Time to start worrying? Recession fears go mainstream
Having long warned that the Government’s economic agenda risked harming Britain’s recovery, I finally stuck my neck out in April and wrote that I now thought a double dip recession was more likely than not*.
I wrote that to avoid a recession four (nearly impossible) things have to happen in 2011:
1 – The impact of spending cuts on growth has to be a lot lower than the IMF estimate them to be.
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Ed M drops bomb: ‘call off BSkyB bid’
Ed Miliband today made four demands in a press conference, sharpening his attacks on News International and David Cameron.
Highlights
- Asked Cameron to come clean about whether No. 10 had any “relevant documents” regarding the scandal,
- Called for a judge-led inquiry to be established quickly so that important documents could not be shredded by guilty parties.
- Said press self-regulation had to improve and laid out some important pre-requisites, including prominence of apologies, before such a system would be seen as credible.
But it was in the questions after the press conference he dropped the big bomb:
- He said Rupert Murdoch should call off the BSkyB bid in its entirety, going further than he has before.
- He also called for Rupert Murdoch to apologise to the victims of phone-hacking.
His short speech today said:
Six days since the revelations about the hacking of Milly Dowler’s phone, we have seen dramatic events like the closure of the News of the World and further arrests.
Above all, we know the people in our country want to see real change to ensure these abuses by parts of the press never happen again.
The task of political leaders now is to have a clear focus on what matters, and the decisions required to usher in the change we need.
So what do we need to do?
First, on the judge-led inquiry. We need to make sure that it is set up immediately. Any less means there is a risk that evidence will be destroyed.
As soon as an inquiry is established, tampering or destruction of any documents becomes a criminal offence.
And that includes any relevant documents in No10 Downing Street and Conservative HQ.
The inquiry should be set up under the Inquiries Act so it can compel witnesses to attend.
And the inquiry must have the right terms of reference covering all the key issues including the culture and practices of the newspaper industry and the relationship between the police and certain newspapers.
Neither of these appears to be in the Prime Minister’s current terms of reference. And I’m determined to put that right.
If the investigation does not get to these issues, like the alleged paying of police officers for information or the culture of the industry, we cannot be sure we get the change we need.
Put simply, the Government is dragging its feet and is still showing it does not understand the gravity of this scandal and the scale of public concern.
David Cameron needs to get a move on.
Second, on BSkyB. Last Wednesday the Prime Minister at Prime Minister’s Questions told me a referral to the Competition Commission was not the right way forward.
On Friday, he continued to express belief in that process.
Yesterday I made clear that we would force a vote in the House of Commons this Wednesday because I did not believe that the Culture Secretary could proceed with the current process which relies on assurances from News Corporation.
I do not believe he should be relying on assurances from News Corporation given recent developments.
The head of the PCC says she was lied to by News International.
James Murdoch has admitted serious wrongdoing at News International.
And there are now allegations that News International knew that phone hacking was widespread as long ago as 2007.
The Government, having repeatedly said there was no alternative to their flawed process, now appears to be moving towards my position.
They are doing it not because they want to, but because they have been forced to.
Let me be clear: this chaos and confusion in government is all of their own making.
They should never have embarked on this sort of process.
It is important to remember the original recommendation from Ofcom was for a referral to the Competition Commission. We supported that
But Mr Hunt ignored that advice.
Whatever the twists and turns of the government, I will accept nothing less than some straight talking that this bid will not proceed until after the criminal investigation is complete.
Third, I do believe that we can move forward with reform of the system of self-regulation.
It is important at a time like this that we do not rush to statutory regulation of the press.
That is why I said on Friday that my instincts remain to continue with self-regulation.
But it must be on a different basis from the past in three particular respects:
Greater independence of the Board from current editors.
Clear investigatory powers to ensure effective scrutiny.
And the ability to enforce corrections of suitable prominence.
It is in the interests of the vast majority of decent people in the newspaper industry that editors and proprietors take the initiative to lead this response.
Fourth, it is imperative that David Cameron now comes clean on the increasing number of questions surrounding his appointment of Andy Coulson.
On Friday at his press conference, David Cameron said and I quote “no one gave me any specific information” which might have dissuaded him from appointing Andy Coulson.
Yet the Guardian newspaper says it had discussions with Steve Hilton, his senior aide, detailing the facts about Andy Coulson’s decision to rehire Jonathan Rees, a convicted criminal.
According to The Guardian, these included the fact that Rees had been jailed for seven years for a criminal conspiracy, after which he had been rehired by Coulson’s News of the World.
And the fact that Rees’s illegal activities on behalf of the News of the World included making payments to police.
This information was passed by Steve Hilton to the Prime Minister’s chief of staff Ed Llewellyn.
You cannot get more specific information than this.
The Prime Minister must now explain.
Did Ed Llewellyn tell him about this evidence and did he ignore it?
Or did Mr Llewellyn fail to tell him about this?
Either people have been misled about what Mr Cameron knew or Mr Llewellyn has completely failed in his duties.
Mr Cameron must now answer these and other questions including the warnings he apparently received from Paddy Ashdown and Nick Clegg.
Unless he can explain what happened with Mr Coulson and apologise for his terrible error in appointing him, his reputation and that of his government will be permanently tarnished.
I say this finally: The Prime Minister made an important statement at a press conference on Friday.
It is duty to also come to the House of Commons and explain himself.
People expect him to start showing the leadership on this issue that has been so completely lacking so far.
BIG: UK economy ‘could be shrinking’ (updated)
Post updated in its entirety
Over the weekend, while the NotW scandal was in full swing, important news went under the radar.
The Sunday Times reported:
Britain’s economy has shrunk over the past three months, according to City experts, piling more pressure on ministers as they drive through the coalition’s programme of cuts.
Economists believe that official GDP figures later this month will reveal that the economy contracted by 0.2% between April and June, after recording growth of 0.5% in the first quarter of the year.
Official measures of GDP published by the Office for National Statistics have consistently proved even gloomier than City predictions in recent quarters.
The experts’ forecasts will revive fears that Britain will re-enter recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
George Osborne, the chancellor, may try to blame the Japanese earthquake, a late Easter and the royal wedding break. Critics will say the chancellor also blamed temporary factors for weak growth in the final quarter of last year, when unseasonal snowfall was cited.
Yes – Osborne will try and blame temporary factors again but this excuse cannot be rolled out on a constant basis.
A similar report is also in the Sun today .
So what happened to Osborne’s growth plan huh?
The Guardian reports today that prospects for Britain’s economy remain bleak as “consumers continue to cut back on their spending and export sales fail to take up the slack”.
Keep in mind that right-wingers were touting exports as our way out of the slump only a few months back. The idea this was going to happen was always a fantasy but it nevertheless became a serious talking-point on the right.
The Guardian also says a report from accountants BDO shows business confidence in the manufacturing sector has dropped to a two-year low.
On top of declining demand at home, as the coalition’s tax rises and spending cuts take hold, firms are facing a slowdown in exports, especially to the eurozone, as it struggles with its sovereign debt crisis.
Osorne’s plan to cut spending and make consumers even more fearful of future prospects really worked didn’t it?
I wonder how long it will take tories to admit we should have taken measures to hold domestic demand and confidence.
BSkyB and local programming: should Labour focus on this?
As far as I can see, the current scandals engulfing News Corporation – did they cause unnecessary hurt to individuals and get in the way of a murder enquiry – fade into insignificance against the big question:
Do they use the bullying power of their newspapers to distort democracy in pursuit of their own corporate interests?
A glaring example is the way that Murdoch is allowed to duck a European regulation that would create thousands of jobs and result in a small portion of the tax-free profits that he exports being spent on making TV programmes and films in the UK.
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Ed Miliband: the comeback kid
contribution by Jon Stone
Though not quite a return to the pre-Blair Labour manifesto calling for a breakup of newspaper monopolies, Labour’s vote in parliament to delay any takeover of BSkyB is definitely welcome.
it is not something I could imagine the Labour Party of three years ago doing.
For a political machine that still goes out of its way to shape its policies to appease The Sun, doing something that will undeniably piss off the Great Satan himself is babysteps to a more assertive relationship with the right-wing gutter press.
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Has Labour wrecked Murdoch’s BSkyB bid?
Last night at 10pm I got the text. Labour would use Wednesday’s Opposition debate to try and halt News International’s takeover of BSkyB until the criminal investigation is over.
Potentially, that could be years, and then derail the whole thing if senior NI execs are found guilty.
It was also the first time the Labour party explicitly linked the issue of media plurality with the phone-hacking scandal.
A Labour source said:
We are incredulous that David Cameron he can press on with this takeover or have an NHS style delay. He shows no understanding of the breadth of this crisis or depth of public anger.
Wow. No one can accuse Ed Miliband of not having the guts now – he’s taking the fight straight to the country’s most powerful media mogul.
So what is possible at this stage? The Libdems are now virtually certain to back Labour’s vote – Simon Hughes pretty much said so today on Sky News.
Will Cameron then delay the bid? He doesn’t have to but will be under immense political pressure to do so.
Or it could be Ofcom that comes to his rescue, so the bid is delayed and he doesn’t have to directly piss off Rupert Murdoch.
As @NeilrFoster says on Twitter:
According to YouGov only 1 in 10 believe Murdoch/NewsCorp is ‘fit and proper’ to run BSkyB. Hearing that OFCOM?
The ball is in Cameron’s and Ofcom’s court.
Help us defend your right to breathe
contribtion by Andrew Tobert
London is addicted to the car. Take a walk through its centre and you’ll find two, three and four-lane motorways ripping into what should be vibrant urban communities. Parents no longer feel their children can walk to school, where they once played in the street, they’re now kept indoors.
The car has stolen my city, and now I want it back.
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Double standards in the phone-hacking scandal
Let us note that the images featured on the front pages of many newspapers last week were those of the most iconic cases of recent years. Sarah Payne, hollyandjessica, Millie Dowler, Madeline McCann: the news-stands appeared to be some macabre Abduction Hall of Fame.
This is actually a dream come true for rivals of News of the World.
It is the invasion of privacy of these families that the rival newspapers are keen to report, because they too know that it is images of these children that sell.
Can citizens replace the need for tighter press regulation?
contribution by Reuben Bard-Rosenberg
It has once again become fashionable to assert that “self-regulation doesn’t work”, and that the Press Complaints Commission ought to be replaced with some kind of statutory check on the media.
Writing for the Guardian, Geoffrey Robertson QC suggests that we follow other nations in having “statutory “press ombudspersons” who adjudicate public complaints, direct retractions and compensation, enforce rights of reply and monitor ethical standards.”
Is this a step backwards?
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Leaked audio! Rebekah Brooks faces angry NotW staff (extended)
Post updated
Courtesy of someone at Sky News, I’ve now managed to get an extended version of the audio of Rebekah Brooks facing angry News of the World staff.
Highlights
- Staff accuse Rebekah Brooks “of calling our newspaper toxic”
- She is also accused of “making the whole News International toxic”
- Whatever she says ends up at the Guardian website, she claims
- “No one wanted to be in it” – she admits with regards to advertisers.
- She admits lots of advertisers were pulling out
- She says there is more to come and it will then be “another very difficult moment for this company”.
- Staff member says: “a lot of people think you should resign”.
Listen to part 1
LC EXCL: Rebekah Brooks faces angry NotW staff pt1 (mp3)
Listen to part 2
LC EXCL: Rebekah Brooks faces angry NotW staff pt.2 (mp3)
Listen to part 3
LC Excl: Rebekah Brooks faces angry NotW staff pt.3 (mp3)
Partial transcript (courtesy of yerialc)
Rebekah Brooks: …and I remember the team spirit of the paper where you all, who were there came alongside me and we fought for something we believed in, and I remember when we saw all the news headlines that came in the next day – we were rubbished everywhere and there was an opinion poll that said “ninety-seven percent of the British public agree with you”.
And we were like “right, here we are, we’re up and running”. And so I feel very strongly exactly the same as you, and that’s why I said “mounting anger”. And you know, I’m not saying- you know, this is not exactly the best time in my life, but I’m determined to get vindication for this paper. And for people like you.
Staff member: Will the paper come out again once you’ve got vindication for it? What I don’t understand is, can’t you see that by your actions yesterday, you’re calling our newspaper toxic, right? We’re all contaminated by that toxicity, by the way we’ve been treated. But can’t you see the bigger picture? You’re making the whole of News International toxic, and the arrogance there that you think we’re going to work here again.
[applause]
Rebekah Brooks: You know what there’s not an arrogance about wanting you to work for us again at all and I’m sorry that came across. All I meant was that if any of you did want to, that I was going to try and find opportunities, but please believe me, there’s no arrogance coming from this standpoint. On your point about- you know, you said will the paper come out again? We have a belief in journalism, we have invested in journalism throughout our history, yes we’re in a very bad moment, but we will continue to invest in journalism. And we haven’t made a decision on any new publications, or existi- strengthening or expanding existing ones yet.
It’s too soon, we just don’t know what to do. But in those circumstances – I don’t see there’s any of you in this room here looking at me now – that we wouldn’t want to work because we know there’s no toxicity attached to you guys in the room and that’s the sadness. It wouldn’t be sad, we wouldn’t all be feeling like this if you guys were up to your neck in it like previous colleagues. We wouldn’t be feeling like this would we?
Staff clap in response.
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