We wouldn’t even have a Labour party if we followed this Blairite formula. Labour didn’t become a national party by quietly trying to prove it was “credible” and a “trustworthy economic manager” – it became a national force by campaigning on a broad range for social change. Miliband may well follow the “sit quietly and look sensible” model, and Labour will slowly wear away all the social presence it built up since 1902. Or he could lead some kind of positive political movement, standing up for social spending, the NHS, building houses, trying to regulate the worst excesses of capitalism etc.

“And yet, the Labour Opposition still managed to lose the 1992 General Election with the voters clearly unwilling to trust Kinnock and his Shadow Cabinet with government”

It reduced the majority from 3 figures to 21, so it was a reasonable set of gains. Similarly in 1982 labour were ahead prior to the falklands.

The thrust of the article is correct though; oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. But if that is the case, why not do the right thing anyway?

How long will we have to wait for this bad thing?

Similarly in 1982 labour were ahead prior to the falklands.

We went through this yesterday. Labour lost their lead in March ’82, the month before the Falklands, and had peaked in October 81, as the economy started to turn around. Further, if you look at the respective leadership ratings of Thatcher and Foot, the idea that Labour could have won an election even without the Falklands is questionable.

What really screwed Labour, of course, was the split-off of the SDP.

“The opposition party has no control over when and how this bad thing will happen.”

Depends how much the media likes the opposition, really. One “bad thing”, in terms of PR, was Gordon Brown calling Gillian Duffy a bigot. Don’t tell me that Sky would have reported that if they’d preferred a Labour victory to a Tory one. And then there was that paper – was it the Telegraph? – that sent out a load of undercover reporters with the intention of embarrassing or compromising MPs, but only targeted Lib Dems.

Labour failed to win in 1992 because of some last minute tactical mistakes. Some of the people who made those mistakes went on to be leading lights in post-1997 Labour. Coincidence?

Labour failed to win in 1992 because of some last minute tactical mistakes.

Again, I think this is a bit of a false memory. Labour got thumped in 1992, and it was only the vagaries of the electoral system that made it so close. Major got 42% of the vote, Kinnock 34%. That is an absolute kicking, and not one to be explained away by the Sheffield Rally.

Comment no 2:

“It reduced the majority from 3 figures to 21, so it was a reasonable set of gains”

I think I read in one of the General Election series of books that the Conservative majority was so small because there was a shortage of Conservative activists caused by the loss of many small businesses in the recession.

This does sound plausible. 21 is a tiny majority for such a large lead of 7.5%.
One very significant statistic is that Labour’s share of the vote was still lower than in 1979.

wherent Labour in 3rd place in the opinion polls during 1981, with the Lib/SDP at one point commanding 50% of the ‘vote’…as for 1992, the sheffield rally didn’t help, but neither did the media really help either, cause weren’t it the sun wot won it for the Tories?

@3

I suspect it’s one of Rumsfeld’s “unknown knowns”…or whatever way round is was. Not sure what the OP is trying to say here other than the truism that government’s lose elections & Labour needs to be in a position where it can jump on anti-gov feeling.
But I mostly agree with @1 – Labour at its best sets the agenda, it doesn’t follow it. The best things about ’97 – ’10 were the minimum wage, Sure Start, making the NHS world class, stuff that if it was simply following the mainstream “narrative” (ugh) it wouldn’t have done. Labour & Ed Miliband need to be bold and do more bold moves with proper policy announcements.

But don’t we have a succession of Bad Things at the moment? If not now, when…?