contribution by various ippr researchers

Those who advocate a post-election ‘progressive alliance’ between Labour and the Liberal Democrats do so based on the understanding that the two parties co-habit a significant chunk of the political spectrum.

Yet what most commentators appear to be missing is that the two parliamentary parties as they stand are not the two parties that will exist on Friday morning.

Who are the new MPs we are about to send to Westminster, what are their political beliefs, and – crucially – could they work together in the event of a hung parliament?

To help us tackle these important questions the ippr conducted an online poll of 255 prospective parliamentary candidates (PPCs), excluding sitting MPs and targeted at those expecting to win safe seats or fighting marginals.

Our first finding was that if proportional representation is the ‘deal breaker’ in a hung parliament, both David Cameron and Gordon Brown will find it difficult to persuade their backbenchers to back electoral reform.

All of the Conservative PPCs polled supported first past the post, while only 10% of Labour PPCs backed proportional representation or a mixed system as used in Scotland and Wales.

Our second set of findings provides better news for those hopeful for a progressive alliance. The poll found that Labour and Lib Dem PPCs have much more in common with each other than either set of candidates do with the Conservatives, an ideological overlap which is a necessary precursor to a deal which hopes to survive more than a few months.

Most Labour and Liberal Democrat PPCs agreed that the redistribution of income from rich to poor should be a priority, whereas only 30% of our Conservative respondents agreed.

On the issue of benefits, the same battle lines emerged: 59% of Conservatives disagreed with the statement that ‘too many people’s lives would be damaged by cutting benefits’, compared to just 7% of Labour PPCs and 17% of Lib Dem candidates.

On other issues, division emerged within the prospective alliance, but not necessarily as expected. On Foreign policy and climate change, the Liberal Democrat PPCs camped to the left of Labour rather than occupying the middle ground, and the same was true on whether Britain is over-reliant on the City.

91% of Lib Dem PPCs agreed that we have been too reliant on the City for growth and should curb its role, compared to 44% of Labour PPCs.

All said, the Class of 2010 bring with them one potential deal breaker: electoral reform. On other important ideological issues, however, a hefty plot of common ground exists to give hope for those advocating an alliance.

A final finding, however, sours the tone of the election in more general terms: 75% of the new cohort were chosen by less than 200 party members and 28% by less than 100, indicative of a lingering disconnect between people and politics despite predictions of a high turn out at the ballots tomorrow.

Reader comments

1. Liberal Conspiracy

   How close are the Libdems and Labour candidates really? http://bit.ly/cPChtc

2. Tweets that mention How close are the Libdems and Labour candidates really? -- Topsy.com

   [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Liberal Conspiracy. Liberal Conspiracy said: How close are the Libdems and Labour candidates really? http://bit.ly/cPChtc [...]

3. Beth Carroll

   Liberal Conspiracy » How close are Libdem and Labour candidates really? http://bit.ly/cGG5AZ

4. Josef AK

   @TheBlueNation Good news that Cameron has dealt w/ Clegg's fantasy. Scuttlebutt is many Labour MPs don't like PR – http://is.gd/c1s41 .