And yet I still can’t see EdM as PM. He has less charisma than John Major.

As you say the coalition is very unpopular before the cuts start to bite, when they do really start to bite and bite hard, and people personally feel the “we are all in this together” there will be…..how did the Kaiser Chiefs put it “I predict a…..

Richard@

Actors and rock stars need charisma, not politicians.

Ed M’s playing a good calm game and differentiating himself from Cameron’s smarmy showy charlatanism.

Hi RedRag1

Love your blog.
Isn’t it great to see the tide turning and so quickly.

My old man said that we just had to be patient, this government’s downfall would be its laziness, incompetence and corruption.
For once he’s right, something that doesn’t happen often in our house.

“Actors and rock stars need charisma, not politicians.”

Tell that to Neil Kinnock and William Hague. Whether we like it or not, charisma matters in politics.

Ah yes, the vacuum of charisma that is John Major…wasn’t he the one to get the most popular share of the vote of all time, yes he was…and wasn’t he PM for about 7 years, well he was. Well if Ed is anything like that, then maybe Labour might form the next government in 2015.

An Angus Reid poll at the end of January had an 11% Labour lead – so there seem to be quite a few outliers.

Wait for the local elections – I know London isn’t involved, but the rest of England is, and some councils have all seats up for grabs, like here (Cheshire East).

I can’t help noticing that this site has a proclivity for displaying statistics when they display a positive message for his side. I think this says as much about the psychopathology of those who run it, as the facts behind the statistics themselves. Does popularity matter? Placing to much worth on popularity is a personality failing and is often an impediment to effective decision-making.
Re polls: One recent survey demonstrated how unpopular David Cameron was. A week after his speech on multiculturalism, it would be interesting to see his ratings now.

Keep in mind, this is all before the Tory cuts have actually been decided and hit people properly

I suspect that there’s an element of Ricardian Equivalence going on. The story has been about ‘massive cuts’ ever since the election – people have internalised it.

6 – he was against Neil Kinnock.

wasn’t he the one to get the most popular share of the vote of all time, yes he was

No he wasn’t. He did get the largest number of votes of all time, but that’s something different.

Actually the Conservative vote has been slipping since December. It’s just that most of it has been going to ‘don’t know’ or to UKIP. That decline has been disguised by a similar shift from the other Parties, particularly the Lib Dems (over a quarter of their May voters are now ‘don’t know’s or ‘won’t vote’s). So the Conservatives have maintained their share in the polls, but based on fewer people.

It’s only now that Labour is starting to pick up a little bit. Even so as many Tories have gone to UKIP since the general election as have switched to Labour.

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Labour. Most voters don’t have ‘road to Damascus’ moments – they switch between Parties via a period of uncertainty. But it does mean that Labour has to make the effort to win them over – or they may slip back to their old ways.