Even if UKIP get /every single/ conservative voter who came out at the last election, they’d still poll less than labour or the lib dems did. Interesting how many extra parties have decided to contest it the second time around.

Opportunism, much?

Indeed. The chances of UKIP doing anything serious here, or indeed anywhere, are 0.

The Tory right really are being a bunch of idiots, though. *Of course* the Tories shouldn’t be campaigning here – another right-leaning LibDem to help cancel out defections from the left-leaning LDs with principles would be helpful to the government, in exactly the way that winning a token number of votes in a seat that the Tories could never win in their own right wouldn’t be.

winning a token number of votes in a seat that the Tories could never win in their own right wouldn’t be.

They were only about 1,000 votes behind Woolas last time round, and increased their vote by nearly 9%. It’s a three-way marginal.

Don’t just accept the way that the tory right makes out UKIP is in any way shape or form a political force. It isn’t and Cameron knows it. UKIP only exists so that mad old fascists can try to threaten the conservative leadership with it. If they thought it would ever win anything they’d join.

I did some canvassing at the time of the local election. We only met a couple of people who said they’d vote UKIP. They fitted so perfectly into everyone’s stereotype of a drooling loony it was beyond belief and very very funny. I seriously doubt they managed to make it to a polling station.

UKIP is not a “second choice” for the vast majority of Tory voters. It is a refuge for those who consider themselves too posh to vote BNP.

From speaking to people in the Conservative Party, that’s how they feel about them too.

This was always going to happen. It is the first step towards a longer term electoral alliance in which informally they won’t campaign against eachother so that in a couple of years when they suggest a formal pact it will make those who oppose it appear like idiots for not just accepting formalisation of the existing status quo.

The irritating thing for both parties is that the tories could actually win the seat and the lib dems probably can’t.

The lib dems are suffering from the coalition and have seen support collapse. Labour’s just needs to hold up to keep them out, and labour are up in polling since the election – partly through lib dems shifting to labour.

But the tories could mop up a lot of anti-immigrant sentiment now woolas won’t do so. If the lib dems left the way clear, their anti-labour voters would shift to the tories.

But because lib dems got a handful more votes there than the tories last time – they can’t try things that way round.

“Indeed. The chances of UKIP doing anything serious here, or indeed anywhere, are 0.”

Ahem.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm

@ 7

Fair point, but obviously only where Europe’s concerned.

Yes, Tim – we know about the Euro elections: the ones that are held under a proportional system for large multi-member constituencies rather than ‘first past the post’. How did UKIP do in the General Election?

Erm… not very well, unless you call 3.9% of the vote a resounding endorsement of UKIP’s policies.

That’s twice the previous GE result which means that by, ooooh, 2050 we’ll be in charge of the whole universe, doesn’t it?

Sunny, are you actually saying that you think UKIP are in with a chance of winning this election? SRSLY?

Look, it’s a by election. In by elections, two candidates, normally the winner and second place, but not always, get momentum, and unless one of them really messes up, pretty much everyone else votes for one of the top two. Lots of minor parties crop up for the publicity, and struggle to save their deposit.

Unless Watkins messes up, it’s between him and the Labour candidate. Some will vote expressively for their issue party, and UKIP might do well, but the Tories accepting reality fairly publicly is something I’ve told my party to do in the past more’n once (why they wasted resources in Crewe and Nantwich remains beyond me).

@ By 2050, the bulk of your membership will have a combined average age of 110. Enjoy it while it lasts, Tom Wise and Ashley Mote certainly did.

Sunny, are you actually saying that you think UKIP are in with a chance of winning this election? SRSLY?

Err no, haven’t said that anywhere. But if UKIP are able to draw back enough Tory voters, they could make it much harder for the Libdems to get that east easily.

Ah, so you’re saying that because UKIP’ll try to appeal to disenchanted Tory voters, they’ll pick up people that might’ve considered voting Lib Dem?

Do you think the type of Tory that’ll vote UKIP would otherwise have voted Lib Dem? I don’t, myself.

I so wish we had AV already, it’d make this sort of discussion completely academic.

No, but they might pull back Tory voters who were considering voting Libdem. I bet some Libdem support has fallen since the election. So the job for Libdems will be harder than for Labour to keep that seat.

@4: Don’t just accept the way that the tory right makes out UKIP is in any way shape or form a political force. It isn’t and Cameron knows it.

Not at the moment, due to the electoral system. If the AV referendum passes, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them winning one or two Wedstminster seats.

Phil, even if it doesn’t pass (and I’m fairly sure it will), if Cameron wins or there’s another round of the current coalition next time, I’m fairly sure some of the current ‘safe’ Tory seats will start seeing substantial increases in UKIP vote. It wouldn’t surprise me if some of the disaffected Tory MPs defect to them either.

Clearly the media have in mind that there are only three ‘serious’ parties to discuss and lump all others together.

Whatever one’s views on local or the all important EU membeship question it is clear that the young UKIP party has achieved a substantial acredation in that their vote was 1/2 that of the third placed Conservative candidate and the 2000+ votes achieved out-stripped all the other ‘other parties’ by 1500+ votes. Essentially there were four parties in the running and then the ‘others’.

As we are facing some rather austere times I am questioning the amount of money we pay for the EU. How many millions is it we pay now I wonder? As the country is a net giver clearly we get nothing in return that we could not have funded ourselves in the first place.

I shall be watching UKIP’s progress with interest.

Nice to see Chris is one of these left-wing loons who hasn’t the first idea of what a Fascist actually is. Let me try to help Chris. UKIP want the following: Wanting to be governed by your own parliament? Not wanting to send £47 million of taxpayers money to Brussels per day? Not wanting layers of bureaucracy to impede on peoples lives? Wanting politicians to be accountable to the people? Wanting the people to have a say on issues that directly affect them? If political science has taught me one thing, then that is that those wants are the exact opposite of Fascism, which is all about a big state controlling people. I’m not sure how UKIP, which supports such the above choices, fits the bill as ‘Fascist’. I suggest you research what you’re about to say before opening your mouth and being embarrassed by somebody who knows what they’re on about.

Now, off you run back to ebay to buy that Che t-shirt. Ah, consumer capitalism… left-wing ay Chris!!!!