Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse
I might be premature (always the risk when commenting on markets) but – it looks to me like the Eurozone Bank Stress tests have utterly failed.
They are only two reasons for doing these tests – either the aim is to genuinely test if the banks are healthy enough to take possible losses and identify which banks require more capital OR the aim is simply to reassure the markets that the banks are fine.
The second type of tests can work – the US stress tests of 2009 served this purpose, even though the ‘worst case’ they tested tended to be better than the actual out turn in economic data.
It looks like this is what the Europeans were trying to achieve with these latest tests – not testing for even a Greek default (let alone Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy) is simply incredible.
The market reaction today suggests that the markets have not been reassured.
I’ve long favoured proper stress tests and re-capitalisation of the at-risk-banks before a managed default of debt by heavily indebted governments.
That now seems unlikely – the Eurozone authorities are divided and seem unable to agree to anything until the very point of crisis.
Kicking the can down the road is fine for a while, especially if the time bought is used to re-capitalise banks and prepare for the inevitable.
However the time bought is not being well spent and the authorities are rapidly running out of road to kick the can down.
---------------------------
| Tweet |
Duncan is a regular contributor. He has worked as an economist at the Bank of England, in fund management and at the Labour Party. He is a Senior Policy Officer at the TUC’s Economic and Social Affairs Department.
· Other posts by Duncan Weldon
Story Filed Under: Blog ,Economy ,Europe ,Foreign affairs
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
Reader comments
“… if the time bought is used to re-capitalise banks”
With what?
yes, tricky to ask people to invest money in bank equity, only to have it wiped out when assets are written off. Am I right in thinking the only way to do it is have the banks go bust first (so existing equity gets wiped out) and then recapitalize (so that’s what all those corporations can do with their swollen cash holdings).
Or is there some way for banks who would be bankrupted by bond defaults/haircuts to raise money in anticipation of that?
1 + 2,
A fair question – private sector seems unlikely – French/German/other European govts, SWFs, a new European body, even IMF/ECB. Someone!
“Or is there some way for banks who would be bankrupted by bond defaults/haircuts to raise money in anticipation of that?”
Sure, easy peasy.
Cut interest rates so that the banks can borrow cheaply while allowing them to push to the price at which they lend. This fattens profit margins and allows them to build up reserves of capital against the future losses.
If only someone had done this….oh, wait….
Hardly premature Duncan when most people were saying even before the stress tests were conducted that they were not rigorous enough. The market is pricing in 50% haircuts on Greek bonds and the stress test had 15%. FFS more banks passed this one than the last one which was a joke and had all the Irish banks passing. It has gone beyond wondering what they are up to and what is the endgame. The blatantly obvious conclusion is they are just incompetent.
The stress tests were defined some time ago, complaining after the fact is just silly.
There’s been panic over panic loaded on by people who should have known better, and they have a not-inconsiderable amount of the blame for where we are.
If the Euro collapses, it WILL take the free trade zone with it, you realise? This always seems to be missed amid the gloating of the EU-haters, who want “only a free trade zone”
Hi,
I am Myrina Stein a financial writer. I write on several finance related topics like debt, credit, loans, insurance, investment, real estate, bankruptcy and so on. I came across your site liberalconspiracy.org while surfing through the internet to find a suitable blog for writing articles. It is highly resourceful with rich and nice contents and has a vivid presentation. I must appreciate your hard work and wish you good luck.
I was wondering if you can allow me to write for your blog. I assure you to provide you an absolutely unique but relevant article so that it proves to be useful to your readers. I wish you consider this proposal and will wait for a reply from you.
Please feel free to get in touch with me regarding this any time if you are interested. Reach me at, myrina[dot]stein[dot]888(at)gmail[dot]com
Looking forward for a positive reply.
God Bless,
Myrina Stein
@ Leon,
No I didn’t realise that a Euro collapse would mean the end of the EU or the end of a free trade zone. Do you have an argument to support this theory?
If the Euro collapses, it WILL take the free trade zone with it, you realise?
There’s no particular reason why it should. It’s certainly not an automatic result.
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
- Liberal Conspiracy
Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse http://bit.ly/qwAzli
- Richard Murphy
Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this
- Tim Nelligan
Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this
- TalentCoop
Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this
- cllrdarrenfower
"Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse" – http://tinyurl.com/5rehwrf
- Altany
"Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse" – http://tinyurl.com/5rehwrf
- Frances Coppola
MT @richardjmurphy: Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ow.ly/5GXKd Agree wholeheartedly
- Simon Blanchard
Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You can read articles through the front page, via Twitter or RSS feed. You can also get them by email and through our Facebook group.
» Do older people really need more NHS healthcare?
» There are alternatives to the reckless ‘Plan A’
» On Beecroft: it is already quite easy to sack people
» Why Cameron’s claim of 600,000 jobs created is plainly wrong
» By using age to allocate NHS funding, Lansley rewards Tory voters
» The rise in domestic violence deaths is not an “isolated” problem
» Adrian Beecroft highlights mindset of Tory right
» The US is now a model for the Eurozone to save itself
» The IMF plan to revive the economy doesn’t go far enough
» The Boris brand is weaker than his friends think
» Nine things you can do to halt Lansley’s destruction of our NHS
|
48 Comments 93 Comments 23 Comments 51 Comments 10 Comments 26 Comments 23 Comments 69 Comments 44 Comments 25 Comments |
LATEST COMMENTS » Shinsei1967 posted on Criticism of Obama for its own sake: a reply to Mehdi Hasan » Chaise Guevara posted on Adrian Beecroft highlights mindset of Tory right » Mary Tracy posted on How Newsnight demonised a single mother » Chaise Guevara posted on Red Tory Blond: gay marriage "homophobic" » Chaise Guevara posted on Do older people really need more NHS healthcare? » Chaise Guevara posted on Do older people really need more NHS healthcare? » Chaise Guevara posted on '43% of young women sexually harassed' » Chaise Guevara posted on '43% of young women sexually harassed' » Trooper Thompson posted on Criticism of Obama for its own sake: a reply to Mehdi Hasan » Robin Hood: backed by the rich, backed by the rest, says new poll | ToUChstone blog: A public policy blog from the TUC posted on Poll: banks not paying fair share for crisis » Colin Hall posted on Adrian Beecroft highlights mindset of Tory right » re posted on '43% of young women sexually harassed' » steveb posted on Do older people really need more NHS healthcare? » So Much For Subtlety posted on '43% of young women sexually harassed' » Paul posted on Criticism of Obama for its own sake: a reply to Mehdi Hasan |










