Strangely I think with polls being the way they are the weather could play a big part in the result,sunny more floating voters would tend to vote,a nice evening a stroll maybe a pint make an evening of it sounds nice,sod it I think it;s going to rain.

“We have to resist the Tory coup as much as possible.”

And how do you suggest we do that?

I’m a pessimist, so I assume that the Tories will sneak a small majority, with Ashcroft’s wealth exaggerating the swing in the marginals and with the centre-left vote split as in 1983. But if they don’t get a majority, I really want to see Labour (not Gordon Brown) talking seriously to Nick Clegg and offering really substantial compromise to get a centre-left unity government, with Vince Cable as Chancellor and Nick Clegg as Home Secretary if not PM.

Looking at the constant deviations in the polls, this election is just going to be too tight to call accurately one way or the other.

I too agree that we are unlikely to see the Lib Dem vote hit the 30% mark, which is something I would lament, if there weren’t so many positive things to focus on in terms of what we have achieved, both as a party, and as a body of people at large.

I think that the most likely outcome is that the share of vote will be roughly as follows;

Conservative 34%
Labour 30%
Liberal Democrat 29%
Others 7%

I agree that the uniform swing calculations are useless now, especially considering that I do have a sneaking suspicion that a couple of unexpected seats may change hands tonight.

There are seats that would hitherto be considered safe that are now quietly vulnerable to change, and I would love to see a couple of safe southern Tory seats go yellow, in addition to somewhere like Hull North, Grimsby, or Hull East being wrenched from the clutches of Labour.

The most likely electoral outcome is that Clegg and Labour can form some kind of centre left coalition, listening to the vast majority of people in the UK who reject the egalitarian and grotesquely unfair policies of the Conservatives.

I also think that the loss of Brown as Prime Minister would be a price very much worth paying for that.

As sad as it sounds coming from a Lib Dem, I believe that Alan Johnson would be a preferred leader to Harman, as he has more resonance with voters, and as such would be much more plausible in terms of running a coalition or balanced administration than Harman, who is very divisive.

If a balanced parliament or coalition were to emerge from the smouldering ashes of this rotten parliament, whoever is at the head of it would need to command as much popular confidence as possible, not just in terms of tabliod press, but also in terms of the markets, unions, big business and their own organisations.

Neither Brown or Harman could do that realistically, I suspect.

The top and bottom of it though, is that none of us can say with any certainty what exactly is going to happen tonight.

I for one am living in hope for a conservative calamity in this election, just so I can wait with glee for the headline writers of Cameron’s playmates at The Sun to try and salvage it with a witty and populist headline, kind of in the same way that they have attempted to brainwash the public into believing that David Cameron is somehow more than just another conservative who wants to rule because he believes it is his right.

We need change, but to get it, we have to trust in ourselves, and in the British people.

All we can do now is let them work their magic, and hope that the winds of change truly are blowing our way….

I hope I’m wrong. But I’m starting to fear Nick Clegg peaked a little too early. Let’s see and pray the Tories don’t get an overall majority.

My guess is a Conservative majority, perhaps higher than all expectations, due to the splitting of Labour vote in a large number of seats across England and Wales letting in Conservative (and Liberal Democrat) candidates in unexpected places, especially in areas where Greens, Respect or the BNP or other Labour-voter attracting alternatives exist (Birmingham Hall Green and Brighton Pavillion both look like fun).

Also, the shy Conservative effect may be back in the polls, as it was when the Conservatives were winning – this disappeared more when those who were less happy to admit to Conservative supporters were backing Labour anyway, but may be back now, especially as there are certain people (no-one round here, obviously…) trying to portray the Conservatives as evil, when in reality they are just an alternative group trying to do the right thing (as are all parties, although I think we can say the BNP’s grip of the right thing leaves a lot to be desired). This will tend to put people off saying they support the Conservatives.

Crossposting myself from a couple of days ago

I will stick my neck out and call the national vote share (other than for Plaid and the SNP, I haven’t a clue outside England really) at Com 39, Lab 27, LD 22

Anecdotal reports of heavy polling (at Smithson’s Prep School Dorm) would traditionally suggest that the Tories might not do as well as this, since their supporters tend to vote anyway. However, a little noticed statistic is that YouGov found half the voters against a hung Parliament, with only a sixth in favour and the rest indifferent or “don’t knows”.

It is that I believe which will give Cammo his majority. Just as some Asian communities feel that their interest is better served by voting being organised en bloc by community leaders, so the electorate at large prefers a strong government, unfairly elected to a “fair parliament” of fudges and deals.

Such an outcome also sets the Government up to fail (as it did in 2005 and will again this time). In the absence of ideology – or, more accurately, the adoption of neo-conservative ideology and banker-fetishism by all the main parties – the dominating attitude of the electorate towards politicians under late capitalism is one of resentment.

Perhaps you know the story of the peasant and the angel. The angel appeared to the peasant and offered him a cow, gratis. The peasant said “there’s a catch, there’s always a catch”. The angel admitted that indeed there was, because the peasant’s neighbour would – if the peasant accepted the cow – be blessed by Heaven with two cows. “And if you don’t like that,” the angel continued, “my final offer is to take one cow from you and two from him”. The peasant replied: “that’s a deal!”

It may be better that he get a single-figure majority that will give him no excuse to call a second snap election while his opponents are broke, than that he fall a few seats short. His government will do the same things anyway, and, despite the fragrant Ms Stroud and her ilk, it will have neither the will nor the capacity to restore patriarchy or any other form of sexual conservatism.

Labour remaining largest party but lose majority, Lib Dem get over 80 seats. Lib-Lab coalition agreed in within 10 days and Gordon Brown steps down as Prime Minister. Obviously Dave gets sacked too.

Simples.

Small Tory majority … Greek style riots within 6 months …

[8] No riots. The Greeks have a Communist Party to organise them. We don’t.

My head says:
Tories with a sub 20 seat majority, or a tiny minority where they can form a coalition with the DUP. A double dip recession within the year. The government collapses within 2 years and we’re back doing this again in 2012.

My heart says:
Tories: 246
Labour: 256
Lib Dems: 115
Lab-LD coalition, Brown resigns and Clegg is PM.

I hope my heart is right. What does my head know anyway ….

I’ve made my predictions here http://d-notice.blogspot.com/2010/05/ukelection-predictions.html

Realistically: Tory minority. Lib Dem approx 100 seats

Optimistically: Labour minority & being completely dependant on the Lib Dems who name their price as scrapping ID cards, anti-terror laws, SOCPA and a form of proporional representation

Pessimistically: Tory small majority and working with the UUP and DUP.

My prediction is a wafer thin Tory majority. Labour will hopefully finish third.

Polls underestimating Tory vote again. Tories overall by 40.

The way the rain is bucketing down here I think the term ‘floating voter’ might become literal. Bad weather does tend to weigh against Labour but I’m hoping the Lib Dems do better than you suggest.

The government will win, they always do, they will forget their promises while clinging on to power for as long as they can. Serving themselves and their cronies until they want your vote next time. At which point they will make more promises, slag off the other guy to kingdom come and suck up to the media. What a shame that modern politics cannot openly and honestly discuss the finer details policy or otherwise empower the electorate to make a genuinely informed choice.

What!!!! no no no that last bit should read
What a shame that mainstream politics STILL CANNOT openly and honestly discuss the finer details policy or otherwise empower the electorate to make a genuinely informed choice.

Pessimistically: Tory majority of 55, caused by Labour vote staying at home, Lib Dem vote being spread too thinly across the country and a ’79-style collapse in the extreme-right vote.

Optimistically: Hung parliament with Labour and Lib Dems forming a coalition on condition of Clegg as PM, Cable as Chancellor and full PR (not AV) to be implemented as soon as possible.

Outside chance: Hung parliament with Tory/Lib Dem coalition, Clegg as Foreign Secretary, Cable kept away from the Treasury. No PR, but with Lib Dems actively encouraging defections among New Labour MP (i.e., the idealogical-lite post ’97 careerist ones) in an attempt to supplant Labour as second party. Helped in this regard by outlawing of political donations from organisations, effectively bankrupting Labour and making it all but impossible for a Left/Socialist party to be viable. If successful, Lib Dems never again mention electoral reform.

Needless to say, I’m a pessimistic sod.

After looking at the regionals, and given how the mood of the country has changed (I don’t believe that the “shy Tories” effect is anything like what it was), looking at the amount of undecideds, the surge in registrants, and how both are likely to vote (more to the Lib Dems than the national share otherwise suggests)….I think it’s going to be amazing if the polls have got it right.

That’s not to say they won’t, I just think it’ll be a feat more of a luck than judgement for them to have done so with both pro and anti factors for each party that coun outside the traditional mix of demographics cancel each other out.

Still, I’m going for…

Tories 35%
Lib Dems 29%
Labour 26%
Others 10%

And my seat predictions will be…

Tories 282
Labour 244
Lib Dems 94
Others 12

“I hope I’m wrong. But I’m starting to fear Nick Clegg peaked a little too early. Let’s see and pray the Tories don’t get an overall majority.”

He peaked, and then his party remained fairly stable (though less stable than the other two) at 26-29%. Any kind of rhetoric about Lib Dems sliding is, so far, false. doesn’t mean that people won’t have a last minute conversion away from Lib Dems in the booths of course.

Lib Dems can still also hope for a disproportionate support with undecideds and first time voters who both favour the Lib Dems significantly more than both other parties.

‘Greek style riots within 6 months …’

Fuck no! Have you looked ‘Greek style’ up on the Urban Dictionary?

My prediction is that the tories will win an out right majority of 10 -20 seats. Their vote tends to be under represented by pollsters because many tories are ashamed of admitting their bias. (which you can understand. Who wants to admit they are a brown shirt.)

I can only go by what I have heard anecdotally but Clegg’s amnesty on immigrants has not played very well at all. Some people I know who don’t follow politics very much said to me “he wants to invite them all to stay, Where are they going to live? ……..his house” Their refusal to enter into any tactical voting with Labour means that many Labour supporters will not be tempted to vote for them in Conservative/Tory seats. Much has been made of the tory press and how they are not as powerful as they were. I disagree, and I think their non stop attack against Clegg for 2 weeks has done it’s job.

As for Labour ,they had the chance to get rid of Brown and they refused to do so . Now they must pay the price. Brown has been very selfish in his view that he can win. He was never Prime Minster material, and the fact that he has ended up as a national joke says it all.

We will have an emergency budget very quickly in which the tories will announce that the country is in a far bigger mess than they thought, and so massive spending cuts must be put into place. Cameron will look straight at the camera and say……. “we promised not to do this , but we could not have foreseen how bad things were.” (His nose will grow even longer as we watch.) This will be sold as unavoidable, and will be cheered on by the Right wing press. They will get away with this because by then Labour will be in civil war , and tearing lumps off each other.

Pretty depressing overall, but hey, you never know……….

Popular vote:
CON: 37%
Lab: 28%
Lib: 27%
As from Rob Ford et al.’s pool of the polls.

Share of seats:
Conservative – 321 (Between 315 & 326)
Labour – 199 (Between 194 & 205)
Lib Dem – 101 (Between 96 & 106)
SNP - 5
PC – 3
Other – 3

using this model.

Cameron PM with 300-350 seats. Wide band, but the LD surge, even if it has subsided some, makes predictions difficult and renders UNS useless.

Will be interesting to see if the LDs beat Labour in the popular vote. Think it will be close.

Also, I don’t think Greek style riots are going to happen here, for reasons outlined by Paul Krugman.

But the really big difference is in economic prospects. Britain’s recovery hasn’t been as strong as one would like — but the economy is growing, and since deflation looks unlikely thanks to the floating exchange rate, Britain can expect to see growth of several percent a year in nominal GDP. Greece, on the other hand, is in the euro straitjacket, and is probably condemned to years of depressed activity and deflation; S&P says it won’t regain 2008 nominal GDP until 2017, and that sounds optimistic to me.

To see the implications, imagine for a moment that both Greece and Britain were paying 5 percent on their debt, but that Britain was expecting 3 percent nominal GDP growth, Greece zero. Then Britain would need to run a primary surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio; Greece would have to run a surplus of 5.75.

Wait: there’s more. Britain can expect some “automatic” decline in its primary deficit as the economy recovers; Greece can’t.

And one more thing: Britain can offset the depressing effects of fiscal austerity with loose monetary policy; Greece can’t.

What all this suggests is that while Britain faces a nasty adjustment, it’s within the realm of possibility;

If the Tories make immediate and large spending cuts, this could lead to public sector workers losing their jobs who can’t be absorbed by the private sector. Spending will go down, and this could create a double-dip recession.

Given the Tories ideological predispositions, I assume this is why their endorsement by The Economist & FT was so unenthusiastic.

Sally: “My prediction is that the tories will win an out right majority of 10 -20 seats. Their vote tends to be under represented by pollsters because many tories are ashamed of admitting their bias. (which you can understand. Who wants to admit they are a brown shirt.)”

More like scared to be honest due to intimidation by the left wing thought police

Nick Clegg will be seen near Downing Street: stripped, daubed and screaming “WHAT DO I HAVE TO DO FOR YOU PEOPLE?” Gordon Brown will attempt one of his charmingly inappropriate smiles, and his face will collapse. The Conservatives will start playing Things Can Only Better, and all people of good heart and sound mind will weep.

[24]

“More like scared to be honest due to intimidation by the left wing thought police”

Paranoid much?

If they lack the rudimentary self confidence to even defend their political beliefs, they probably shouldn’t be let out alone, never mind enfranchised.

I disagree profoundly with the whole Conservative ethos, but unless their “honest” beliefs include anything they should be ashamed of, I don’t see why anyone would give any credence to the concept of a left wing thought police cowing the benighted Tories in the shires. It’s about as loopy a theory as believing the Protocols of the Elders of Zion is real.

@25 . LOLz

[plug]
Anyway, if people want to see all the more interesting forecasts, not based on uniform national swing, see my round up here.

I’ll keep it updated.
[/plug]

“More like scared to be honest due to intimidation by the left wing thought police”

What protected little wimps they are then. I mean they only control 80% of the media, and want to destroy the BBC.

What is this thought police you talk about? The Dail Mail? The tory graph? The Sun? The Express? The Times Sky News?

They are ashamed to admit what they are. I would too if I was brownshirt.

I hope all these Libdem numbskulls will get their apologies in early when it turns out that they effectively voted Tory! The only way Thatcher Boy Clegg is going into No. 10 is in Cameron’s back pocket.

[16] I’m unclear whether you yearn for or fear your “outside chance”, CM.

[20] Sounds about right to me.

@30

Fearful. Very fearful! Although I think its unlikely – that would be a massive gamble for the Lib Dems with no guarantee of success.

[31] Phew! Mind you, I think Cameron will be after Lib Dem defections in any case. And if the Parliamentary LD party is little bigger than it was at dissolution, he may well catch one or two fish.

I can think of one particular fish who will wiggling around with his greedy little mouth open desperate to get hold of Cameron’s worm

The Trade Union and Socialist Coalition to make surprising gains from Conservative seats, giving a Lib/Lab government with TUSC as opposition. Rump Tory party will join with UKIP and some retired Col’s to discuss a coup, to be staged in 2014. Monarchy abdicates and retires to Granada. Railways are renationalised and private health/education abolished. Taxes increase to 65% for over £175,000 and tax-free allowance increased to £25,000.

~~~~~~~

Alternatively, Con 34% Lab 27% LD 26%

Brown resigns on Friday. Cameron stays on unless he does worse than expected. Alan Johnson & David Miliband take temporary command of negotiations with LDs, coalition Gov until Nov when there’ll be another election voted using PR/STV/something else.

Y’never know…

It’s a Conservative victory. Brown will struggle to stay on as Labour leader, leading to mass 1980s-style infighting. Tories to reduce the number of seats in Parliament so they can be in power indefinitely. That’s what we get for thirteen wasted years.

@ 26 “If they lack the rudimentary self confidence to even defend their political beliefs, they probably shouldn’t be let out alone, never mind enfranchised”.

But that’s the whole point, why should you have to publicly “defend” your political beliefs in a democracy, like some kind of street level show trial ? Just because lefties like to display their bleeding hearts at every opportunity it doesn’t mean everyone else should.
Why don’t you go the whole hog – anyone who doesn’t share your political views should be disenfranchised, and maybe improsoned, or possibly sent to a gulag, in case they infect anyone else with their anti-government opinions ?

@ 28 “What is this thought police you talk about? The Dail Mail? The tory graph? The Sun? The Express? The Times Sky News?”

Unlike you sally I see the media as largely an irrelevance – if they are so powerfull explian how political movements like republicanism, marxism, fascism managed to be hugely influential largely without any media in the modern sense. The only people who think the media are powerfull are th media themselves.

Leaving that aside the “thought police” are the vast ranks of Nu Lab apparachniks in local and national government. Social workers, probation officers, diversity outreach co-ordinators, health eating advisors, anti smoking tzars, H&S inspectors, “recycling doctors” (yes I’ve met one) etc etc. Most of them should be out of a job by the weekend with a bit of luck.

@37

they are so powerfull explian how political movements like republicanism, marxism, fascism managed to be hugely influential largely without any media in the modern sense.

LOL you have got to be joking. Yeahyeah they didn’t have tabloid redtops or Fox/CNN/Sky etc but you are seriously plain wrong is you don’t think marxism/fascism etc didn’t use the media.

I’ll blame it being election day and let you off

I suspect single figure tory majority with DUP brought in to make a workable cameron govt. But I wouldn’t put money on it, it’s still too close to call.

On, the other hand, I suspect UKIP may gain some sympathy votes due to Farage’s accident. This could cost the tories.

Er remind me when Marx was published again ? And how many of the population could read, let alone afford to buy books ?
And of course in revolutionary France/Russia they all just logged onto LC before starting the revolution did they ?

@40

Sigh. I said I was going to let you off an’ all…

how many of the population could read, let alone afford to buy books ?

Exactly the point. So they used pictures. Although your ref to Marx is slightly spurious – I was referring to marxism as propogated by the Soviets who used masses of media (see here for example)

You really think they (and the fascists) would go to all that trouble if it didn’t have an affect?

@41

If you are using “media” to mean “any cultural artefact apart from the spoken word” (a definition I would dispute BTW) then obviously “the media” has always been used politically. In it’s modern sense (middle class “liberals” who couldn’t get into the professions getting paid absurd amounts of money for running around the BBC with clipboards) then its a 20thC phenomena.
Propaganda is political advertising, and like advertising, it’s generally considered a worthwhile investment if it influences 10% of the audience. For the other 90% its just preaching to the converted/lost in the noise.
The difficulty of course is that no one ever says “I bought this washing powder because I liked the advert”, any more than they would say “I voted labour today because I started reading the Guardian last week”.

I think the Tories will get over 300 seats.

http://idlepenpusher.blogspot.com/2010/05/vote-for-liberty.html

[43] IPP, I see that on your blog you use the word “homosceptic”. This is a new one on me. I presume it means someone who doubts the existence of homosexuals. Or possibly their utility: after all, Eurosceptics don’t, as a rule, hold that the land occasionally visible from the White Cliffs of Dover is in fact part of Turkey or Syria. If the latter, then clearly all heterosexuals are homosceptic in the sense that they are of no interest to us as homosexuals – however much we may value them as human beings. And vice versa, of course.

Have I got the gist of what you meant to say, or not?

@42

Um no, I’m using “media” to mean (the plural of) one of the means or channels of general communication or information.

Surely anything “in its modern sense” is a 20thC phenomena..? democracy, education, health, literature, pop(ular) music… but then again Fascism and Soviet Communism were both 20thC phenomena, so I’m not sure what the point is. And on the other side of the coin – why would the US spend so much on anti-Red films in the ’50s if not to influence? Why do Arab states still run anti-Semitic cartoons etc in their papers? Why did Nazi Germany use film and newspaper to spread their message?

Of course no-one likes to admit being influenced by anything – adverts, newspapers, propaganda – but we all are to some extent. It’s just a case of sifting through obvious partisanship like the Sun comparing Cameron to Obama(!) as well as more subtle forms of persuasion. The media – however defined – have more of an influence than you think, particularly when there is very little difference between the main outlets (the Sun, the Mail, the Telegraph, the Times, Sky, ITN, the Express etc all have an obvious right-wing bias).

As for the Beeb: as far as I can tell righties say it’s too leftwing, lefties say it’s too rightwing… must be doing something right.

[46]

As for the Beeb: as far as I can tell righties say it’s too leftwing, lefties say it’s too rightwing… must be doing something right.

You don’t get it, do you? Those who believe that the BBC is too left-wing also believe that (i) people who disagree with them are the ones who have been ruining this country these last fifty (or 150) years and that (ii) impartial means an editorial line that lies in the middle of those taken by print newspapers.

I will be gobsmacked if Cameron doesn’t arrange – through an “open competititon” tendering process – for Murdoch to get his hands on one of BBC or ITV/C4 news before the next election, and for NewsCorp also to have a veto on who sits on the board of the regulator. James Murdoch will doubtless consider that he is owed no less.

@ 45 In which case “media” means anything, which is the same as meaning nothing. I assumed Sally meant media in the sense of “state or privately owned form of mass communication”. Private exchange of stories, texts etc are cultural communication, obviously, but I wouldn’t include them as media.

We are indeed influenced by everything, but reasearch points to subjective experience being the most powerfull (as in witnessing real violence is far more psychologically formative than playing a “violent” video game) followed by peer group (see any teenager).

As to why effort goes into persuasive media – as I said above, it works (albeit it slowly and unpredictably) on some of the peope, some of the time. The rest is a combination of self-aggrandisment, ego massage and mutual masturbation (I.e without the media Peter Mandelson is just another olegenious snake oil salesman in a cheap suit, and without him the media are reporting on “cat stuck up tree” type stories).

Agree on the beeb, annoying at times, but part of the national fabric.

@46

Not sure what I’m “not getting”? Sure, the Beeb is screwed if (and at this moment in time it is still an “if”) Cameron and his gang get in but saying that, I think they do a pretty decent job of annoying everyone on the political spectrum.

Personally I’d say there is a fundamental bias within the Beeb as an org towards establishment views – where I profoundly disagree with the “evil librul” thesis that some righties put forward – but I wouldn’t shout about it being ‘right-wing’ because it simply isn’t.

“Unlike you sally I see the media as largely an irrelevance – ”

So why does your tory party want to destroy the BBC?

The Right, both here and the US like a Capitalist media that is paid for by corporations. This is called FREE in the sense that the govt has not got to regulate it, but in fact does it’s own regulation for right wing parties. (eg) Pushing a line that is right wing all thge time.

The Right in America is now pushing to control the internet through telephone corporations. So much for a philosophy that defends free speech.

In a corporate state, the state media is the corporate media.

Oh, and if the media is unimportant why does it waste so much time on politics at election time? And why do the tory party give out Knighthoods to media editors of right wing papers?

And why does the guy at News international say “his job is to get Cameron into fucking number 10?”

@ 49 Sally they are not “my party” I don’t have a party.

The argument about right/left wing applies to the BBC (pushing multi-culti and global warming 24/7, 365) as much as to Sky (who have spent all day talking about the Farage plane crash). The most popular story on the BBC wesite is currently film of a street fight between a BNP candidate and a group of asians. Make of that what you will.
The difference is that the BBC, as a publicly funded broadcaster, and therefore a branch of the civil service, has a duty to be “objective”, whereas the Murdoch press don’t. The argument being if no one liked/agreed with what they say they wouldn’t have any readers/advertisers, whereas because *everyone* is forced to pay for the BBC it has to be representative of all views equally. It’s the same reason why the Guardian is technically bankrupt, and only stays in print because it has a trust fund to fall back on (like most of it’s readers).

My question would be, if the press really are so powerfull and right wing why do we have a democrat in the whitehouse and (until tomorrow at least) a socialist in no 10 ? Perhaps the answer is that many people absorb “right wing” media but don’t act on it in the ballot box, as in we are not blank slates ?

Fasinating but the usual defence.

Whenever tories are confronted about so called

Just knocked in doors for 10 straight hours in Bethnal Green and Bow.

Labour to take the seat by 1000 votes.

Fascinating, but the usual defence.

Whenever tories are confronted about their claims of so called BBC bias they always, like a scratch reflex on a dog change the subject to ownership. They can’t help themselves, they do it every time. The BBC seems biased to tories because most of them get their news from the Daily Wail or the torygraph. So when they watch something that gives both side of the story they assume bias.

Also , the tories are the worst of all the parties for taking criticism . Considering the fact that they control 80% of the media is just as well because they don’t take criticism at all well.

Answer to your last question is this. Labour were supported by the Murdoch press for the last 10 years.

Lol iPhone made Freudian slip.

ps lots of electoral dodginess from Respect – intimidation, posing as family of elderly Bengali speakers not speaking English and going into polling booths with them etc

@ 54 “The BBC seems biased to tories because most of them get their news from the Daily Wail or the torygraph. So when they watch something that gives both side of the story they assume bias.”

I don’t have a problem with the BBC, but they often don’t give both sides of the story. For example, they report climate change as fact, never putting the sceptic side of the argument, they under report crime (unless it’s against one of their favoured groups), and they never report the negative aspects of muti-culturalism or mass migration. Their website in particular presents a simplistic, touchy feely, egalitarian, 30 something, middle class, london based socialist bubble as reality, when it’s a reality few people would recognise, and no one actually lives in.

@ 54 “Answer to your last question is this. Labour were supported by the Murdoch press for the last 10 years.”

Exactly – how can they be “right wing” then ?

They supported the war in Iraq, so did the Cons and Murdoch.

They supported the deregulation of the banking industry, so did Murdoch.

New Labour was many things but socalist it was not.

Tory majority of 20-30
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNMVMNmrqJE

My predictions are all about Cameron who is the most sinister senior politician that I have observed in the last 30 years.

Firstly, I predict that the nice guy veneer will crumble before Monday morning, whatever the result. It’ll be like one of those Dr Who denouements when the politician’s real face is revealed on live television and the studio audience gasp in horror. (I have some sympathy with David Icke and his conspiracy that many public figures are heavily disguised lizards. Icke believes that he can see through the subterfuge and is aghast that others cannot. Similarly, I am shocked that so many rational people cannot see the real David Cameron.)

Secondly, Cameron will drop out of visibility if he loses the election, whether it be by 50 seats or 5 seats. The Tories will not tolerate failure, and Cameron lacks the humility and grace to sit on the back benches for long. Pity the people who have to work with him in his next job; where he is at the moment, at least he can only offend Conservatives.

Thirdly, if Cameron wins, the honeymoon period will be shorter than for any previous PM. The electorate will learn to dislike him very quickly.

Not an election result prediction and possibly in bad taste: the first parliamentary by-election (ignoring the postponed election and likely reruns owing to fraud) will be in Bootle.

Or even better
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReIAna459sg&feature=related

@ 58 “New Labour was many things but socalist it was not”

Maybe not classic Citizen Smith/Clause 4 socialism, but the expansion of the state, the commitments to “equality”, “social justice”, the hammering of bourgeois values are all part of it’s modern equivalent, a lame, po-mo, cappucino, guacemole and chips socialism, but socialism none the less.

I predict (and fear) a Tory majority and not even a close one.

Centre-left/left vote fractured between Lab, Lib, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green (SDLP if they get a look-in).

In short: a disaster.

63

I fear you may be right. It will be a re run of the 1980s, with the anti tory vote divided up.

62
Social liberal but never a socialist, socialism is an economic system which is not capitalist, clause 4 only signalled a process towards socialism.

My prediction

Votes: Con 35.1, Lab 27.8, LD 27.1

Seats: Con 295, Lab 243, LD 84, Others 28