Bad news today shows consumer confidence is still a big problem
Bad news about household consumption in the monthly consumer confidence poll and house price data released today.
The GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence Index fell slightly, to minus 20, from minus 18 in August (and minus 16 in September 2009).
- The index for how people felt their personal financial situation had changed over the previous 12 months fell to minus 5, from minus 3 last month (and plus 5 in September 2009).
- The index for how they judged the general economic situation over the next 12 months fell to minus 19 from minus 14 last month (and plus 4 in September 2009).
Consumer confidence is a rather volatile economic indicator, but these figures do suggest that consumers are worried both about the state of the economy and their personal position.
The latest results for the Nationwide House Price Index also made depressing reading. The index rose slightly compared with the previous month, but the three month on three month rate of change (which Nationwide describe as “a good indicator of the near term price trend”) fell from 0.0 per cent in August to min us 0.9 per cent.
It’s a sign of how starved we are for good numbers that the Financial Times reported (paywall) the fact that we have stagnation instead of an outright fall as good news.
Martin Gahbauer, the Nationwide’s Chief Economist predicted that employment changes would play an important part in determining the future direction of the housing market:
Given the combination of a still elevated unemployment rate and the upcoming public sector wage freezes, it seems unlikely that earnings growth will accelerate much in the near future. While this will continue to help companies limit job losses, it will also continue to constrain confidence in future incomes among potential homebuyers.
The Nationwide and the GfK/NOP indices are both pointing in the same direction – depressed consumer confidence.
Household demand is falling at the same time as public spending – the coalition had better pray that the cuts really do “crowd in” business investment, because that is their only hope.
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Richard is an regular contributor. He is the TUC’s Senior Policy Officer covering social security, tax credits and labour market issues.
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Reader comments
Oh dear, and it was only the other day the tory trolls where on here jerking off to the IMF report. The IMF loves welfare cuts, so it was hardly a shock that they approve of austerity measures, just as long as the rich elites are not suffering.
It seems confidence is falling. Not really surprising when we have a govt of the rich for the rich. So no wonder people are getting a little worried. Still, I’m sure Call me ‘Middle class’ Dave, and Pip Squeak think they know what they are doing………
Please could you explain why falling house prices are a ‘bad thing’ for the country, and for the ‘workers’ in particular.
@2. Thomas Hobbes: “Please could you explain why falling house prices are a ‘bad thing’ for the country, and for the ‘workers’ in particular.”
House prices are about the same as they were six months ago. Ignore the monthly figures because the sample size is too small at the moment.
Lower house prices and rental costs are good for workers. The only ethical way to achieve this is to build more homes; the unethical solutions are genocide or deportation.
But house prices are important to all of us, even if we do not wish to sell or buy. Given that the UK effectively imposes a cap on the total number of homes, selling prices are relatively unaffected by new build; selling price is determined by buyer confidence. Selling prices signal whether Jo Public thinks it is the right time to borrow.
“The latest results for the Nationwide House Price Index also made depressing reading.”
Exactly what planet do you people live on ?
Median wage – 25K
Average house price – around 160K – more than 6 times median wage. And apparently it’s a good thing if they rise ?
Exactly how is someone, perhaps burdened with 25K of debt after uni, going to save the 50K or so they’ll need for a deposit on that house, with a loan of 4x earnings (the interest on which may prove unpayable when rates rise)?
The story of the last 30 years is the story of inflation being kept down by a combination of mass immigration depressing bottom-end wages while the Chinese productivity miracle kept High Street goods cheap. Meanwhile, cheap and easy credit fuelled the property asset bubble, and the failure of the ‘trickle-down’ theory inflated property even more, as the City bonuses and massively increased director salaries went into houses and land rather than engineering start-ups.
And you really think this is a GOOD thing ?
Adding to the chorus here. The only depressing thing about the house price numbers today is that they were up, not down like they need to be.
Re; The IMF
Intresting article in the Telegraph, of all places
“The IMF itself has become the problem as Europe’s woes return
Once a quorum of big names says the game is up in a debt crisis, events move fast and furiously”
“.Let us be honest, the Fund has become a font of incoherence, an engine of moral hazard. In August, it abolished its credit ceiling and created a new tool to rush fresh debt to states that need more debt like a hole in the head.”
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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