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Polls show govt is losing economic credibility


10:02 am - August 19th 2011

by Sunny Hundal    


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An increasing number of polls show that the government is losing credibility on the economy as economic stagnation continues and people feel fearful about the future.

A YouGov poll has found that compared with 6 months ago – 35% of people now have less confidence in the government’s strategy on the economy.

Only 5% have more confidence, while 54% said they did not feel any different (negatively or positively) to 6 months ago.

Also on the economy
– Only 33% feel the government is managing the economy well, while 57% feel the government is managing it badly.

– A massive 76% of voters feel the economy is doing badly – only 4% think it is doing well.

– Only 10% think the economic outlook will improve over the next 12 months – which will continue to depress spending.

The poll also found:

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About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Story Filed Under: Economy ,News

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Reader comments


1. Roger Mexico

I’m sorry Sunny, but this is completely meaningless and you ought to know it. People may say they have less confidence than six months ago, but if you actually go back six months, they seem to have exactly the same level of confidence if not a bit more.

If you look at YouGov’s tracker questions such as Thinking about the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the government’s deficit, do you think this is…Good for the economy six months before this poll 33% agreed as against 38% the day after it.

Over similar dates the response to the question Do you think the coalition government is managing the economy well or badly? has gone from ‘Well’ 36% v ‘Badly’ 55% to 35% v 55% six months later. Other economic tracker questions show a similar pattern.

As it happens, the six month question is interesting only because February was when we saw the lowest levels of support for the government so far, and they are heading that way again. But all this shows is that a lot of people have bad memory and always think things are getting worse. We knew that anyway.

What should worry the Left is that more people think that the government should be cutting government spending more (26%) or are getting the balance about right (20%) than think they they should be cutting less (40%). This is a battle that has yet to be fought, never mind won.

Roger – you’re considering different polls there, and comparing them, when the questions are different.

Also – confidence in the economy was higher 6 months ago than now
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2011/07/07/in-a-graph-how-george-osborne-killed-consumer-confidence/

3. Roger Mexico

Sunny

I’m comparing exactly the same questions asked by the same pollster six months apart. That’s the whole point of tracker questions. These tell us what people actually thought at the time compared to now.

The question you quoted was about “confidence in the coalition government’s strategy on the economy?” and I picked two regular questions that matched that as near as possible. They show that there is no real difference between then and now, whatever people claim that they thought.

Confidence in the economy is a different thing entirely and affected by people’s view of what is happening in the rest of the world. It’s not just about what the government’s policy is.

Sorry if I can across as a bit snappy, but there’s a lot of useful information in these polls and it’s a pity to cherry-pick just the stuff that looks like it will give us the warm fuzzies.

One thing is sure, the unfolding international economic situation and what is happening in stock markets world wide has boosted the credibility of Keynesian analysis compared with the alternatives. As John Kay put it in the FT in April last year:

The macroeconomics taught in advanced economics today is largely based on analysis labelled dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. The unappealing title gives the game away: the theorists are mostly talking to themselves. Their theories proved virtually useless in anticipating the crisis, analysing its development and recommending measures to deal with it.

Recent economic policy debates have not only largely ignored DSGE, but have also been remarkably similar to the economic policy debates of the 1930s, although they have been resolved differently. The economists quoted most often are John Maynard Keynes and Hyman Minsky, both of whom are dead.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/U9dkrg3

  2. Just Say Noam

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/U9dkrg3

  3. sunny hundal

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  4. Michael

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  5. Sean Gittins

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  6. K S Dhindsa

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  7. sunny hundal

    Only 10% of people think economic outlook will improve over next 12 mths: which will depress spending http://t.co/tpg1uej

  8. James Morris

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  9. w.m o'mara

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  10. TheCreativeCrip

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/U9dkrg3

  11. Sandra Ayres

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  12. David Wall-Jones

    Only 10% of people think economic outlook will improve over next 12 mths: which will depress spending http://t.co/tpg1uej

  13. Asim Haneef

    Only 10% of people think economic outlook will improve over next 12 mths: which will depress spending http://t.co/tpg1uej

  14. Sandra Ayres

    Only 10% of people think economic outlook will improve over next 12 mths: which will depress spending http://t.co/tpg1uej

  15. Amy Jenkins

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  16. Will Porter

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  17. michael barry

    RT @libcon: Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/AAvY5lZ * just economic credibility ?

  18. Itsmotherswork

    “@libcon: Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/AqGu5Lu
    Quarter of LibDem voters think govt should be cutting more!

  19. Ryan Slaughter

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  20. Pete Lamb

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  21. Owen Blacker

    Latest polls show govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/tpg1uej

  22. Debbie Jolly

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/U9dkrg3

  23. Progressive Polling

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/U9dkrg3

  24. Scott

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/U9dkrg3

  25. Martin Morgan

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility http://t.co/U9dkrg3

  26. Wark&LeamLabourParty

    H/T “@sunny_hundal: govt badly losing economic credibility: 35% have less confidence in their plans than 6mths ago http://t.co/vUajNls”

  27. Noxi

    RT @sunny_hundal: Only 10% of people think economic outlook will improve over next 12 mths: which will depress spending http://t.co/j1BGEpT

  28. bryan

    Polls show govt is losing economic credibility | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/PMs2Zrm via @libcon

  29. A Supercop for the Met, Eddie Izzard for London Mayor, and a looming double dip recession: round up of political blogs for 13-19 August | British Politics and Policy at LSE

    […] course for a wasted decade, while Sunny Hundal at Liberal Conspiracy writes that the government is losing credibility on its economic plans. However, Matthew Barrett at Conservative Home thinks that George Osborne will have a spring in his […]

  30. Devastating poll for Ed Miliband? Don’t believe the Times hype | Liberal Conspiracy

    […] all Labour’s fault” line will run out of steam. The polls already show the government has lost huge amounts of credibility on the economy. I don’t see this turning around anytime soon, if at all over the next four […]

  31. sunny hundal

    @jamiepullman but its not playing well – http://t.co/sxaIn6N9 and http://t.co/bcZaHnKM





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