Pain early – isn’t that his strategy?

I thought he was a pain right from the start…. but I’m guessing that’s not what you meant

Thank you Sunny.

That’s started my day off nicely.

IpsosMori also showed Lab 39% Con 36% Lib Dem 14%.
The only shock in that is 14% of people are still daft enough to support the Lib Dems.

Sandy

yougov have them on 10% – so it isn’t the absolute number that matters – just the trend of significant falls in support.

Sunny

Bit early to put cameron’s plight down to policy rather than general ending of the post-election euphoria. The next year will be interesting though.

cjcjc

That may be a dangerous strategy – support falls faster than it rises in peacetime – as evidenced by the chart showing how gradual Major’s poll reovery was during the economic recovery.

m4e,

That may be a dangerous strategy – support falls faster than it rises in peacetime – as evidenced by the chart showing how gradual Major’s poll reovery was during the economic recovery.

True to a point, but Mr Major was part of the government which caused that recession (with the help of the ERM, quite directly). He had that stigma to overcome.

If we look at the more comparable situation with Mrs Thatcher, note the rapid recovery of her popularity in 1983. And whilst you may want to blame the Falklands, I would point out that in 1945 this country happily voted out a victorious wartime leader, so you are making assumptions. Note also the rise again in 1987 – there is a model that Mr Cameron can follow there which may be more comparable (certainly Labour so far are playing their part – continuing with the same people and policies (as far as I can tell) as did them so well at the last election).

Watchman

you’ll note that I used the words “in peace time” in my analysis.

Thatcher’s spike in support was because of a very popular war. It wasn’t clear from the start that would be the case, but it is how it turned out.

Also note that while Churchill was a popular wartime leader – his was a wartime government largely of Labour people who had supported him prior to him becoming PM.

War makes things very confused. It is rarely predictable at the start how it will be perceived by the end – and bland assumptions about liking war-leaders is rarely a sound basis for analysis.

In peacetime though – once support is low it can be a gradual process to raise it, especially as popularity falls quick when economies turn south, but raises more slowly when economies recover.

You are right that the Tories were not in charge when the collapse happened. But they will still be in charge during a lot of the pain attached to it. (Some directly resulting from the collapse, some policy driven against an narrative of blaming the collapse)

So although it would be surprising for them to be hit as hard as in the early 90s – it would be foolish to imagine recovery is as rapid as decline in support.

Haven’t we been here before? This Coalition of the Unprincipled’ is only a re-run of the Thatcher years – not even the Lib Dem position has changed that much as they voted against the Labour Government of Callaghan ( censure vote) to usher in thirteen years of Thatcherite Tory misery. They have done it again, although this time they have compounded the insult by clambering into bed with the Rotters – for the mirage of the Tory shilling! Goodbye Lib Dems – I wonder who will get your votes next time? Those who won’t learn by their historical mistakes are doomed to political extinction. Hey Ho! Enjoy it while it lasts Cleggy boy! Next stop – House of Lords?

@ 5. Watchman

You said

‘ That may be a dangerous strategy – support falls faster than it rises in peacetime – as evidenced by the chart showing how gradual Major’s poll reovery was during the economic recovery.

True to a point, but Mr Major was part of the government which caused that recession (with the help of the ERM, quite directly). He had that stigma to overcome. ‘

That is the problem for incumbent politicians. If they are in charge they get the blame for bad things that happen to people regardless whether it is their fault. The electorate have the attention span of a gnat. The 1990-92 recession was the ending of the Lawson boom. Entry into ERM was an attempt to control the inflationary consequences of the Lawson boom. Although Major was able to win an election in 1992 during a recession. He was tarnished through a loss of competency with the ERM exit. Major was in favour of ERM but the real man to blame was Lawson. However, the electorate did not agree and blamed Major et al for the ERM exit. Ironic really because it was the exit that got the economy out of the slump. Black Wednesday is a misnomer, should be known as Golden Wednesday.

You said

‘ Note also the rise again in 1987 – there is a model that Mr Cameron can follow there which may be more comparable ‘

The rise in popularity is otherwise known as the Lawson boom.

The problem for the coalition is they are going to take a lot of flak over the next few years. Moreover, they will likely be going into the next election with interest rates rising. There is not much they can do about that now they can’t manipulate monetary policy to the electoral cycle. The likes of Redwood would love to get politicians in charge of monetary policy again. However, the markets would crucify them if monetary policy was again going to be in the hands of fly by night politicians.

He wont win the next election.