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Full latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again


8:15 pm - April 18th 2010

by Sunny Hundal    


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Latest daily polling figures by YouGov (fieldwork 17th-18th April) are:

* Liberal Democrat 33%
* Conservative 32%
* Labour 26%
* Others 8%

“The Lib Dem surge continues, with them moving into first place, mostly at the expense of Labour, down to 26% in today’s poll.”

The general election will be held on May 6. On a scale of 0 (certain NOT to vote) to 10 (absolutely certain to vote), how likely are you to vote in the general election?
0 – Certain NOT to vote: 4%
1: 0%
2: 1%
3: 2%
4: 1%
5: 3%
6: 1%
7: 3%
8: 5%
9: 11%
10 – Absolutely certain to vote: 68%
Don’t know: 2%

Additional questions

All three main parties say they will reduce government borrowing sharply over the next few years, by raising taxes and/or cutting public spending. Leaving aside whether you support any of the particular policies the parties are putting forward, do you think, in each case, that their sums add up – that, if they implement their policies will they hit their target for reducing government borrowing?

Conservatives
Yes, their sums probably do add up: 21%
No, they probably don’t add up: 56%
Not sure: 23%

Labour
Yes, their sums probably do add up: 24%
No, they probably don’t add up: 52%
Not sure: 24%

Liberal Democrats
Yes, their sums probably do add up: 26%
No, they probably don’t add up: 36%
Not sure: 37%

Here are some proposals that have been made in the current election. In each case, do you support or oppose it?

Tax: Scrap income tax on earnings of less than £10,000 a year. The £17billion cost of this will be paid for by a tax on bigger houses, a tax on airline flights, restricting tax relief on pensions savings for higher-rate taxpayers, and attempting to clamp down on tax avoidance.
Support: 66%
Oppose: 20%
Don’t know: 14%

Defence: Replace Britain’s Trident nuclear weapons system and develop a variant that is a lot cheaper but less powerful and possibly easier to detect and stop.
Support: 37%
Oppose: 37%
Don’t know: 26%

Europe: Give the European Union more powers on justice issues, bank regulation, the flow of asylum seekers, limiting climate change and cooperate more on security and defence.
Support: 18%
Oppose: 65%
Don’t know: 17%

Euro: scrap the Pound and join the Euro when the conditions are right.
Support: 21%
Oppose: 65%
Don’t know: 14%

Immigration: Give an amnesty to 1 million illegal immigrants who have lived in Britain for ten years, speak good English and don’t have a criminal record.
Support: 35%
Oppose: 49%
Don’t know: 16%

Prisons: Allow 58,000 criminals a year to do community service instead of going to prison by banning jail terms of less than six months.
Support: 33%
Oppose: 50%
Don’t know: 17%

Public sector pay: Limit pay rises for public sector workers for the next two years to £400 a year.
Support: 57%
Oppose: 24%
Don’t know: 19%

Higher education: scrap university tuition fees over six years, and increase taxes to pay for this.
Support: 31%
Oppose: 48%
Don’t know: 20%

Voting: Change the voting system for electing MPs, so that individual constituencies become much larger and parties are represented in parliament broadly in line with their national vote.
Support: 54%
Oppose: 16%
Don’t know: 29%

Energy: Stop any new nuclear power stations from being built and attempt to solve the energy crisis by coal-fired power generation plants and wind turbines instead.
Support: 32%
Oppose: 41%
Don’t know: 27%

Additional question (fieldwork 18th April):

Leaving aside how much you like or dislike them, how much do you feel you know what the following party leaders stand for?

Gordon Brown
I know a lot about what he stands for: 27%
A fair amount: 42%
Just a little: 17%
I know hardly anything about what he stands for: 14%

David Cameron
I know a lot about what he stands for: 20%
A fair amount: 42%
Just a little: 23%
I know hardly anything about what he stands for: 15%

Nick Clegg
I know a lot about what he stands for: 15%
A fair amount: 36%
Just a little: 29%
I know hardly anything about what he stands for: 19%

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About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments


“Prisons: Allow 58,000 criminals a year to do community service instead of going to prison by banning jail terms of less than six months.”

A scandalously poorly worded question. No description of the type of criminals (which is Lib Dems fault) and no explanation as to why it’s being done, or the potential effects. Clearly the Lib Dem policy does need more scrutiny so people know exactly what is being offered rather than these crude breakdowns.

Good result though if it lasts.

Looks to me like a poll The Sun would like so it can loudly scream how unpopular Libdem policies are.

Also – it’s crazy that the Tories are now in the low 30s. Insane.

Interesting that perspectives on ‘their sums don’t add up’ is the same for Labour and Tories.

Putting these numbers into a uniform swing calculator gives the following seat totals:

Labour 247
Conservative 239
Liberal Democrats 132

So the party with the most votes gets the fewest seats, and the party with the least votes gets the most seats. Can anyone seriously defend an electoral system that gives this outcome?

4. Bill Kristol-Balls

*** BREAKING NEWS ***

The Sun come out in support of PR

But astonishingly, because of Britain’s appallingly out of date voting system Labour would STILL get almost the most seats if people voted the same way on May 6, firing Gordon Brown back into No10.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/election2010/2937300/Lib-Dems-now-in-pole-position.html

No obstacle now stands in the way of a glorious Lib-Con pact now that Uncle Rupert has cleared it for Dave to sign up to PR.

The future’s bright 😉

5. George W Potter

“The future’s bright 😉 ”

And, according to the daily mail’s description of the LibDems political colours, the future’s orange.

Iain – err, you’ll find no one here supporting the current system.

Though the USC is a crap way to make the point I think. Even if the Libdems end up getting the most votes (unlikely), then the number of seats would be very different because it would depend on whether they’re up against Tory or Labour incumbents. It seems the Tories are the ones who have drained most of their support to Libdems.

“Defence: Replace Britain’s Trident nuclear weapons system and develop a variant that is a lot cheaper but less powerful and possibly easier to detect and stop.”

It’d be useful to know from what angle people are opposing this… the wording of the question invites opposition on the grounds that we need a more powerful deterrent, but of course a substantial proportion of the opposition will come from people who don’t think we need/should have a nuclear deterrent at all.

I found the very high proportion of people who said they were pretty much certain to vote interesting – this would seem to be much higher than usual – unless of course people always overstate their intention to vote.

Seeing both the Sun and the Daily Mail panicking over the Lib Dem’s current mega surge is thoroughly enjoyable.

@7 Tom Ash

I think the angle is that many of those who agree with retaining nuclear weapons disagree with a “like for like” replacement of Trident. I don’t know the current percentages, but there is a fairly consistant “pro” majority for the UK having a nuclear deterrent. The issue now is whether we actually need to spend the huge amount needed for a Trident replacement, or a smaller amount on a system which (whilst not as invulnerable) is sufficient.

Other than outright unilateralists, I think many – possibly a majority- are persuaded that the “extra” money required for a new Trident would be better diverted either to beef up our conventional forces or to other social expenditure, or to reducing the deficit, or some element of all three.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. House Of Twits

    RT @libcon Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  2. Christian Mackintosh

    RT @libcon: Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  3. Matt Lodder

    RT @libcon Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  4. anthony rigby

    RT @libcon: Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  5. Shona

    RT @pickledpolitics: Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again. Plus, questions on key issues: http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  6. sianberry

    Srsly, is great RT @pickledpolitics Full results of latest YouGov: Libdems top again. Plus, questions on key issues: http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  7. Liberal Conspiracy

    Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  8. Saif A.

    RT @libcon: Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  9. sunny hundal

    Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again. Plus, questions on key issues: http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  10. topsy_top20k

    Full results of latest YouGov poll: Libdems top again http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  11. Lib Dem Bounce Becomes A Trend « A Future Bear For All

    […] The latest YouGov figures show that the Liberal Democrat surge in the polls is showing no signs of […]

  12. sunny hundal

    More ppl think Tory sums don't add up than of Libdems. LD tax policies popular but not others: http://bit.ly/97bZuW

  13. Edward T.Rifle

    So Lib-Dems lead the polls but people don't support their policies – http://bit.ly/91v1xw -? Except, interestingly, on tax?

  14. Generalising » Blog Archive » Turnout figures

    […] Liberal Conspiracy, I’ve noticed, are quoting the YouGov polling figures in full – not just the headline percentages, but some of the subsidiary questions. (14/4; 18/4). […]





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