More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron
Petter Kellner of YouGov asks: Could the Lib Dems win outright?
One reason why the Lib Dems could, just possibly, achieve this is revealed by YouGov’s latest daily poll. We asked: “How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election”. The responses: Lib Dem 49%, Conservative 25%, Labour 19%. On the – admittedly unrealistic – assumption of uniform national swing, there would be 548 Lib Dem MPs, 41 Labour MPs and just 25 Tories.
It won’t happen. But this question does show that if Nick Clegg continues to perform well in TV debates and voters regard him as a serious challenger, then Lib Dem support could rise further from the 30% or so that, all pollsters agree, it has achieved since last Friday.
And here are the responses from a recent poll:
| Delighted | Wouldn’t mind | Dismayed | |
| Lib Dem govt under Nick Clegg | 29% | 38% | 21% |
| Con govt under David Cameron | 25% | 20% | 45% |
| Lab govt under Gordon Brown | 18% | 23% | 51% |
| Labour-Lib Dem coalition | 14% | 35% | 39% |
| Con-Lib Dem coalition | 9% | 33% | 45% |
| Grand 3-party coalition | 9% | 24% | 47% |
In fact, as I pointed out this morning at the Guardian: It may be time for Labour to quietly make plans to ditch Brown.
And see Anthony Barnett: The Liberal Democrat breakthrough can succeed
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments
Well.. they say a week is a long time in politics… who would have predicted this before the debate?
Nick Clegg for PM… hell yeah!
This is going to be some hangover, one way or the other…
I remember a radio election broadcast from 1997 with John Cleese stating that polls showed over 50% of people would vote Lib Dem if they thought they could win.
well of course they do! in bhis place, it is all about power without responsibility…no chance of being elected so he can tell people what they want to hear….just like the venerable Cable. No one remembers his policyflip-flops. No one remembers that he has been wrong on all important matters. he sounds reassuring…and he will never be in a position of power inless the British public goes insane…it’s like voting for your preferred headmaster.
I take it that we voters are meant to interpret the concerted ad hominem abuse and smears being heaped on Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and Gordon Brown as a sure sign of how modernised the Conservatives have become under Cameron’s leadership.
@ 4 diogenes1960
“…he sounds reassuring…and he will never be in a position of power inless the British public goes insane…it’s like voting for your preferred headmaster.”
Have you been in a cave for the last week? Or perhaps marooned somewhere bereft of internet access due to the volcanic ash cloud?
The “insane” British public seem to be about to do just that. Sooner Cable than Osborne or Darling. I reckon the insane option now would be NOT to ensure a hung parliament!
It’s curious how a succession of polls ranking the Treasury spokesmen of the three main parties, starting well before the televised debate of the party leaders, regularly ranked George Osborne at the bottom for competence.
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
- Eoin Mahon
RT @houseoftwits: RT @libcon More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Matt Barr
More people want Nick Clegg as PM than Cameron, YouGov poll: http://bit.ly/aL0NfO #ge10 #ge2010 #ukelection
- Martin Veart
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Max
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Catherine Nicholls
RT @libcon More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva Only 21% would be "dismayed" if Clegg was PM. GB and DC in trouble
- Julian Huppert
RT @houseoftwits: RT @libcon More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Sarah Raphael
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Benjamin A'Lee
More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron. http://ur1.ca/w37p (via @libcon) #ge2010 #libdems
- Cadan ap Tomos
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Top news
"More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron" and related posts: Liberal ConspiracyOne reason why the Lib Dems could… http://bit.ly/c2IpDx
- Top news
"More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron" and related posts: Liberal ConspiracyOne reason why the Lib Dems could… http://bit.ly/c2IpDx
- Katie
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bi2qdb
- Liberal Conspiracy
More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- House Of Twits
RT @libcon More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Catherine Neilan
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- unslugged
RT @libcon More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva < more ppl prolly want Mugabe than Cameron too
- topsy_top20k_en
More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Jo Shaw
RT @HouseofTwits: RT @libcon More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Gary
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Jonathan Calder
RT @houseoftwits: RT @libcon More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- Jimmie Franklin
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
- London Liberal Youth
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bKCdva
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- mark hawkins
RT @libcon: More people want Clegg as PM than Cameron http://bit.ly/bi2qdb
- Richard Hebditch
If people when voting thought Lib Dems could win, they'd win 548 seats on uniform national swing: http://bit.ly/9l8emY (via @libcon)
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