Between 2010–11 and 2013–14 average incomes are forecast to stagnate and both absolute and relative poverty among children and working-age adults are expected to rise, according to projections published today by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The IFS researchers forecast absolute and relative income poverty amongst children and working-age adults for each year to 2013–14, using a static tax and benefit micro-simulation model combined with official macroeconomic and demographic forecasts, taking into account current government policy.

They also forecast poverty under a scenario where the coalition Government simply implemented the plans for the tax and benefit system it inherited from the previous administration.

In more detail, they say:

• Median income, and therefore the relative poverty line, will fall in real terms, driven by the fall in real earnings;

• Absolute poverty amongst children will be roughly constant and that amongst working-age parents will fall by around 100,000, but absolute poverty among working-age adults without children will rise by about 400,000 until next year

• Poverty among working-age adults without children will continue rising, by about 300,000 and 200,000 for absolute and relative poverty respectively.

• The Government’s tax and benefit reforms act to increase relative poverty in 2012–13 amongst each of children, working-age parents and working age adults without children by about 100,000, and increase absolute poverty in 2012-13 by about 200,000 children, about 100,000 working age parents and about 100,000 working-age adults without children. This finding is at odds with the Government’s claim in the 2010 Spending Review that its reforms will have no measurable impact on child poverty in 2012–13.

Poverty beyond 2013–14 is likely to be affected by the Universal Credit, and future work will forecast poverty to the end of this Parliament when the Government publishes its Welfare Reform Bill.

The full report will be published tomorrow morning at a briefing.

Another key Coalition claim destroyed (this is becoming repetitive).

Reader comments

1. Liberal Conspiracy

   IFS report: Child Poverty to rise thanks to Coalition policies http://bit.ly/dYIc4J

2. David

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3. Break The Cuts

   Child poverty to rise as a result of government 'reforms'. The default Tory position is coming together nicely, yes?
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4. Pucci Dellanno

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5. Richyy Hetheringtiin

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6. Andrew Holland

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7. Wendy Maddox

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8. Wendy Maddox

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9. Chris Goulden

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10. TeresaMary

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11. Staffordshire UNISON

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