The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (updated)


by Sunny Hundal    
June 5, 2011 at 8:33 pm

This article was first published at Guardian.co.uk. It’s been slightly updated here.

There is a view taken by some commentators that because the Tories are seen as credible on the economy – Labour has no choice but to accept defeat on the issue of cuts to public services.

It’s convenient for some, because they don’t care much about the impact of the cuts, but it’s not one backed up by public opinion. It’s a view shared across the political and media classes and is repeated ad nauseum without evidence.

But how credible is it?

First, a quick quiz: has the government saved the economy by taking difficult decisions to cut spending drastically, or are they cutting by almost the same as Labour would have anyway? You’d be forgiven for being confused because the Conservative-led coalition is not sure either.

The government’s “new cuts narrative” has been outlined in the past by Fraser Nelson, attempted by George Osborne, and articulated last week by Tim Montgomerie as: “Cameron state is 3% larger than the Brown state.”

So did they save the economy or are they matching Labour?

The real question is why they’re retreating from the fighting talk of severe cuts. They’re doing this because they know their own popularity is under threat, and that the cuts aren’t working.

The evidence

1. The partisan effect
Fifty-nine per cent of voters who turned out opted for one of the parties in government. This is usually missed out in debates but it matters because partisan supporters will give their party the benefit of the doubt, especially since both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are singing from the same hymn sheet on the economy. (We will have to ignore the fact that Lib Dem pre-election plans for deficit reduction were closer to Labour’s plans: most Lib Dem voters won’t remember and Lib Dem activists don’t care.)

2. Falling confidence in their ability to run the economy
YouGov has asked the same question over the last year to a representative sample of people:

See the change? You can’t much more stark than that. Still think their credibility is intact?

3. Losing other arguments

How about the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the deficit: good or bad for the economy? In June 2010 49% of people thought their approach was good, with 31% thinking it was bad (21% don’t knows). A year later just 38% think their approach is good, while 47% think it is bad for the economy (15% don’t knows).

Other tracking polls on economic issues by YouGov have also moved against the coalition. Thirty-three per cent thought the cuts were done “unfairly” in June last year; now that figure is at 58%. Of course, those numbers will only fall so far thanks to the partisan effect. But the direction of those key questions will have worried government strategists.

4. Falling confidence

Britons have very low expectations the government can turn things around. An Ipsos-Mori poll published this week said only one in 10 Britons expect the economy to be stronger in the next six months. The Germans were at 67%, Australians at 70% and Swedes at 78%.

These numbers aren’t just a thumbs-down to confidence in Osborne’s abilities to turn things around, they can also predict the future.

A tracker poll by YouGov asks: “How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months?” It was slightly negative during 2007 when the crash began; turned deeply negative during “credit crunch” 2008; recovered in 2009 as Labour stabilised the economy with measures such as “cash for bangers” and cut VAT; it dived again in June 2010 once the government announced the cuts. The economy, rather unsurprisingly, has been on the same trajectory.

So why is Labour not doing better?
Labour ratings on the economy are depressed for similar reasons. A significant proportion of voters dislike Labour policies, but from the left: accusing them of being too soft on the banks who wrecked the economy, rather than demanding spending cuts. [see our polling here].

They also suffer from the partisan effect.

And lastly, the Tories and Libdems have the advantage of being in power and the media interest that goes with it. No one is listening to Labour and not many know their policies or have seen much of the two Eds. The first few years of a new government are always a referendum on that administration because people want to give them a chance. People won’t pay attention to Labour policies on the economy until a year before the election (as it happened with the Tories in 2009).

Countering the u-turn
The government has looked at the same figures and realised that their economic credibility is sinking fast. Moreover, if recovery remains sluggish, as their own projections say it will, then voters will punish them at the next election.

The U-turn – from highlighting how deep it would cut spending, to how little difference there is between it and Labour – is based on worries that the public is reacting negatively to its scaremongering. That effects public spending and therefore the economy. It’s only realised this a year late. It is a clever trick, but a trick nevertheless.

The claim that the government is seen as credible on the economy is simply a media-created myth. It’s about time we questioned it.


---------------------------
     


About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments


1. Daz Pearce

The major issue was Labour’s inability or refusal to identify where the savings would come from. It is true that the government never got a mandate for some of the cuts but then the opposition are completely stumped on the question of where their axe would fall. This is essentially why nobody believes Labour on the economy, with many seeing what is happening as the lesser of two evils.

http://outspokenrabbit.blogspot.com/

2. Maltese Cross

Meanwhile all over Europe (Ireland, Spain and now Portugal) voters are massively rejecting left-wing incumbents who only offer cloud-cuckoo economics in favour of austere and business-like administrations. US doesn’t offer the left any greater hope. The recent spike in unemployment in the US suggests that stimulus economics serves no purpose other than to delay and deepen the day of reckoning.

Recap: George Osborne plan isn’t working, say top UK economists
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jun/04/george-osborne-plan-not-working

Check out the Office of National Statistics charts showing where the extra spending is coming from to make up for the cuts in public spending – and those cuts have barely started as yet – this one shows Consumer Spending:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=11

This ONS chart plots what has been happening to Business Investment since 2001:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=258

And this charts Britain’s Current Balance of (international) Payments since 2005:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=194

Yes theyre handling the economy terribly; theyre doing the exact same thing Labour did and would continue to do had they won the election; borrowing more, increasing govt expenditure as %GDP and raising taxes. Not good.

5. Dick the Prick

Apols for lack of reference but there are pressures for the US to engage in more QE. I think at this point we’re all just dealing with time lags and whimsical speculation.

6. Luis Enrique

those wanting to bash the Tories for poor economic management should be on the look out for this potential major policy mistake – although I think it would be the BoE to blame, rather than the govt, if monetary tightening happens.

The claim that the government is seen as credible on the economy is simply a media-created myth. It’s about time we questioned it.

Credibility on the economy isn’t a standalone concept, it’s a comparative one. Not ‘are these blokes competent?’, but ‘are they more competent than the other lot?’ And it is here where the ‘myth’ of Tory economic credibility comes from.

Although Labour is ahead of the Tories in most opinion polls, it has not yet regained its economic credentials. Only 18 per cent of people trust Mr Miliband to sort out the country’s economic problems and only 14 per cent Mr Balls. They trail Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, who scores 24 per cent.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/public-dont-yet-trust-balls-and-miliband-on-the-economy-2195528.html

So long as opposition economic credibility depends on Miliband and Balls, so long will the Tories seem credible in comparison.

8. Workman Fred

At work, going to be a quick off topic type rant.

How can anyone get the economy right when this is happening SO much?
One of the lads want’s to get out of his workplace, spoke to a friend (over the weekend) of his who has work but is only taking on these lads from the ukraine at £7.50 an hour in their hand, he laid them off at the recent bank holidays so he didn’t have to pay them for it and of course no sick pay, took them back after!
He has said to my mate the best he can do to help him out is pay him £8.50 in the hand but only has work for the weekends.

It really is time the government clamped down HARD on these sorts of employers because I see it happening so much, in fact seems to be the way it is lately, and nothing seems to be done to stop it.
Those B*&*”*d employers need their bum kicked big time, but when is it going to happen? When will it stop?
People like me are doing the right thing but what’s the point, makes me so mad.

Rant over…….For now!

9. Chaise Guevara

@ 8 Workman Fred

“It really is time the government clamped down HARD on these sorts of employers because I see it happening so much, in fact seems to be the way it is lately, and nothing seems to be done to stop it.”

Um, weren’t you the guy going on about how government intervention is terrible a few days ago?

10. Workman Fred

@9

“Um, weren’t you the guy going on about how government intervention is terrible a few days ago?”

I remember saying I look after my own, that being British working class!

Things are getting to me now though, with not only what I put above, last week the old boy who works here said he is helping his son set up a business and guess what? He said “no way are WE employing English workers, they want too much, all round”! This from a man I thought of as my own, well I had some serrious words and we have fell out with each other, not my loss! I wish him bad luck!

The other thing about the above is that the man who is getting the work at the city has some scam with an agency that seems to employ only bods from over seas!!
Where I’ve been brought up you don’t grass on your own but those who aren’t acting like our own are going to pay!

One last thing!
Things are going to pick up in the building trade soon ish, one friends company I know have ordered 8 dozzers and another friends company is ordering new plant, somethings going on but will us Brits get the work that’s on it’s way? Looks like NO!

How awful New Labour was at regulating financial markets and institutions is one issue – I happen to believe it was pretty bad. Whether the New Labour government was overspending is yet another – arguably, it wasn’t, on the evidence, prior to the financial crisis in 2008. Whether the New Labour government was spending unwisely is yet another issue. All those wars?

But that is not the issue here and now – which is whether the timing and scale of public spending cuts in Osbornomics is unnecessarily depressing the economy. And btw the public spending cuts have barely started as yet.

12. Chaise Guevara

@ 10 Workman Fred

I sympathise with you regarding the problems with your local job market at the moment. One of the reasons that I’m hesitant to accuse anti-immigration people of racism is that it’s totally understandable that people resent being marginalised when trying to find jobs. However, it seems a bit shifty that you were previously acting as if state intervention was a terrible thing (I think the topic was healthcare, but I’m not sure), but suddenly you’re all in favour of it when it suits your purposes.

13. Workman fred

@12

When I get home and I’ll look into that and explain myself.
Can’t talk anymore today things are getting busy.

14. Chaise Guevara

@ 13 Fair dos.

@ Workman Fred,

Why is it wrong for employers to employ people who are prepared to do the same work for less? How can British companies be competitive if they overpay for labour?

Why should the British consumer have to pay higher prices for goods as a consequence of higher wages?

@ Maltese Cross:

just to quibble: Ireland has not seen voters reject a ‘left-wing’ government. Fianna Fail, formerly the largest Irish party for more or less the whole history of the State, is a centre-right party. They were replaced earlier this year by a Coalition of the likewise centre-right Fine Gael and the centre-left Labour Party, who are respectively the largest and the second largest parties. And, as I’m sure you’re aware, at the last UK general election, centre-left parties received a majority of the popular vote. These things have much more to do with incumbency and punishing the governing party than they do with ideology.

And, of course, we mustn’t overlook the crucial contribution of the banks to creating the financial crises in Britain and Ireland.

18. Workman fred

@15

Using my break time to answer this, sorry if hurried.

“Why is it wrong for employers to employ people who are prepared to do the same work for less? How can British companies be competitive if they overpay for labour?”

You did see where I said cash in their hand?!

Anywho!
Why is it ok for the British workforce to lose their jobs or not get one in the first place because they can’t compete? Think of their families trying to survive with the wage they have let alone it being reduced!
Why is it ok for the British workforce to end up with even lower stanards of living than we have now so companies can make more on top of selling the products to us!?
If things were truley competitive the rest of the EU would have the same work standards as us!

What are the unions doing to help us Brits, NOTHING, NOTHING AT ALL, look around, they’re good for nothing as well!

Seems the only people looking out for the British working class is ourselves!

Right back to work!

@18

“Why is it ok for the British workforce to lose their jobs or not get one in the first place because they can’t compete?”

Because they can’t compete – that’s why it is fair! Competition creates efficiency.

“If things were truley competitive the rest of the EU would have the same work standards as us!”

What do you mean by same work standards?

20. Destiny's Child

This seems to be happening a lot lately – as the Government becomes more and more fascist – doing the bidding of their corporate masters – the presented ‘public opinion’ seems to go in the opposite direction of personal experience.

This has not always been the case, usually public opinion would be the agreed consensus amongst a poll of friends – but these days I cannot fidn anyone who supposedly supports the Tory madness.

Remember the claim that ‘people voted for the cuts’ and the infamous “most people accept the cuts have to happen” – so often played out by the media?

Well this graph doesn’t bear this out – thanks to another LC poster for this.
http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/MFTA-RAD.png

We are being lied to by the right mwing media – it’s now at the levels of 1936 Germany. Soon we will be hearing downright lies from the media as they desperately try to put a good face on an unmitigated disaster.

It’s PR gone mad – but you cannot lie your way out of recession.

Lets shutdown the country on June 30th and demonstrate who the real ‘wealth creators’ are.
I’d like to see how many banks profit without a workforce to ponce off.

21. Destiny's Child

@18

Are you saying we should compete with Chinese slave labour? You go right ahead my friend – I’ll pass thanks.

The problems in the economy have been coming for a long time. The crisis of Capitalism never left us since Marx’s time – they just got better at covering it up.

The falling standards of living have been happening since the gold standard was dropped and we had a pur FIAT currency. It’s the only way they could ‘keep you in the manner to which you are accustomed’ – without impacting profits.

However the supplementation of income with debt – and housing bubbles (mainly) is well and truly finished.

What you are experiencing is REALITY – a reality which has been covered up for the last 30 years and is only now coming home to roost.

whne the people finally cotton on – there will be hell to pay. Nothing is as scary as the public scorned.
Already we’re seeing a collapse in the faith in politics and democracy – that’s why we have a coalition – and next time they’ll probably try the minority parties

22. Workman Fred

@19. Fungus

“Because they can’t compete – that’s why it is fair! Competition creates efficiency”

No! It creates BIG tensions between certain people and makes British workers homeless!

I think the example I gave the other day fits well so I’ll repeat.
A gang of British builders are earning just enough to feed their family, pay the mortgage and bills, they have nothing at all left for luxuries.
One day they turn up for work and are told that when they move on to the next job the price being paid for the work they do is coming down because some overseas workers, who don’t have a family to feed, mortgage & bills to pay can AFFORD to work for less and have now taken the work away from the British workers.

You now have a gang of British workers who now have no work and all that entails.
So why don’t the British workers just work for less? Because they can’t afford to, less means not feeding the family or paying the bills and mortgage.
Trying to find another job is next to impossible and so they will now lose their house as they can’t pay the mortgage and will have look to the council to house them!!
So thanks to the overseas workers taking the jobs, because they can work at a more competitive price, we have made British workers homeless, Mmm makes sense!

“What do you mean by same work standards”

If every company in the EU had to treat its workforce the same, have the same standards as they do in Britain and pay the same, for a truly competitive EU workplace, then many who come here wouldn’t need to would they? British workers wouldn’t lose their job, would they?

Unless you can tell me it is all fair in the EU and the reason so many come here is because they like working in Britain!?

23. Workman Fred

@ 21. Destiny’s Child

”Are you saying we should compete with Chinese slave labour”

What!!!
I suppose I could say that, because countries like China, with their slave workforce, work for such low rates, we in Britain are losing many jobs so that companies can make more money, if I had my way I wouldn’t allow any company that moved jobs from Britain to overseas to sell their product in Britain, full stop. You take our jobs from us you lose the sales and profit you thought you’d make by selling to the very people you have taken the jobs from!!

”What you are experiencing is REALITY”

I know and it hurts like hell, especially watching your fellow British workmates lose all he has to immigrants so some company can make more money, but then it’s the government I blame and the unions for not sticking up for us.

”there will be hell to pay”

I really hope so and I hope it hurts Labour, the Tories and their yellow friends, big time!

”and next time they’ll probably try the minority parties”

TOO RIGHT!
And I could be voting ukip, to give the main parties a kicking for not sorting things out and to stick my fingers up to that unfair, immigration flooding, money grabbing, British job losing, law making EU.

I’m a working class man, I should vote labour, like hell I will unless they fight like mad for me from now until the next election, and I know many who are thinking the same and never voted for minority parties before.

24. Workman Fred

@14. Chaise Guevara

“weren’t you the guy going on about how government intervention is terrible a few days ago”

You’ve lost me.
Anywho! I think it’s obvious how I stand, I stand for my fellow British workmate and what’s best for them, and I think you know by now what you look like doesn’t come into it, if you’re British working class you are one of my own, together we can show “them” enough is enough!

As Destiny’s Child says, “Lets shutdown the country on June 30th and demonstrate who the real ‘wealth creators’ are”

Let’s do it and do it until “they” stop the madness!


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (enhanced version) http://bit.ly/l1nuix

  2. Arrun D.

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (enhanced version) http://bit.ly/l1nuix

  3. Pubteam

    RT @libcon: The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (enhanced version) http://t.co/eCqvNWp

  4. sunny hundal

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (the enhanced version) http://t.co/DInt5oI

  5. Ray Sirotkin

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (the enhanced version) http://t.co/DInt5oI

  6. Dennis North

    RT @sunny_hundal: The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (the enhanced version) http://t.co/DInt5oI

  7. David Mitchell

    RT @sunny_hundal: The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (the enhanced version) http://t.co/DInt5oI

  8. Susan Thorne

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (enhanced version) | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/Pq6VIu7 via @libcon

  9. HullRePublic

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (enhanced version) http://t.co/nwADD8M

  10. Jaime Campbell

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (the enhanced version) http://t.co/DInt5oI

  11. Richard Lawson

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (the enhanced version) http://t.co/DInt5oI

  12. peppe rella

    “@sunny_hundal: The myth of Tory credibility on the economy http://t.co/TvMLM44”next myth to bust, pvt better than efficient public services

  13. sunny hundal

    In case you missed it over the weekend: "The myth of Tory credibility on the economy" http://bit.ly/l1nuix

  14. The Bee

    In case you missed it over the weekend: "The myth of Tory credibility on the economy" http://bit.ly/l1nuix

  15. Jill Hayward

    In case you missed it over the weekend: "The myth of Tory credibility on the economy" http://bit.ly/l1nuix

  16. hana riazuddin

    RT @libcon: The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (updated) http://t.co/AxE3vUX

  17. New tory message: “There’s little difference between Osborne and Balls’ plans on economy” | Liberal Conspiracy

    [...] Sunny Hundal     June 6, 2011 at 2:42 pm I pointed over the weekend that the Tories are increasingly sending out conflicting messages on whether their drastic action saved the economy, or whether Osborne’s cuts are similar to [...]

  18. Daniel Pitt

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy http://t.co/GFjwZmD #ConDemNation

  19. Doubts are cast on the Tories’ economic credibility, an old plot to oust Blair is revealed, and the Archbishop attacks: round up of political blogs for 4 – 10 June | British Politics and Policy at LSE

    [...] The Westminster Blog covers the news that 52 economists – including two former Whitehall advisers and two signatories of last year’s high-profile letter backing the Tories’ cuts – have called on Osborne to change tack on the economy. The Coffee House is less than impressed, and John Redwood says that those who are calling for a Plan B need to better understand Plan A. Faisal Islam dissects Osborne’s claim to flexibility, but Michael Burke at Left Foot Forward blogs on ‘the madness of more of the same’, as Sunny Hundal provides a sustained critique on the Tories’ economic credibility. [...]

  20. paulstpancras

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (updated) | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/W23dwcR via @libcon

  21. Pamela Heywood

    The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (enhanced version) http://t.co/VdeMzKo

  22. sunny hundal

    @jamiepullman but its not playing well – http://t.co/sxaIn6N9 and http://t.co/bcZaHnKM





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  • Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy.

 
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