JSFLYqv5

9. Alex Braithwaite

   Two reasons why UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/kcwoFeAB via @libcon

10. SERTUC Young Members

    RT @RichardExell: My post: Two reasons why the UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault – http://t.co/Qf73dNnf

11. Tory attempts to blame Europe fact-checked and found wrong | Liberal Conspiracy

    [...] times, and no doubt the Tories will continue trying to push it. Yesterday, Richard Exell showed two sets of data that contradicted the [...]

12. Richard Murphy

    Two reasons why UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/HrcMg3Wo

13. Mario Cavalli

    Two reasons why UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/6Ujzvr0r via @libcon

14. Harem Karem

    Two reasons why UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/HrcMg3Wo

15. Alex Braithwaite

    Two reasons why UK’s slow growth isn’t the EU’s fault | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/HrcMg3Wo

16. Mike Wilson

    http://t.co/hrMGxzD1 convincing evidence that UK economic slowdown is self-inflicted and not due to #eurocrisis

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