“It’s worth noting too that the changes are beyond the margin of error, so they do reflect underlying shifts in public opinion.”

You’ll still get the odd LibCon poster who won’t accept this though…

It’s worth noting too that the changes are beyond the margin of error, so they do reflect underlying shifts in public opinion.

Or it’s an outlier. Hard to be sure this far out from an actual election. The YouGov poll last night had Labour 2 points ahead of the Tories.

@2, “It’s an outlier”

Just how much evidence do you need before you realise that this Government is not the most popular in the UK’s history?

Or perhaps a big boy did it and ran away (again).

3 – More than one poll, if that’s OK with you? Mori is notoriously the most volatile of the pollsters, and before I’m satisfied that Labour are 10 points clear in the (largely meaningless) opinion polls, I’d like to see that confirmed by the historically more reliable ICM. 2 Days ago, the ICM figures were 35/39/15.

I’ve said here before that I expect this to happen in the Spring, but there’s no point getting all excited just yet.

It’s the snow’s fault of course.

It is worth noting that the next election is in 4 years.

6

Not necessarily. I doubt even many LD’s are that confident that the next GE won’t happen sooner. Of course there is scope for variations, and the future isn’t ours to see, but even if this one poll IS an outlier, the general trend for underlying support levels is pretty clear – look at the YouGov summary of polls.

It’s hard to see how LD support is going anywhere but into single figures; it’s been hovering around 10% for a while, and recent polls don’t take into account O&E, the bad economic news, and continued LD failures on issues like Control Orders Lite.

Longer term the issue is what happens to former LD supporters who won’t vote Labour…it’s quite a few % points looking for a home!

It’s hard to see how LD support is going anywhere but into single figures; it’s been hovering around 10% for a while, and recent polls don’t take into account O&E, the bad economic news, and continued LD failures on issues like Control Orders Lite.

Not much of an incentive for LibDems wanting to call an election is there?

8 Tim J

That kinda depends… you might argue that if they keep tanking at this rate, a putsch might get rid of Clegg and result in a better position than if they try and stick it out until 2015. I reckon the Cleggites (and those who just can’t see any other way out) are more likely to stick it out and hope a miracle happens….. seems like a faint hope to me, they’re probably stuffed either way.

9. Galen 10: ” . . . They’re probably stuffed either way.”

They’re stuffed all right – they were stuffed the minute they signed the coalition agreement . Any supposed left of centre party that sells its soul to be part of a right wing coalition ends up stuffed. Ask Blair about his coalition experience as junior partner to that right wing half-wit G. W. Bush.