Yay!!! It’s just a shame, as a Green supporter, that the Others don’t ever seem to go up.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Ahem.

Richard, is that in reference to my post or the opening post?

Government approval rating at -20 in that same poll is probably the most significant part.

@1 Matt

“It’s just a shame, as a Green supporter, that the Others don’t ever seem to go up.”

I’m not a practising Green, but I sincerely hope that your time will come if and when AV gets through. A Green Party with teeth would be good news for the British political sphere.

maybe a green presence in government might be a good thing but have you seen the greens with fianna fail in ireland? all their idealism in opposition went out the window and they seem to be the same as all the others. they’ll probably get hammered in the upcoming elections also.

Next few days will show an even worsening support for L-Ds as even their “core” is now disillusioned about VAT rises, the Quango bonfire (damp squib) and bankers bonuses. The last of these is St Vincent of Cable’s latest surrender to Osborne. L-D core is posing the question-”What are they for?”

The Lib Dem’s have been at a Limbo party the past few months; ‘how low can you go’!

They are completely fucked lol!

2 – the opening post.

Agree that it is a shame that the Greens seem to be picking up so little support, though one hope’s that in places like Norwich where they have a presence, they are doing so. That wouldn’t provide big enough numbers to impact on national polling data, but would perhaps deliver seats.

Also – the ongoing collapse of the Lib Dems suggests two things.

1 – the “we are making a difference” spin is failing to convince their own support.
2 – the notion of left and right in politics is still strong even if it is not well defined.

I am amazed it is as high as 7%.

They will struggle throughout 2011 and get totally fucked in the devolved elections. But they will recover, back in double figures by the end of 2012 and probably poll around 15% in 2014. They could even do better once the finances recover to allow the goodies to start flowing. Personal allowances raised to 10k – a sure vote winner once it gets into pay packets. It’s the gamble Clegg has taken.

But as I wrote a couple of days ago it doesn’t matter. The lib dems don’t get power through poll results (realistically), they get it through the performance of other parties leading to hung parliaments. realistically election results of between 12% to 26% give them a chunk of MPs and the ability to enter coalitions when parliaments are hung. This gives the party freedom to do and say unpopular things (and gives other parties cover for doing so).

Planeshift

You analasys may be flawed somewhat by the assumption they would retain a rump of seats.

All else being equal and uniform (so Tories and Labour getting what they did before, and a uniform swing across the country) if the Lib Dems got 15, 12 or 9 percent in 2015, they would return 32, 27 or 12 seats.

But that’s all else being equal and uniform.

It overlooks Labour winning round Lib Dem voters. It overlooks Labour recovering from lethargy of government and the drag factor of Gordon Brown. It overlooks too that the Tory “victory” of 36.9% was by no means a peak result, and that they could poll higher once the goodies start rolling in at the end of the parliament.

Polls right now have them running in single figures for numbers of seats.

And polls right now also show parties in coalition don’t rise and fall together. The Lib Dems are the ones losing ground while the Tories hover above their election result. That suggests something more to Lib Dem malaise than simple dislike of government.

As such there is no reason to assume the Lib Dems will recover as the fortunes of the government improve. (If they improve, if the economy takes a nose dive it gets even worse for them)

The danger is that Lib Dems lose so many seats that they become insignificant in influencing a majority Gvmnt? Some may say that is the case right now?