However, the Guardian puts them neck and neck, while the Sun puts FPTP ahead.

Polling on AV is so all-over-the-place it’s impossible to tell what will happen, even discounting the fact that the campaign still has months to run. Certainly cherry-picking one poll over all the others is hardly helpful.

There are far too many don’t knows to be truly accurate BUT… the trend is clear, those pollsters asking the referendum question are getting more support for Yes than for No. And more importantly regardless of the polls question the don’t knows are tending (with a few exceptions) to move to Yes more than No.

The interesting trend is YouGov’s longer running poll, that Yes had a lead when the coalition (or Lib Dems) hadn’t abandoned some of it’s core vote, lost out greatly to No, and are now coming back.

It’s going to be an interesting race.

@ 3 Lee Griffin

“The interesting trend is YouGov’s longer running poll, that Yes had a lead when the coalition (or Lib Dems) hadn’t abandoned some of it’s core vote, lost out greatly to No, and are now coming back.”

Well, here’s hoping. I’m worried about the effect of three months of the TPA spreading lies about AV, though.

I was a ‘don’t know’ who has now moved to ‘yes’. However I had to do my own research to work out what I really thought. The information on the campaigns seems to boil down to: ‘its expensive, vote NO’ and ‘its fairer; vote YES’. Neither of which was enough to persuade me in either direction.

I hope that the ‘yes’ vote manages to win.

Mary:

I think it’s a problem with the multifaceted nature of how these campaigns take place. I refuse to accept that either side aren’t putting forward a reasoned argument for their stances, but I do accept that both sides stances require some initiative by individuals to find.

The media doesn’t care about finer details right now, they want to know in one sentence or less why each side is voting for what they’re voting for, they recognise that right now, over 2 months ahead of the polls, people aren’t looking for the blow by blow reasoning of why one system is better than the other, so when it is put in the news it’s little more than paying lip service to impartiality while using soundbites from both camps.

Furthermore most are more interested in the more personal-political implications of this vote. Where there is discussion it constantly seems to focus on Nick Clegg or David Cameron, or how one party may benefit more than another.

As we draw closer I expect more will be done to more explicitly put these arguments about. I expect more leaflets to be around, more ads, more media exposure requiring more complexity than “it’s too expensive” or “it’s fairer”. This is what happens at elections, and even then the finer details are things that the general population really don’t seem to care about having shoved down their throat.