The latest IpsosMori polling from marginal seats has very grim reading for the Tories.

Con 35% (+3), Lab 38% (+2), Lib Dem 21% (-2)

Here’s the Ipsos-Mori verdict:

Voting intentions (among those absolutely certain to vote) in these key constituencies are Conservative 35%, Labour 38%, Liberal Democrat 21%, Others 6%. This represents a swing of 5.5% to the Conservatives since 2005. As in the previous three waves, this would result in a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party. Certainty of voting in these constituencies has increased steadily over the last month, and a total of 71% of adults now say that they are absolutely certain to vote.

The increase in support for the Liberal Democrats in last week’s poll has been maintained, with 21% of voters saying they intend to vote Lib Dem (compared to 11% in the first two waves), even though almost all these constituencies are ones that the Liberal Democrats cannot realistically hope to win.

However, a week before polling day, almost half of the public say that they may change their mind before May 6th (46%). Conservative voters are more likely to have definitely decided (65%) than Labour and Lib Dem voters (51% and 42%).

Both Labour and Conservative supporters who say they may change their mind would be twice as likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats as to the other major party. Of Liberal Democrats who might change their minds, more think it would be to vote Labour (52%) than Conservative (33%), potentially strengthening Labour’s lead here.

In other words, even if sentiments shift, they are more likely to shift towards the Libdems than Conservatives or Labour.

Most of the polling was done before Bigot-gate, but it’s unlikely the polls will shift that decisively for the Tories. We are still very much in Hung Parliament territory.

Reader comments

1. Jonathan Taylor

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10. Stuart Brandwood

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11. Mandy Precious

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15. Tanners1977

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