Published: July 18th 2011 - at 11:27 am

Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse


by Duncan Weldon    

I might be premature (always the risk when commenting on markets) but – it looks to me like the Eurozone Bank Stress tests have utterly failed.

They are only two reasons for doing these tests – either the aim is to genuinely test if the banks are healthy enough to take possible losses and identify which banks require more capital OR the aim is simply to reassure the markets that the banks are fine.

The second type of tests can work – the US stress tests of 2009 served this purpose, even though the ‘worst case’ they tested tended to be better than the actual out turn in economic data.

It looks like this is what the Europeans were trying to achieve with these latest tests – not testing for even a Greek default (let alone Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy) is simply incredible.

The market reaction today suggests that the markets have not been reassured.

I’ve long favoured proper stress tests and re-capitalisation of the at-risk-banks before a managed default of debt by heavily indebted governments.

That now seems unlikely – the Eurozone authorities are divided and seem unable to agree to anything until the very point of crisis.

Kicking the can down the road is fine for a while, especially if the time bought is used to re-capitalise banks and prepare for the inevitable.

However the time bought is not being well spent and the authorities are rapidly running out of road to kick the can down.

This won’t end well.


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About the author
Duncan is a regular contributor. He has worked as an economist at the Bank of England, in fund management and at the Labour Party. He is a Senior Policy Officer at the TUC’s Economic and Social Affairs Department.
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Story Filed Under: Blog ,Economy ,Europe ,Foreign affairs


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Reader comments


1. Charles Wheeler

“… if the time bought is used to re-capitalise banks”

With what?

2. Luis Enrique

yes, tricky to ask people to invest money in bank equity, only to have it wiped out when assets are written off. Am I right in thinking the only way to do it is have the banks go bust first (so existing equity gets wiped out) and then recapitalize (so that’s what all those corporations can do with their swollen cash holdings).

Or is there some way for banks who would be bankrupted by bond defaults/haircuts to raise money in anticipation of that?

3. Duncan Weldon

1 + 2,

A fair question – private sector seems unlikely – French/German/other European govts, SWFs, a new European body, even IMF/ECB. Someone!

“Or is there some way for banks who would be bankrupted by bond defaults/haircuts to raise money in anticipation of that?”

Sure, easy peasy.

Cut interest rates so that the banks can borrow cheaply while allowing them to push to the price at which they lend. This fattens profit margins and allows them to build up reserves of capital against the future losses.

If only someone had done this….oh, wait….

Hardly premature Duncan when most people were saying even before the stress tests were conducted that they were not rigorous enough. The market is pricing in 50% haircuts on Greek bonds and the stress test had 15%. FFS more banks passed this one than the last one which was a joke and had all the Irish banks passing. It has gone beyond wondering what they are up to and what is the endgame. The blatantly obvious conclusion is they are just incompetent.

6. Leon Wolfson

The stress tests were defined some time ago, complaining after the fact is just silly.
There’s been panic over panic loaded on by people who should have known better, and they have a not-inconsiderable amount of the blame for where we are.

If the Euro collapses, it WILL take the free trade zone with it, you realise? This always seems to be missed amid the gloating of the EU-haters, who want “only a free trade zone”

7. Myrina Stein

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@ Leon,

No I didn’t realise that a Euro collapse would mean the end of the EU or the end of a free trade zone. Do you have an argument to support this theory?

If the Euro collapses, it WILL take the free trade zone with it, you realise?

There’s no particular reason why it should. It’s certainly not an automatic result.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse http://bit.ly/qwAzli

  2. Richard Murphy

    Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this

  3. Tim Nelligan

    Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this

  4. TalentCoop

    Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this

  5. cllrdarrenfower

    "Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse" – http://tinyurl.com/5rehwrf

  6. Altany

    "Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse" – http://tinyurl.com/5rehwrf

  7. Frances Coppola

    MT @richardjmurphy: Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ow.ly/5GXKd Agree wholeheartedly

  8. Simon Blanchard

    Time to really start worrying – the Euro crisis is getting worse |Duncan Weldon http://ht.ly/5GS0B Agreed wholeheartedly with Duncan on this





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