London’s increasing debt: what will Boris do about it?
The Mayor put on an upbeat performance on Wednesday by claiming that the cuts could have been worse and London had benefited as a result of Crossrail and the tube upgrades being protected.
The reality is that Transport for London (TfL) is facing the same cut in its grant as the rest of the country, with the significant exception of £890m ring fenced for the tube upgrade.
However, Londoners have been given the green light to continue its previous plans to go massively into debt in order to pay for Crossrail and the tube upgrades.
Londoners only started getting in to debt for transport in 2005 with the creation of the tube PPP, but as I discovered from my analysis of TfL’s figures earlier this year, a London Mayor could be spending £350m per annum on interest and repayments by 2017/18 before they have a chance to do anything else.
To put that into perspective, £350m is roughly the cost of cycle hire for six years, the planned expansion of cycle hire and all twelve of the cycling superhighways, put together.
What was even more worrying was the way the graph of TfL debt carried on growing to over £500m per year during the following decade.
Now, these figures will undoubtedly have changed for the better. The Government and TfL have thankfully knocked a billion pounds off the Crossrail bill and hopefully the tube upgrades won’t be as costly now that comrade Boris has nationalised Metronet.
The big problem for anyone who can still afford the housing costs of living in London in five years time is that the Government’s annual transport grant will have shrunk by 21% in real terms.
Londoners will have started paying for our debt, but there will be less Government money to cover the cost of the interest & repayments.
Whilst the Mayor managed to persuade many in the media that the Government’s transport settlement was a real victory, the reality in your local area will be fare rises, plus cuts to road safety, cuts to cycling in outer London and no end to pot holes.
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This is a guest post. Jenny Jones is a London Assembly Member, representing the Green Party. She is also leader of the Green Group and Chair of the Planning and Housing Committee.
· Other posts by Jenny Jones AM
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Reader comments
My word, that is a shock horror story, isn’t it?
You mean if you borrow money to do infrastructure upgrades, you have to pay it back?
Whatever will they think of next?
So debt at a London level needs to be dealt with, but at a national level you can just continue borrowing and printing money to fund magical green projects?
Isn’t this the same Jenny Jones who defended “Sir” Ian Blair, the man responsible for the death of Jean Charles de Menezes?
Blanco, the difference is that the London Mayor has extremely limited tax-raising powers, so he has very little control over the overall size of his/her budgets. Mayors take what they’re given and top it up with revenue from transport fares and a little bit from the council tax precept.
The Mayor also no powers over tax raising/avoidance/evasion and all the other measures that a government could use to address a deficit.
The point to note from Jenny’s article is that London hasn’t really got off any more lightly by keeping Crossrail and the Tube upgrades… we’ve just retained the ability to borrow.
You also have to add the Olympics debt – remember Ken and his ‘Walnut whip’ addition to our council tax bills. Along with the large increase in bills from Thames Water to pay for the desalination plant, super sewer and the massive reservoir they are hoping to build in Oxfordshire. Some of these may be seen as necessary projects, whilst others should be opposed, i.e. the reservoir would be unnecessary if we took water conservation more seriously and hurried up the leaky pipes fixing. However, the key point is that the transfer of debt from national level to regional level tends to be a regressive measure at the moment as income tax is based upon how much you earn, but council tax is less so.
A similar principle applies to the privatised utility companies loading investment debt onto bills rather than the government carrying it. The nuclear supplement on electricity bills in the 1990s is a classic example of this approach. Government requires the utility companies to invest in the infrastructure but we nearly all pay a flat rate contribution via our bills, rather than a fairer contribution via our income tax.
A system of regional income tax is going to be a key demand for Londoners in the future, if this debt repayment continues to be loaded onto council tax bills and bus fares.
You mean if you borrow money to do infrastructure upgrades, you have to pay it back?
Whatever will they think of next?
Bizarre – you seem to have a lot of objections when the Labour govt wanted to do that, but no problems if a Tory mayor does it.
Actually, not so bizarre that, is it?
“Bizarre – you seem to have a lot of objections when the Labour govt wanted to do that, but no problems if a Tory mayor does it.
Actually, not so bizarre that, is it?”
If the Government were to act in the best interests of the country, then there would have been no objections…however we know all too well that Brown was more interested in acting in the narrowly sectarian interests of the Labour Party – hence those aircraft-carrier contracts.
Just a second Jenny do you oppose cross rail or do you oppose financing projects through debt. If you don’t oppose cross rail, can you imagine circumstances in which financing through debt might be cheaper than through current income- if so could you argue why this isn’t one of those case rather than just shouting about the fact that we have to pay interest on any debts we accrue.
Running a deficit like that – how irresponsible!
He should cut it at once.
The major plus about Boris’s London plans is that he’s not cutting back on long-term infrastructure investment. Fare rises can be reversed with a few months’ notice when politics swings back to the left, as can minor maintenance things like potholes in the road, but infrastructure projects take 15 years. I’m not normally a Bozzer fan, but all credit to him for taking the right approach, opting for short-term pain rather than long-term mutilation.
(also note that Tube ridership exceeded estimates last year. In that context, putting up fares isn’t a terrible thing – people clearly aren’t being deterred by current fare levels, despite the economy).
But hang on – I thought that large scale deficit spending was absolutely vital to maintain economic growth? Isn’t doing anything at all to reduce overspend grossly irresponsible?
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- Liberal Conspiracy
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- oneil
London's increasing debt: what will Boris do about it? | Liberal …: Londoners only started getting in to debt fo… http://bit.ly/cAWYyo
- George Hutchings
London's increasing debt: what will Boris do about it? | Liberal … http://bit.ly/9C1RCE
- Naadir Jeewa
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- Gavin Duff
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- Pucci Dellanno
RT @libcon: London's increasing debt: what will Boris do about it? http://bit.ly/dsPxoI
- Bob Wiley
London's increasing debt: what will Boris do about it? | Liberal …: by Jenny Jones AM October 24, 2010 at 9:55 a… http://bit.ly/90MRX8
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