New report predicts more job losses


by Newswire    
August 9, 2010 at 10:00 am

Recovery in the jobs market will “stall” this year as demand for workers in the public sector falls, new research has warned.

According to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), a third of employers expect to cut jobs in the next three months.

The public sector employers in particular are planning cuts, with 36% of them looking to lose staff. The size of the cuts being considered has also increased, the CIPD said.

Across all sectors employers are expecting to make an average of 5.5% of their workforces redundant, the survey of 600 companies suggests, up from the 3.6% average cut being considered three months ago.

He added that a rise in unemployment over the medium term was now on the cards.

…more at the BBC


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Concerns about the fragility of the recovery from the global financial crisis extend to the other side of the Atlantic:
http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/article/70729

And the recent bounce of the construction industry here is fading:

“The recent bounce back in the building trade has slipped sharply, according to the latest survey of the sector by the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/building-trade-faces-double-dip-next-year-2042431.html

According to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), a third of employers expect to cut jobs in the next three months.

The public sector employers in particular are planning cuts, with 36% of them looking to lose staff. The size of the cuts being considered has also increased, the CIPD said.

So a third of employers, and basically a third of public sector employers (36% is less than 3% higher than a third, which may well be within the margin of error for this survey) are expecting to cut jobs. Two questions arise:

1. What is the ‘normal’ or ‘background’ rate expecting to cut jobs?
2. What is the percentage expecting to recruit?

I note also that you managed to cut the more positive figures from the original story, so let me helpfully repost them (I am not sure they are good for the government, but they are better than the excerpts posted above):

Despite the threat of cuts, the CIPD’s net employment index, which measures the number of companies planning to hire against the number planning to lose staff, is still in positive territory at +two, down from +five three months ago.

But the difference between the public and private sectors is stark. For the private sector alone, the index shows strong hiring intentions at +19 while in the public sector, the index gives a reading of -35.

Never mind the tea leaf reading, this report about current state of the house market from the Press Association in the Indy is a worrying sign of the times:

“Property professionals saw house prices fall for the first time in a year last month and expect further declines as demand weakens, according to research today.

“The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said 8% more of its members reported a fall than a rise in property prices in July – the first time the survey indicated a fall since July 2009.

“Rics said the fall came as supply outstripped demand, with a decrease in buyer numbers for the second month in a row while more sellers flooded on to the market.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-as-demand-weakens-2048427.html

Good news update:

“Exports rose at four times the pace of imports in June, leaving the trade in goods deficit at a smaller than expected £7.4bn”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/10/uk-trade-deficit-narrows-as-exports-recover


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