I think Miliband is to the, lets see which ever gets him elected, if he thought moving to the right would get him elected he move to the right. But if somebody said look if you move the left He have a bloody heart attack.

Miliband loves the middle of the road, trouble is Cameron owns it.

Miliband loves the middle of the road, trouble is Cameron owns it.

Well,erm, the public don’t exactly see it that way – as the polls above show.

“reading Westminster press commentary, including that of the sycophantically pro-Tory Economist”

insulting better journalism than your own Sunny doesn’t do you much credit.

I forgot to put the link in there for the Economist. I usually like their reporting but the comment pieces on Westminster and absurdly pro-Tory and lame. The Blighty blog, which I link to, is written by the affable but firmly right-wing Janan Ganesh. He used to work at Policy Exchange.

I really wish we’d stop trying to cram the entire political space into a simplistic one dimensional spectrum running from left to right. I believe we at least need to consider the libertarian/authoritarian axis as well.

Under Cameron, the Conservatives have moved to a more liberal social outlook (e.g. repealing ID cards), but are still quite authoritarian (“repeal the Human Rights Act”) and almost as right-wing as ever on economic issues. Blair brought Labour into the same authoritarian/right quadrant as the Conservatives, but they’re both more authoritarian (“license all journalists”) than the Conservatives, and slightly more left economically. The Lib Dems under Clegg have moved towards the right – notably now they’re in coalition – positioning themselves between Labour and the Conservatives, but they maintain their social liberalism.

But that’s only about one-and-a-half of the quadrants that exist in two dimensional political space.

And as for the public, by-and-large, their political views are utterly contradictory – hang ‘em and flog ‘em until it’s them or one of their family that gets caught transgressing, then they suddenly discover the need for more nuanced ideas of punishment and rehabilitation. And so it is with tax and benefits also.

I have always said that Cameron is the GW Bush of British politics. He copied Bush’s tactics almost exactly. Pretending he was a more moderate tory. I think he even used the “compassionate conservative” phrase. He gave the tory party a fake green wash. But if he had won out right he would have moved far to the right. We can see from the tories plans for the NHS, what kind of govt he would have lead.

Cameron’s opinions before he became leader are on the record. He is a hard right wing, toff, who has only time for the rich global elites.

Well the lesson is clear. Not-red Ed should continue to elaborate his strikingly left wing vision, drawing to him, traditional Labour voter, jaded Liberals and despairing Conservative . As a Conservative this prospect fills me with dread, but I can see both the electoral logic and the principled rationale behind it .

Got me there Sunnster … I think you have this one spot on

So we now have a Labour party that sits in the middle of the road we are told neither to the left or to the right, well sadly people who walk down the middle of a road normally get run over,

But to fall back on what the Polls say, the poll which will tell you the out come of the next government will be an election

Try another question: If Melanie Phillips is as irrational as Seamus Milne, is the press out of touch?

If the case was Melanie Phillips and Seamus Milne define liberal converse… well I struggle for words. But comparing Cameron and Miliband is little different. Neither of them has the ability to sell a big idea.

Obviously Cameron is far, far more right-wing than Miliband is left-wing. That’s because in our post-Thatcher society there’s much more acceptance of right-wing ideology. The last Labour leader as left-wing as Cameron is right-wing was probably Michael Foot.

lmfao…if Cameron is right wing then I am giving Sally a blowjob

@11 – TMI

@8 – At this rate I’ll be campaigning and voting for Arnold Judas Rimmer next election…

Sunny

There are a number of factors that might explain the anomalous poll perceptions of Cameron as right-wing.

1. How leaders are perceived is partly a function of whether a party appears united or divided, and where the fault lines are at any time. Because there is currently a vocal Blairite bloc positioned to Miliband’s right, Ed is seen as (relatively) left-wing. If the main division within Labour were between the leadership and some Miltant-type entryist group, then he’d be perceived as right-wing. The Tories are presenting a disciplined, united front so tend to be seen as “all the same”.

2. Left wing people are ideologically blinkered and cannot see the differences of nuance in centre-right parties. Ken Clarke is seen as on the left of the Tories (because of his pro-Europe stance) but when it comes to describing the difference between, say, David Davis and Michael Howard or between Michael Howard and John Redwood, they’d be left floundering.

3. Class background colours perceptions. See the comments above for a knee-jerk “he’s a toff, so must be right wing” reaction. Actually that’s as daft as saying David Davis must be left wing ‘cos he was brought up by a single-mum on a council estate. But still, people say it and think it.

YEAH! SOUND POLITICAL DEBATE! IM LOVIN IT!

Well I am going to join in; I would love to be roughed up by Sally. She would be dressed up like some Red Guard from the Chinese Cultural Revolution and she would be humiliating me for listening to some rock and roll records. Forcing me to renounce my decadent western ways, making me put one hand on my nose and the other on my hip whilst jumping up and down in front of a jeering mob of red guards……but then I would be liberated by some Libertarians who would have their wicked free market ways with me. They would ravish me like they would ravish the state, Oh please take me, PLEASE! I would scream.

There’s a broad consensus amongst the political class of where the “centre ground” is, and its clearly a fair distance to the right of the voting public.

In any event, the trick is to build a coalition of voters large enough to win a majority in the House of Commons. Given that the Tories couldn’t poll more than 37% even in the best possible circumstances, and haven’t won a majority since 1992, Labour can probably win in 2015 by polling around the 40% mark, which allowing for turnout equates to a little more than 1 in 4 voters. They could do that quite easily without reaching so far into the right-wing as they did under Blair and Brown. Left and centre votes should be enough to seal it.

Given that the Tories couldn’t poll more than 37% even in the best possible circumstances, and haven’t won a majority since 1992…

Given that Labour couldn’t poll more than 34% even in the best possible circumstance, and haven’t won a majority since 1979…

Making political predictions is fun, but rarely particularly useful.

I reckon the libdems could turn into a swing ball party being battered right to left at every election.

@ 16:

“There’s a broad consensus amongst the political class of where the “centre ground” is, and its clearly a fair distance to the right of the voting public.”

Maybe on the economy, but not so much on social issues, crime and punishment, the EU, immigration…

@16 I think he is kind of right, but Labour in the 40s aint going to happen.