London media rig poll to boost Boris


by Don Paskini    
September 20, 2010 at 5:06 pm

The Evening Standard, LBC radio and London Tonight have just commissioned an opinion poll about who Londoners think should be the next Mayor of London.

Normally in voting intention polls, the question about who to vote for is done first, in order to get an accurate indication of who people plan to support, and then followed by questions about specific issues.

Instead, the Evening Standard poll started by asking people about Tube Strikes and Boris Johnson’s proposals to make it harder to strike, then a couple of questions about the Liberal Democrats.

And then it asked whether people agreed with Boris that London should be protected from cuts, and only then asked about voting intention, giving the options of Boris Johnson, Ken Livingstone or Oona King.

Unsurprisingly, having reminded people of two of Boris’ most popular policies before asking people who they plan to vote for (and giving a choice of two different opponents to split the main opposition party vote), they found that 45% supported Boris, 27% Ken and 9% Oona, with 19% choosing “none of these”.

This poll is worthless as a record of who Londoners plan to vote for – except that it shows that Ken is a stronger candidate than Oona.

But if Boris Johnson was really ahead of Ken Livingstone in his bid for re-election, his media cheerleaders wouldn’t need to spend their money on dodgy opinion polls.

The fact that, nearly two years before the election, they are trying to use dodgy stats to suggest Boris is winning is a sign of panic, not strength.


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About the author
Don Paskini is deputy-editor of LC. He also blogs at donpaskini. He is on twitter as @donpaskini
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Reader comments


Will be interesting to see whether the Standard will near-bankrupt itself again supporting Boris this time round. It lost a huge amount of its readership over it last time – lost a fortune in sales and advertising revenue – and only saved itself by making itself free and running a big poster campaign saying sorry.

I bet it makes the same “mistake” again.

The technique described is called ‘Priming.’ In the political lexis, it is ‘Push Polling.’ George W. Bush used the technique in 2000 when trying to beat McCain for the GOP nomination.
I think from now on we can completely discount any Comres poll. And, just ignore anything Iain Dale says or writes.

“This poll is worthless…” except where it says something i agree with about Ken.

Indeed.

Without the evil Standard, Gollum would still have his precious.

Evil, evil Standard.

Could be of course that only elements of the left support Ken, and the rest of London remembers the disaster he was as mayor last time round, or (as my parents, who used to work for him) at the GLC which was also a shambles, making Boris a very viable alternative.

Bless him, he single-handedly turned my ex-communist parents Tory. Quite an achievement.

Real @3: you’re missing the point. The spin on the poll has been added specifically to make Boris look better than the other two – there’s nothing (in the description of the poll, at least) to indicate that the pollsters have any preference for Ken Livingston over Oona King. So unless you’re suggesting that Oona’s supporters are disproportionately likely to fall for push-polling, you’re led to the conclusion that Ken’s more popular.

All anti-boris/anti-ken whingeing aside, it really is a biased and worthless poll from the point of view of good statistical practice.

Gwyn – that is entirely the point and I’m fairly sure everyone knows that even if it agrees with their view on something.

Polls with leading or slanted questions tend to give misleading or slanted results. I’m delighted to see that Liberal Conspiracy has finally realised this, and can only hope that this new analytical approach will also apply when more polls come out about whether the public are in favour of savage immediate cuts.

Re: 8

You really think everyone knows that?

Gwyn

I’m an optimist. I have to believe they can all see how warped the poll is.

Evil, evil Standard.M

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2807

Oh dear…


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    London media rig poll to boost Boris http://bit.ly/cP0SRA

  2. Don Paskini

    RT @libcon: London media rig poll to boost Boris http://bit.ly/cP0SRA

  3. 5 Chinese Crackers

    RT @libcon: London media rig poll to boost Boris http://bit.ly/cP0SRA

  4. Dan West

    RT @libcon: London media rig poll to boost Boris http://bit.ly/cP0SRA

  5. Media Feed

    RT @libcon: London media rig poll to boost Boris http://bit.ly/cP0SRA

  6. Dilwyn’s Daily Digest – Tuesday 21st September 2010 « Aled-Dilwyn Fisher

    [...] Liberal Conspiracy shows that the way the poll was rigged means that Ken and Labour may have even more cause for [...]

  7. Why the London Mayor race might be harder for Ken than expected | Liberal Conspiracy

    [...] Paskini has already pointed out that the poll yesterday by the Evening Standard and LBC was flawed. Nevertheless, I don’t think it [...]

  8. andrew

    London media rig poll to boost Boris | Liberal Conspiracy: Liberal Conspiracy · Home · Westminster Unions Media Ac… http://bit.ly/bs8y1L

  9. Tom Miller

    *Sigh* OK, @standardnews poll which came out against Laobur mayoral candidates was a 'push poll'. http://tinyurl.com/3236eek

  10. Thomas Williams

    @adebradley The Standard poll was a push-poll. Utterly discredited. http://is.gd/fn8F9





  • We have a tight comments policy aimed at fostering constructive debate.
  • We believe in free speech but not your right to abuse our space.
  • Abusive, sarcastic or silly comments may be deleted.
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  • Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy.

 
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