There has been a sharp increase in Labour party membership – around 32,000 people have joined the party since May.

Estimates of total membership suggest this is between 160,000 and 170,000, though the number of ballots to be issued remains open until September 8th, since anybody who joins the party before then can vote in the election.

So new members now make up a striking 19% to 20% of the party membership, and so over 6% of the whole electoral college. They are also slightly more likely to vote, both because some have joined specifically to vote, and more prosaically because a small proportion of long-standing direct debit members would not have updated their current address details.

So could they decide the election? The answer, in principle, is yes.

Imagine that small leads for each of the final two candidates in the Parliamentary and affiliate sections were to cancel each other out almost exactly.

That would make the members’ vote decisive. Lets say older members cast votes in the final round which favour candidate A over candidate B by 51-49% in the final ballot. But a 60-40 split among new members for candidate B would be enough in such a close scenario as this, where everything else comes out almost even.

So might new members might split differently from existing members? There are reasons to think that they might, though it would be dangerous to overstate these.

A plausible hypothesis is that new members may be more likely to vote for candidates they perceive as representing “change” rather than “continuity”. Existing members may be more likely to heed warnings – such as those from Peter Mandelson – about the risks of change from the New Labour script.

Every candidate argues they are the leader most likely to defeat the government and get back to power. If new members have been fired up by the Coalition, then they might particularly warm to Ed Balls’ combative opposition to the government, for example. Overall, new members are likely to be as interested in Labour defeating the Tories as the rest of the membership.

There isn’t enough information on who the new members are to provide any definitive verdict of how similar or different there are. The media have been interested in the idea that these are LibDem defectors, which is probably overstated. There probably are a good number of ex-party members in the joiners cohort – either because they left over a specific issue, or became disillusioned, or just felt less politically engaged – along with “never members” who are broadly Labour but stayed out for similar reasons.

However, the YouGov poll also shows that existing members are also to the left of voters generally, and Labour voters too, perhaps also reflected in views about why Labour lost, so this may not differentiate new and existing members as sharply as some may imply.

And those who were broadly Labour but somewhat disillusioned with the party in power will not be the only joiners.

There has long been a very large pool of Labour identifiers and supporters who are not members: the Fabian Society Facing Out research identified a pool of 2.5 million non-members who are politically engaged outside the party and who are Labour identifiers, identifying the need to lower barriers to entry to party politics and to ensure members voices counts .

Clearly, new members won’t decide the election against the strong preference of other members. But their voices will have an important weight and influence – and it could be decisive in an evenly balanced contest.

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This a shorter version of an article at Next Left

Reader comments

1. Liberal Conspiracy

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2. Tam Chandler

   RT @libcon: Could new Labour members help Ed Miliband win? http://bit.ly/boHyXV

3. Naadir Jeewa

   Reading: Could new Labour members help Ed Miliband win?: There has been a sharp increase in Labour party membershi… http://bit.ly/bczj9O

4. Soho Politico

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5. sunny hundal

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6. Jon Lockwood

   A better headline may have been "Lots of new members who no one knows much about may somehow effect Leadership" http://bit.ly/boHyXV