Libdems poll lower than UKIP amongst youth


by Sunny Hundal    
January 25, 2011 at 9:30 am

In a YouGov poll on Sunday, the Libdem share of the vote amongst 18 – 24 year olds went as low as 7%.

That is roughly around the national average, but much lower than the share Libdems were polling with them closer to the election.

In the same poll and in the same demographic, UKIP poll at 8%. Ouch!

This may be margin of error of course, but still worth noting.

(hat-tip Dominyk Fraser from here)

Naturally, UKIP are excited.


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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments


1. Scott Redding

In a recent Indy/Comres poll, the Greens were only 2% behind the Lib Dems in the Midlands. We were also tied amongst 35-44 yr olds. Maybe the Lib Dems should be listed under “Other” in national polls.

2. Mulligrubs

Does this raise the spectre of a Tory/ UKIP coalition at some time in the future? That would be interesting – if not exactly desirable.

3. claude

Excellent.

4. donpaskini

It is highly entertaining, but I think is about small sample sizes – in this poll in January 2011 UKIP was polling at 0% amongst 18-24 year olds:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-200111.pdf

There will probably come a time soon, however, when UKIP overtakes the Lib Dems.

5. Tim Worstall

“There will probably come a time soon, however, when UKIP overtakes the Lib Dems.”

Already happened mate. Euro-elections. Tories, UKIP, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, in order.

6. Steve M

And sometime yet for the Greens to over take.

7. donpaskini

“Already happened mate. Euro-elections. Tories, UKIP, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, in order.”

Oh indeed. I was thinking post-2010 election. By the end of year, could easily be that UKIP are regularly polling in third place, even before the traditional Euro election boost.

8. Tim Worstall

“even before the traditional Euro election boost.”

One of the biggest problems I had as a press officer was the pollsters. They continually kept using voting intentions for UKIP in local/Westminster elections in a non euro-election year as guides to voting intentions for UKIP in a euro-election.

One of the big academic studies was predicting 0-3 seats for UKIP.

We kept trying to point out that there is indeed this euro-election boost for what is perceived to be a single issue party: about the euro-election in fact.

Grr.

9. Roger Mexico

@ donpaskini

Can you take Sunny somewhere quiet and explain to him about sample size and weighting. Use a baseball bat if that’s what it takes.

YouGov’s figures for 18-24 year-olds are usually based on an unweighted sample of about 120-130 – though Sunday’s figures are only 88. This means that the UKIP 8% figure is based on literally 4 or 5 people choosing them.

This particular demographic is the most under-represented in YouGov’s panel (most 18-24s have better things to do than answer consumer questionnaires) so the these numbers are always weighted up to reflect the population as a whole. However no internal weighting of the age range columns is done (the same applies to the regional breakdowns) so this sample could also be a very unrepresentative of 18-24 year olds.

If you want further reason for doubt, the YouGov poll for today’s Sun:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-240111.pdf

shows that among this age range Lib Dems are getting 11% and UKIP er … 0%. So I assume the headline will change to ‘UKIP wiped out among youth’

Sigh. Want to borrow a baseball bat?

10. Phil Hunt

@2 Mulligrubs: Does this raise the spectre of a Tory/ UKIP coalition at some time in the future? That would be interesting – if not exactly desirable.

If the AV referendum passes, I can easily see UKIP getting MPs, particularly if the government is unpopular.

11. Roger Mexico

Incidentally, in the figure referred to in #1:

http://www.comres.co.uk/page1902124918.aspx
[page 17 of pdf]

the Lib Dem v Green figures in the Midlands were based on 18 v 15 voters and 35-44 tie on 10 v 9 voters. And the voting intention for the whole country came out at 12% Lib Dem to 5% Green.

That’s probably the best poll the Greens have had recently by far. Most others put them at 2% and ComRes always seem to produce the best results for the ‘minor’ Parties. None the less the Greens do seem to have taken about 1% of those voting off the Lib Dems since May.

To keep Tim Worstall happy though, UKIP has done well in the polls recently. They regularly get 5% in YouGov polls, mainly from dissatisfied Tories but also quite a bit from Lib Dem. It’s just that the UKIP voter is more likely to be male, over 40 and ‘lower class’ (C2DE) than a young 18-24 year old.

12. George W. Potter

Of course, in today’s ICM poll the Lib Dems are at 15%. But we wouldn’t want to be looking at individual polls selectively for the purpose of political point scoring now would we?

13. Galen10

12 George Potter

Yes indeed, if only there was a way of measuring LD support over a longer period eh?

Oh, wait……..

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average

I make that an average for the LD’s of 9.62% based on 8 polls, all in Jan. 2011. Polls since late last year have consistantly had LD support hovering around 10%; I doubt the recent economic news will be pushing your figures up somehow.

14. William

12. George W. Potter
“Of course, in today’s ICM poll the Lib Dems are at 15%. But we wouldn’t want to be looking at individual polls selectively for the purpose of political point scoring now would we?”

Ah yes, the ICM poll of the 15th January (not the 26th)…

Is that 15% between 18-24 year old’s, or 15% of the population as a whole? We wouldn’t be failing to read and understand the point of the article would we?


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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  5. Phil BC

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  6. Jonn Elledge

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  7. Toxx etc

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  11. Socio Imagination

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  22. Simon Grover

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  33. Abi H

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  35. Peter Pannier

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  41. James Bailey

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  43. Roisin Bound

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  48. Osborne under pressure as GDP gets the winter blues and control orders are rebranded: political blog round up for 22 – 28 January 2011 | British Politics and Policy at LSE

    [...] The UK Independence Party (UKIP) is currently polling higher than the Lib Dems (8 per cent to 7 per cent) amongst 18-24 year old voters; ouch, says Liberal Conspiracy. [...]

  49. Sean Hanley

    http://bit.ly/e0xATL #ukip are the new #libdems. Blimey.





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