Can we expect Nick Clegg and the Tory blogosphere to now add the CEBR to the list of “partial” sources?

With respect to Owen James, the economist quoted in the BBC story, there is no backup to the doom statistics. Was it based on any accepted model of the UK economy? The CEBR (story source) don’t have any links on their front page. Who knows.

We are told (with exceptional perspicacity): “The CEBR blamed expected huge cuts to public sector jobs.”

Adopting equal perception, I can predict that a similar number of jobs will be lost in organisations that provide government services. Where do I queue up at the broadcasting organisation of your choice to earn my £50 sub contradicting the CEBR?

Other than presumably a press release to the BBC there does not seem to be a CEBR report. Unemployment over 10% does seem to be extraordinarily large. However, it looks like they are saying this will be the rate in some regions rather than nationally. Therefore, the headline is a bit misleading.

CEBR just a few weeks ago said there would be no double dip in the UK housing market. Moreover, anyone expecting a double dip misunderstood the fundamentals of the market. Probably true, but how does this square with their 10% unemployment forecast? They have a history of weird forecasts. For example, just last year they forecast that the Australian economy nominal GDP would surpass the UK within 5 years. Since, Australia only has a third of the size of the UK labour force this would seem to put it mildly unlikely. They also forecast last December that sterling vis-a-vis the euro would be below parity by now. Just over 20 odd per cent out is a massive forecasting error.

Some economic think tank was predicting the other day that inflation would be over 8% in a few years.

I’m pretty sure that a number of others have predicted that inflation will be modest, small, negative, or not at all.

Economic think tanks appear to exist for no other purpose than to lend ‘credence’ to various agendas – I therefore trust them even less than politicians.

There are think-tanks and think-tanks. HM Treasury publishes a regular monthly survey of some three dozen leading independent forecasts for the UK economy so those interested can compare the range of forecast outcomes.

This is the survey for August:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/201008forcomp.pdf

How about we have some regional tax rates? Set up a business in Wales or the North, pay only 10% corporation tax for the first five years – or something like that.

Mark M,

Well, if we relaxed central control and let local authorities set tax rates to fund their own services we could do that. And that is probably not a bad idea overall.

We are over-populated. End of story. Parent/s who blithely produce three or four or more children and then expect everything from a university place to a job, laid on, will be disappointed. You only have to read Births and Obituaries to see how incontinent people have been and continue to be. As if there is no tomorrow…

Not politically correct, and not a vote winner, but it’s true. As generations are added to and not replaced, this, unfortunately, is the legacy.