Is it tactically wise for Osborne’s critics to predict a recession?
Duncan Weldon is forecasting a “double dip” recession. I’m not sure this is wise.
I don’t mean he’s wrong – he might not be. What I mean is that an economic forecast should not be a description of the future. It should instead be based upon an assessment of the costs of being wrong versus the benefits of being right.
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Electoral reform: only a broad alliance can keep Tories out
One argument advanced by many the Labour left against the Alternative Vote is that it entrenches centrism and ‘mushy politics’. Libcon regular Owen Jones makes that argument today on his blog.
I believe this is mistaken on two levels. In fact, the Alternative Vote will allow more plurality and should be embraced by lefties for reasons outlined below.
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Labour ministers slam rising NHS waiting times
Update: Labour shadow health secretary John Healey has also sent us a comment on rising NHS waiting times:
This independent report will further add to people’s concerns that the NHS is slipping backwards again under David Cameron.
Front-line staff and managers are massively distracted by David Cameron’s top-down reorganisation of the health service, and the signs of strain are now there for all to see.
So much for Mr Cameron’s pledge to ‘protect’ the NHS.”
Diane Abbott MP, shadow minister for health, earlier sent Liberal Conspiracy a statement slamming the jump in waiting times, highlighted by today’s NHS report by King’s Fund.
She said:
Alarm bells will be ringing with the publication of this report. The report makes clear that hospital waiting times have hit their highest level in three years because of the strain being put on the NHS by David Cameron and Andrew Lansley’s car-crash NHS reorganisation.
Waiting times are soaring and many of the GPs I meet are already facing offering a reduced service to patients.
David Cameron has turned Labour’s concrete target that 90 per cent of patients would be treated within 18 weeks of referral to hospital into a vague commitment.
The message from this report is clear: you cannot trust the Tories with the NHS. Under this Tory-led government, the NHS is descending into chaos, services are slipping backwards and patient care is being put at risk.
The King’s Fund report showed that 18-week waiting times are moving upwards, in the graph below.
NHS graph that could spell doom for govt
The big story today is the release of the quarterly NHS performance report by the King’s Fund think-tank.
The Guardian has already picked up on the fact that managers expect to achieve their efficiency targets through ward closures and job cuts.
What was that Mr Cameron, no front-line cuts to the NHS?
But the report also points to one particularly big area of danger for the government: waiting times.
The report says:
The latest 18-week referral-to-treatment waiting times data for February 2011 shows increases in the percentage of patients waiting longer than 18 weeks for inpatients and outpatients.
The proportion still on waiting lists and waiting longer than 18 weeks fell, as did the proportion waiting longer than 6 weeks for diagnostics. However, for all stages of waiting the trend since June 2010 remains upwards.
Update: Diane Abbott MP has slammed the jump in waiting times.
Alarm bells ringing anyone?
Here is the ITN news report
Is this the most absurd super-injunction ever?
A British court of Protection has issued what is described as one of the most draconian super-injunctions ever.
The order involves a mother – referred to as ‘M’ – who is seeking court permission to let her brain-damaged daughter die.
The super-injunction covers media coverage of the ongoing case. The court order bans journalist communicating with M or any other member of her family: “whether orally in person, or by telephoning, text message, email or other means”.
The Court of Protection specifically bans all journalists from contacting 65 people or coming within 50m of four properties.
Flouting that ban risks being found guilty of contempt of court, which could mean a fine or prison.
But guess what? We don’t know who those people are or what properties the court refers to.
The Telegraph report says:
Legal experts said they had never seen the press restricted in such a way, in powers usually used to protect vulnerable women from ex-partners or keep animal rights protesters away from scientists.
It comes after growing concern at the use of privacy orders being obtained by the rich and famous in order to prevent details of their sex lives being published.
FleetStreetBlues blog is more straight-laced:
It’s a ridiculous, draconian ruling that makes a mockery of free speech. But without knowing who it is we’re not allowed to talk to or where it is we’re not allowed to go, it’s also literally impossible to uphold. Who’s making this stuff up?
Is Libya slowly turning into a Vietnam-style conflict?
The announcement that we’re sending 10 or 12 “experienced military officers” to Benghazi, it should be clear, changes precisely nothing on the ground in Libya. Ever since the passing of the UNSC 1973, or even possibly before, there will have been special forces/spooks in the country doing similar jobs.
No, what William Hague’s admission signifies is our desperation at how the situation has turned against the rebels, and also our inability to do anything about it other than gestures.
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Eric Pickles wins award for talking rubbish
Secretary of State for Communities Eric Pickles has been voted the winner of Friends of the Earth’s Talking Rubbish Award over his hyped-up claims that people are terrified of the ‘bin police’.
He was presented with his award outside Parliament today.
Online voters opted overwhelmingly for Pickles as the Government Minister talking the most rubbish in the green charity’s contest -set up in response to the Coalition’s record of talking trash whilst failing to set out a sensible plan for dealing with England’s waste.
Friends of the Earth’s waste campaigner Julian Kirby said:
Government Ministers have been keen to trash recycling when in reality it’s more popular and successful than ever.
Eric Pickles in particular has been at war with councils when he should be supporting them to cut the amount we needlessly throw away. David Cameron needs to take control of his hysterical, squabbling Ministers and set a goal to halve the nation’s black bag waste by 2020.
Three Ministers were nominated for the first-ever Talking Rubbish Award for the ‘bin myths’ they have attempted to spread:
* Eric Pickles, Communities Secretary: Recycling means everyone is terrified of the ‘bin police’
* Bob Neill, Under-Secretary for Communities and Local Government: Rotting food is piling up in our homes.
* Caroline Spelman, Environment Secretary: Tyrannical bin taxes are being scrapped by the Government.
The Ministers declined to attend the awards ceremony.
Friends of the Earth is calling on David Cameron to halve the nation’s black-bag waste by boosting recycling and helping people and businesses to cut down on unnecessary rubbish.
From a press release
Blairities plan “Purple Book”
Eighteen days too late, the Blairite “Progress” group has announced their intention to spend Lord Sainsbury’s money on publishing a new pamphlet in September called the “Purple Book”, which aims to emulate the success of the Lib Dem “Orange Book”.
Contributions will come from Alan Milburn, Liam Byrne, Tessa Jowell, Paul “the Thinker” Richards, Tristram Hunt and a range of other credible and exciting activists who have hitherto been denied the media platforms to put forward their fascinating ideas.
Those discussing the project hope that they may in future be known as the Purple Book group rather than Blairites, and apparently look forward to the possibility of a Purple/Orange coalition based around the “liberal centre” rather than the social democratic Left.
The name “Purple Book” was coined because “Purple was the colour of new Labour,” says one of those involved. “It’s what you get if you combine red and blue. It symbolises the need to stay on the centre ground.”
The pamphlet will include essays on the economy, the role of the State, public service reform, welfare, crime, the family and social mobility. The overarching theme will be the need to move away from reliance on a big State and redistribute power to individuals and communities.
The announcement of this new pamphlet has already given members of the “Purple Book Group” the opportunity to brief journalists from the Times anonymously about how useless they think Ed Miliband is, which is a really helpful thing to do just over two weeks before the local elections.
A few years ago, these guys were the dominant faction in a party which won successive landslide elections. Now they are reduced to using handouts from multi millionaires to try to follow in the footsteps of right wing Liberal Democrats. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
Why a double-dip recession is looking increasingly likely
Over the past few weeks I’ve become very worried about the state of the British, and indeed world, economy. So worried in fact that I’ve changed my central view.
I used to think that we would experience a period of sluggish growth with a downside chance of an actual double dip, but now expect a double dip with sluggish growth as the most likely upside scenario.
I’m writing this a week and a half before we get the first look at the Q1 2011 growth figures, but I’m more concerned about figures later in the year. For me to change my view again, I’d have to see very strong figures next week. Something which looks unlikely.
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Are Tories “listening” or “pressing ahead” on NHS changes?
A BBC headline declares today that the man assessing choice and competition during a review of the Health bill says it is not a PR exercise.
But Sir Stephen Bubb, who will report for the review on choice and competition, says he is not “biddable”. Over the next few weeks the NHS Future Forum will talk to clinicians, patient representatives and other groups to discuss concerns over the government’s Health and Social Care Bill.
But the government’s own supporters have admitted there won’t be much listening going on. So why don’t the Tories say where they stand?
continue reading… »
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