Companies: we can’t create so many new jobs
Some of Britain’s fastest growing companies have questioned Government claims that the private sector will hire people made redundant from the public sector or encouraged to work through reform of the benefits system.
George Osborne, the Chancellor, has said that the pain of public spending cuts can be eased by a revitalised private sector but many of those companies contacted by Your Business said this was unlikely in the short term.
…
Mr Walker said George Osborne’s decision to mitigate the impact of the planned increase in national insurance contributions next April was welcome, but he did not see anything more that stimulated private sector recruitment.
Colin Ellis, chief economist at the British Venture Capital Association, said that private equity-backed companies were unlikely to create mass employment in the short term. “There’s a massive amount of uncertainty around the outlook for the economy,” he said.
Update
Those views were also echoed last night John Philpott, chief economist at the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development:
There is not a hope in hell’s chance of this happening [the creation of 2.5m new jobs]. There would have to be extraordinarily strong private sector employment growth in a … much less conducive economic environment than it was during the boom.
Anthony Painter points out that job creation wasn’t even that high during the boom years:
Let’s take 1999-2007- pre-credit crunch/ recession and boom time. In that time the UK private sector economy only created 1,520,000 private sector jobs. So what hope is there that it will create 2.5million by 2015 in a period of slow growth, fiscal consolidation, potentially rising interest rates, and while the European economy is stagnant? Not very high would be my guess. This is a Budget that will not create jobs at the very best.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments
3) To make their case for these ideological spending cuts, the Conservatives deliberately talked down the economy. The Office for Budget Responsibility later pointed out that the economy was not in the dire straits Osborne was pretending it was in.
I don’t know about everybody else, but I’m finding it hard to keep track of who’s talking down the economy to what end
So will we now see all the Tory trolls who spent last night and this morning naysaying the Guardian scoop similarly describe the Telegraph as some blinkered, biased left-wing rag?
In the long run public sector expansion can crowd out private sector growth by taking in a lot of well educated staff and by providing services that the private sector might otherwise expand into.
But the private sector is unlikely to expand health, education, policing, social services, national defence, and so on when the gap is left by collapsing state services. And because we are talking about a very rapid shedding in the public sector, another problem arises.
The biggest problem with this sort of shock-doctrine slashing is that it leads to massive instability in services, in the economy, and in the expectations of consumers, banks and entrepreneurs alike.
If the Tories really believed in the private sector – they would be talking about a gradual scaling back of public sector employment instead of a five year splurge.
But what they really believe is that the damage to the country and economy is a price worth paying for lower taxes.
Are reductions (2010-11 and subsequent years) along the following lines not gradual enough?
Hardly anything happens for three years!
-0.1%, -1.2%, -1.3%, -3.0%, -3.7%, -2.4%
http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/d/employment_forecast_300610.pdf
Ironically, when the US staged these sorts of budget cuts in the ’90s, one of the boom areas for employment was the penal system. This, however, looks very unlikely given the scaling-back of announced by Ken Clarke today.
The other area was private security and this certainly has potential given the forthcoming cuts to the police.
Anyway, slow or no growth simply means less jobs not more – I don’t care what the OBR say or the sickly slasher brothers have to say about it.
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
- Conservative contradictions on crime and punishment « Though Cowards Flinch
[...] plans to slash the State sector to ribbons proceeding apace – and private sector investment not yet prepared to pick up the slack – education won’t stop a slide to [...]
- Liberal Conspiracy
Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- sunny hundal
Osborne’s plans to conjure 2.5m jobs out of thin air falter as companies say they can't: http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- yorkierosie
RT @libcon: Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- Shantelle
RT @libcon Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/9rxeJr
- paulstpancras
RT @libcon Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/9rxeJr
- paulstpancras
RT @libcon Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/9rxeJr
- sunny hundal
@rogthornhill @CharlotteGore heh. The bigger joke is that you people expect 2.5m jobs to be created http://bit.ly/9rxeJr
- David O'Keefe
RT @libcon: Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- Huw Irranca-Davies
RT @libcon: Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- Colette Harris
RT @libcon: Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- Conservative contradictions on crime and punishment | Liberal Conspiracy
[...] Tory plans to slash the State sector to ribbons proceeding apace – and private sector investment not yet prepared to pick up the slack – education won’t stop a slide to [...]
- Tara B
RT @sunny_hundal Osborne’s plans to conjure 2.5m jobs out of thin air falter as companies say they can't: http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- LCW
RT @libcon: Osborne’s plans falter; companies say they can’t create so many new jobs http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
- Laura
RT @sunny_hundal: Osborne’s plans to conjure 2.5m jobs out of thin air falter as companies say they can't: http://bit.ly/dh8W4u
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