How Labour forced Tories to defend the ‘squeezed middle’
Its one of those unstated rules in politics: if you want to win over your opponent, make sure you’re the one framing the parameters of the debate. The Conservatives played that hand well pre-election by forcing Labour on the defensive over the deficit and national debt levels.
Labour’s subsequent attempt to triangulate (saying they would also push for ‘savage’ cuts) failed and their economic credibility splintered between people angry that nothing was being done about the banks, and those suddenly fearful about national debt levels.
This budget is perhaps the first sign that Labour is regaining the initiative again.
continue reading… »
Live Budget discussion
Ken overtakes Boris in race for Mayor
A new poll out today shows a big increase over the past few months in support for Ken Livingstone, helping him take the lead in the race to be Mayor of London:
Ken Livingstone 46 (+11 since October)
Boris Johnson 44 (no change since October)
When second preferences are reallocated, Ken leads 51-49.
Last September, the Evening Standard’s headlines declared “Boris to be Mayor again”, after a poll showed him way ahead of Ken. I wonder how they’ll cover this poll?
Even Tories know Osborne’s tax changes won’t help lower paid
Osborne will use the increase tax threshold to claim that he has lowered personal tax bills, and is trying to take the poor out of tax.
That the claim is misleading was obvious as soon as this key budget pledge was pre-spun on 1st March – as the claim relies on ignoring the VAT rise.
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New #Yes2AV Postcards site launched
By Matt Wootton and Rupert Read
When the #No2AV campaign chose to lie last month about the costs of the coming referendum, Yes campaigners found there was no real arbiter of truth in British politics.
Sunny Hundal’s complaint was batted back and forth between Advertising Standards and the Electoral Commission. Yes to Fairer Vote’s campaign to petition the authorities fell on deaf ears.
But if we’ve learned anything from the art of reframing, it’s to take your opponent’s apparent strengths and turn them against him.
continue reading… »
Live coverage of budget today
Liberal Conspiracy will be hosting a live chat with our friends at the New Statesman, LabourList, Left Foot Forward and the TUC blog on the Budget speech.
In the mean time, let’s get the discussion started – tell us your predictions for today’s Budget, and what would you do differently if you were in George Osborne’s place today?
Libertarians attack #ukuncut
Right-wing think tank Institute of Economic Affairs, clearly rattled by the success of the UK Uncut movement, decided to call in one of the great minds of the Libertarian Movement to debunk the movement.
So they summoned Tim Worstall to take time out from his busy schedule of leaving comments on Comment is Free, Liberal Conspiracy and other blogs in order to write them a pamphlet all about UK Uncut’s claims.
You can read the pamphlet here. It starts off with the not-at-all smug and very witty point that:
“It is just and righteous that every generation should demonstrate about the way their parents left the world. It is similarly just and righteous that those parents should point out that matters are a little more complex than they seem at 11 pm in the student bar.”
Tim then discusses four case studies, and I’ll leave it to the UK Uncut people to respond to the points he makes, because I want to skip to the really funny bit.
In his conclusion, after explaining to the young people how unrealistic and ill-thought through their ideas are, Tim concludes that:
“More specifically, we might well want to abolish corporation tax…Far from demonstrating in shops to try to get companies to increase the tax they pay, we should be demonstrating to reduce the burden of taxes on companies – or to abolish it.”
Now, it is just and righteous that Tim and like-minded folk should write pamphlets based on their economic theories, however poorly those theories have fared in the real world over the past few years. It is similarly just and righteous to point out that matters are a little more complex than they might seem down at the golf club after a couple of G&Ts.
There are about eight people who would support a demonstration to abolish corporation tax, and seven of them would be too busy sitting at a computer typing another hilarious snarky comment on Polly Toynbee’s most recent article to turn up. It’s another public policy winner on a par with “solve the lack of affordable childcare by scrapping child protection regulations”.
If you are going to write a pamphlet about how naive and silly UK Uncut protesters are, it is best not to finish it off with a set of policy proposals which no democratically-elected government would touch with a barge pole. It’s no surprise that UK Uncut are a successful and growing political movement and the “abolish corporation tax” movement isn’t.
Libya bombing “less popular than Iraq”
Polling firm YouGov has compared public opinion about the military action against Libya to equivalent data from 2003 about the war on Iraq. They found:
Fewer people think that military action in Libya (45%) is the right thing to do than thought the same about the invasion of Iraq (53%).
33% think that the Coalition is making little or no effort to minimise civilian casualties, or are unsure, compared to just 8% who thought the same about Iraq.
64% trust the British military to tell the truth about what is happening in Libya, compared to 83% who trusted them at the time of the Iraq war.
43% trust Cameron to tell the truth, compared to 62% who trusted Tony Blair.
Only 21% back sending ground troops into Libya, with 69% opposed.
A separate poll for ComRes found that only 35% supported the bombing, with 43% opposed.
Growth down, borrowing up: Osborne blames “Wrong kind of inflation”
Big news on the public finances in today’s FT. It would seem that the Chancellor’s Office has had their first look at the OBR forecasts and they don’t like what they see.
In an attempt to get their excuses in first, we have a front page story in the FT. A story which doesn’t seem to entirely stack up.
Ignore the ephemera about a ‘Learjet levy’ on private planes and the entirely expected news that the OBR is going to downgrade growth – the big news is that borrowing forecasts are being revised up.
Apparently this is because of the ‘wrong kind of inflation’. continue reading… »
Lecturers plan first UK-wide strike in five years
Today, lecturers in 47 universities in England will walk out, following similar actions in Scotland and Wales last week, and Northern Ireland yesterday. This will be followed on Thursday March 24th by UK-wide strike action, the first taken by academics in five years. Thousands of staff from 63 universities are expected to join the picket lines unless successful negotiations take place in the next 48 hours.
The dispute centres on planned changes to the USS, the main pension scheme used in the Higher Education sector. These include increasing employee contributions while freezing those of employers, and moving new entrants from a final salary scheme to a version based on career average earnings. The University and College Union says that the propsals are motivated not by financial pressure on the scheme, but by a straightforward unwillingness to pay, which the universities deny, citing the cost implications of people living longer.
continue reading… »
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» Revealed: govt to restrict abortion counselling despite Nadine Dorries vote
» Would raising the tax threshold actually help the poorest?
» To win London, Ken Livingstone has to step outside his comfort zone
» This trade agreement with India will destroy thousands of lives
» UK debt hasn’t hit £1 trillion – mostly because of QE
» The benefits of being a “burden” on society
» Today’s economic figures will simply confirm UK’s “lost decade”
» Have Labour realised the election is more than three years away?
» Violence in the office
» Want a more responsible capitalism? Reform how pensions work
» The world is entering the third phase of the crisis, warns ILO
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