The US polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight.com – which was spot on and consistently excellent during the Obama campaign, has published two articles analysing voting patters in the UK.

They suggest that support for the Libdems and Labour may be understated.

1. In the first analysis they look at the proliferation of ‘mobile-phone-only’ households.

In the UK, at least 13 percent of households fall into the mobile-only category as of 2008, with lower income Britons far more likely to be mobile-only (23 percent) than wealthier people (8 percent). In addition, younger people are far more likely to live in mobile-only households, including more than a quarter of the youngest demographic group (15-24) and a fifth in 25-34 year olds.

Lower income households are more likely to be pro-Labour while the youth vote is moving strongly towards the Libdems. Most pollsters other than YouGov call households in order to gauge opinion.

If mobile-only households are left out then that could mean an understatement of Labour and Libdem support. In the US – pollsters understated support for Obama by about 2-3% due to this practice. But it does require the youth vote turning out for Clegg for this to hold true.

2. The second post concentrates on older voters and internet polling – carried out principally by YouGov.

They point out that since its mostly more educated people who are online, there is a danger that richer and more conservative voters are over-represented in older voters demographic. This doesn’t apply to younger voters as most of them are online anyway.

But what about poorer pensioners? Are they filling out YouGov polls? Are they being under-represented? Could this mean that the polls are understating Labour support in this category?

I’m going to email Peter Kellner of YouGov to ask.

Peter Kellner replies only to say that:

Taking everything into account, our figures are representative of the electorate by age, gender, social class, political affiliation and newspaper readership. That is why our results are consistently accurate.

Reader comments

1. House Of Twits

   RT @libcon Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/bA3hHC

2. Chris Wiggin

   RT @libcon: Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/bA3hHC #fb

3. Greg Eden

   RT @libcon: Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/bA3hHC

4. Marcus Hickman

   RT @libcon Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/9zSClw

5. Thomas Rado

   RT @Marcus_Hickman: RT @libcon Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/9zSClw

6. Liberal Conspiracy

   Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/bA3hHC

7. Elrik Merlin

   RT @libcon: Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/bA3hHC

8. topsy_top20k_en

   Are polls understating Labour & Libdem support? http://bit.ly/bA3hHC

9. Lee Durbin

   US polling site FiveThirtyEight asks: Is the Lib-Dem Surge For Real? http://bit.ly/cU8VPw (Liberal Conspiracy analysis http://bit.ly/csPi31)

10. Gia Milinovich

    @Greenleftie @hannahnicklin just sent this link: http://j.mp/aP0kNi 13% of UK households are mobile-only, also likely to be young/"liberals"

11. hannahnicklin

    40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration website http://bit.ly/c7SHDl same age group is largely unpolled http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

12. David Smallwood

    RT @hannahnicklin: 40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration website http://bit.ly/c7SHDl same age group is largely unpolled http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

13. Helen Lambert

    RT @hannahnicklin: 40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration website http://bit.ly/c7SHDl same age group is largely unpolled http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

14. hannahnicklin

    @girlonetrack 40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration site http://bit.ly/c7SHDl age group is largely unpolled http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

15. paulstpancras

    RT @hannahnicklin: @girlonetrack 40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration site http://bit.ly/c7SHDl age group… http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

16. hannahnicklin

    @giagia this is a good article on it, 13% uk homes mobile-only http://j.mp/aP0kNi

17. hannahnicklin

    @Lettuphant 13% uk households mobile only, poorer and younger, more natural left wing territory http://j.mp/aP0kNi

18. Will Wybrow

    RT @hannahnicklin: 40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration website http://bit.ly/c7SHDl same age group is largely unpolled http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

19. Jamie Andrews

    RT @hannahnicklin: 40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration website http://bit.ly/c7SHDl same age group is largely unpolled http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

20. andyvglnt

    RT @hannahnicklin: 40% surge in 18-24 visits to voter registration website http://bit.ly/c7SHDl same age group is largely unpolled http://bit.ly/aP0kNi

21. Lisa

    RT @hannahnicklin: @Lisaansell I posted this at the time: http://bit.ly/aP0kNi it has links to the relevant studies.

22. hannahnicklin

    @Lisaansell I posted this at the time: http://bit.ly/aP0kNi it has links to the relevant studies.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.