Why Conservatives could win Phil Woolas’ seat


by Guest    
November 9, 2010 at 11:01 am

I’m rather pleased that ‘Comrade’ Woolas has gone. I’ve also had a think about what we, from the Labour party, might want from a candidate in Oldham.

During this year’s General Election, and the aftermath in this CLP, all attention has been obviously focused on the respective Labour and Lib Dem campaigns. I’d suggest it gets more interesting if you have a look at what the Tories were doing.

Oldham E had been a Lab-Lib marginal since 1997: this year it became a 3-way Lib-Lab-Con marginal. The 3782 votes we lost between 2005 and 2010 didn’t go to the Lib Dems – their vote went down by 295. The Tories gained 3872.

That’s so far ahead of the national swing to them that you have to ask how they did it.

Part of the answer may well relate to their choice of candidate: For the first time in this area, the Conservatives put up an Asian Muslim candidate in the constituency.

The 2001 Census Demographics for the constituency showed that it was 89% white and 11% BME; but these figures have now changed. It is estimated that the BME vote in Oldham East is now closer to 10,000, of which around 9,000 is Asian Muslim (mostly from Azad Kashmir), mainly concentrated in St Mary’s, Alexandra and Waterhead wards.

With a Muslim vote of this size, it is easily arguable that Conservatives will win the forthcoming by-election, particularly if there is a high turnout of BME voters and a low general turnout. This is exactly what happened most recently in Tower Hamlets.

In short, we cannot win unless we exorcise the ghost of a previous Labour campaign that many would call racist.

We need a candidate who can engage with BME voters and the BME media and who is used to dealing with a diverse community.

David Ottewell at the Manchester Evening News, who has similar thoughts, has put forward some names:

I’m sure the Labour party in Oldham will have names in the frame already. But one man who springs to mind is Afzal Khan, the former lord mayor of Manchester. He’s someone who transcends traditional boundaries and is a canny political operator, too. If he wants it, he might just win.

Other potential candidates? Coun Khan’s, daughter, Maryam – who put in a creditable against-the-odds performance in losing Bury North in May. And Lucy Powell, whose stock continues to rise despite the fact she failed to take Manchester Withington from the Lib Dems. She played an important role in Ed Miliband’s Labour leadership victory, too.

We certainly should not select someone simply on the basis of the demographic boxes they tick, but we also cannot ignore changes. We need an extremely skilled and experienced campaigner and media performer to reflect all of Oldham, not just the traditional Labour base.

If we can find someone to do all that, not only will we win the forthcoming by-election but Oldham East & Saddleworth might just have a better MP than it’s had in a while.

—-
This post is written by a Labour activist from the area who wishes to remain anonymous


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Reader comments


Hmmm. I defer to you if you’re from the area, but wasn’t it generally perceived that Woolas could rely on a significant proportion of the Asian vote, which is why he was expending so much effort on courting the ‘angry white’ (swing) voters?

Sorry, but I think this article has demonstrated some more work needs to be done to fully excersise the ghost of Woolas. First of all you need to recognise that Woolas’ campaign was not one “that many would call racist” – it was racist. Bad choice of words.

Secondly assuming that the BME vote is a block vote for whichever candidate is muslim is really rather patronising. Again, poor choice of words – “With a Muslim vote of this size”.

The above article seems to illustrate that rather than court the ‘white sun vote’, you’ve decided to aim for the ‘muslim vote’ instead. Woolas with a minus sign.

How about you pick the best candidate for the job, and run a positve campaign that focuses on why he/she is going to be able to advance the interests of all residents in the area?

Mr S. Pill

I would suggest that the leaflet your link highlights sums up why the Lib Dems look dead as an electoral force.

It seems to be saying “only we can kick Labour” – which is fine when Labour are in power. But when it is the Lib Dems and Tories making people unemployed, cutting pensions, and so on – it rings a little hollow.

It may work in this instance to some extent because of the rather unique situation the Oldham campaign has thrown up.

But Labour will surely have their candidate stand on a “VAT going up – school cuts – police cuts – housing support cuts – etc” attack – which will hit the Lib Dems hard.

And that in turn may make the Tories plausible winners.

Simon,

Statistics from the election actually show this isn’t true – Woolas lost a huge proportion of the Asian vote between 2005 and 2010 (We lost 3000 voters, our demographic completely changed), and it would only have slipped if he’d remained in office, since the leaflets are incredibly likely to have been targeted. The amount of show they’ve been given in the public eye will have lost us a huge number of Asian voters.

I was out in Oldham on Sunday on the doorstep, and the thing we kept hearing was that the difference between a white and an Asian candidate could equal up to 2000 votes.

I personally think the most important thing that having an Asian candidate would do is send out a very powerful message; This is not a racist party. After being the traditional home of BAME voters for so long, we have slipped in our standards – we have a scarily low number of BAME MPs and have the potential of losing a massive number of voters if we lose our position as that. I think we need to get across in Oldham – and the whole country – that we care very much about the Asian community and this sort of behaviour and terrible vote pandering has no place in our party.

I personally think the most important thing that having an Asian candidate would do is send out a very powerful message; This is not a racist party.

Now let’s test that by a simple 2 word substitution:

I personally think the most important thing that having a White candidate would do is send out a very powerful message; This is not a racist party.

Doesn’t work, does it?

7. Baying Lynch Mob

@Jay [6]

Of course your 2-word substitution doesn’t work. You’ve ignored lots of context.

Meanwhile.

Labour MPs are in mutinous mood over ‘Hands on Hattie’s’ treatment of Woolas and are forming a lynch mob for her.

(Like I care, before you ask)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11719438

9. Mike Killingworth

[5] Kate, I’m going to make two assumptions about you, so please holler if either of them are wrong.

The first is that you’re white, and the second is that you are a Labour activist because you believe in the left/right paradigm of class politics.

The unpleasant truth for the likes of you and I is that, given the choice between voting their class or voting their race, most people will vote their race. That is to say, that whilst there may be a widespread desire for greater fairness/equality in society, it is also a very weak desire in most cases, easily overridden by some other imperative – in this case racial solidarity. (Or, as in Northern Ireland, confessional solidarity.)

[9] Mike, your assumptions about me aren’t wrong but I still have a belief that your beliefs about the electorate are somewhat pessimistic. I think an example would be the Muslim Party – if people voted solely with religious or racial ties, they would’ve got many, many more votes than the 400 they secured in Birmingham Ladywood this time round.

I am genuinely of the opinion that the voters will vote with what they feel is right – when we were speaking to voters on Saturday, we spoke to lots who were disgusted with Woolas’s actions. Those aren’t the kind of people who are going to turn around and vote for someone based on their race. I think more often than not people vote with the party they support nationally, and the party that is most visible in their community. The candidate in many cases is neither here nor there. The selection of an Asian candidate in OES would be more of a clear indication to the Asian voters of the area that we respect them – as Woolas and his campaign materials seemed to say the opposite.

11. Mike Killingworth

[10] Maybe I am pessimistic, Katey, but I call in evidence the sources of political cleavage in the world’s biggest democracy – India. Class is well down the pecking order.

And a word of advice: voters who are willing to speak to political activists on Saturdays are atypical – it’s the action of someone who is far more interested in politics than average and who probably has at some time or other at least contemplated joining a political party. And most people would rather mutilate themselves than do that…

“The selection of an Asian candidate in OES would be more of a clear indication to the Asian voters of the area that we respect them”

There’s no danger that it might come across as patronising tokenism then?

planeshift, you say: How about you pick the best candidate for the job, and run a positve campaign that focuses on why he/she is going to be able to advance the interests of all residents in the area?

That is exactly what the second-last paragraph says.

14. Mole in a Hole

A new candidate was selected on Wednesday 3rd November – before the Woolas verdict was publically released.

15. Ben Singleton

The candidate that is willing to knock on the most doors is probably going to be the best one in my book. Preferably, but not necessarily from Oldham (but surely at least from the North-West or has spent a long time in the North West).

Also, someone who doesn’t believe the only way to win is through mindless triangulation would be good too.

@3 Planeshift: First of all you need to recognise that Woolas’ campaign was not one “that many would call racist” – it was racist.

I disagree. While Woolas’ campaign was both dishonest and bigotted, it wasn’t pandering to racial prejudice, but to anti-Muslim prejudice, which is a different thing (that fact that some racist bigots are also anti-Muslim bigots is neither here nor there).

“I personally think the most important thing that having an Asian candidate would do is send out a very powerful message; This is not a racist party.”

Of course it’s a racist party.

If it wasn’t you wouldn’t be engaged in this BNPesque search for a brown skinned human shield.

@Chervil

“Of course it’s a racist party.”

Yeh, because Labour never passed anti-race hate, racial equality laws. FFS.

“If it wasn’t you wouldn’t be engaged in this BNPesque search for a brown skinned human shield.”

LOL, BNPesque wtf? The BNP wouldn’t even let a brown person join their party let alone put one up as a candidate.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    Why Conservatives could win Phil Woolas' seat http://bit.ly/bOuANT

  2. Katharine S Russell

    http://bit.ly/a664ic – Fantastic Liberal Conspiracy article on the type of campaign and candidate we need in Oldham East.

  3. Dagney Johnson

    RT @calamitykate – http://bit.ly/a664ic – Fantastic Liberal Conspiracy article on the type of campaign and candidate we need in Oldham East.

  4. sunny hundal

    Tories could win Woolas’ seat unless Labour understands how Oldham has changed says local activist http://bit.ly/bOuANT

  5. 1st Ethical CT

    RT @sunny_hundal: Tories could win Woolas’ seat unless Labour understands how Oldham has changed says local activist http://bit.ly/bOuANT

  6. Tom Scholes-Fogg

    Interesting article about OES, http://bit.ly/a664ic I'm going for thr two Khan's. Can't see Powell going for it!

  7. Get Political Fund » Blog Archive » Why Conservatives could win Phil Woolas' seat | Liberal Conspiracy

    [...] Link: Why Conservatives could win Phil Woolas' seat | Liberal Conspiracy [...]





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