Voters want hung parl. than Tory or Labour win
The Times / Populus poll tonight shows the Conservative lead slipping to 3pts. The Tories are at 36%, Labour at% and Libdems on 21%.
More interesting is the general level of annoyance at all three major parties.
The latest poll shows that 32 per cent of the public now hope for a hung parliament (as opposed to expecting one), against 28 per cent wanting a Tory majority and 22 per cent a Labour one. Lib Dem voters prefer a deal with Labour than the Tories in a hung parliament, by 44 to 31 per cent. The public is evenly split 40 to 42 per cent about whether they want Labour or the Tories in either a majority or a minority government.
…
Voters were asked to say which party had proposed eight key manifesto pledges. They wrongly identified four: reducing the increase in national insurance contributions (naming Labour not the Tories); allowing unsuccessful schools, hospitals and the police (the Tories, not Labour); tightening up takeover rules (the Tories not Labour); and requiring foreign workers employed in public services to speak fluent English (the Tories not Labour).
In only one case, the £150-a-year tax break, did more than half of voters (60 per cent) correctly identify the party making the proposal.
Which basically confirms my point that most voters don’t really pay attention to policy pledges.
It looks like there are two policies voters broadly identify with Tories: cutting taxes and cutting immigration. But neither are high enough priorities it seems or their share of the vote would be much higher.
Labour are neck-and-neck with the Conservatives on the economy, by far the biggest issue, which is holding up their vote well. See these details from yesterday.
YouGov polling is expected around 10pm tonight.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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“Which basically confirms my point that most voters don’t really pay attention to policy pledges.”
Does it? I’d say it probably confirms the policies are close enough together and woolly enough between the two parties across the board that it’s easy to misjudge who said what. Where’s the poll question on “do you care about policies?”
Credit where it’s due.
IMO George Osborne can claim much of the personal credit for this achievement.
I think Chris Grayling can claim some credit for this achievement but not as much as George Osborne.
Could we have the % for Labour please?
@4
33% (+1) according to http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
but, um, you could’ve kinda worked that out from the line “the Conservative lead slipping to 3pts”
It’s a weird way to phrase a policy: “allowing unsuccessful schools, hospitals and the police (the Tories, not Labour);”
UK polling report has rephrased that as “identified Labour’s policy on successful schools and hospitals taking over failing ones as being a Tory policy”. I’m still not 100% who has proposed what, or who may have not proposed something new and is being implicitly criticised for it. Count me amongst those not paying attention to pledges for that one.
@6
Sure I could, but it’s good practice to have the figures there.
(For the record, I’m a pedant) :p
This site is for people who want to vote tactically (strategically) for a hung parliament: http://www.hangtheparliament.org.uk/
Where’s the poll question on “do you care about policies?”
Nah, most people like to think they’re paying attention to policy, but given the swings are so limited, I highly doubt it.
I think Grayling and Osborne make the Tories look worse… but other than that its rarely about policy. It’s just that Tories look like schoolboys when they come on TV.
I bet you Lee, the impact from the manifesto launches will be minimal. I expect to see more swing after the leaders debates – providing enough people watch them.
Before I read this, may I just congratulate you Sunny on a brilliant title. I’m lovin’ it. It’s Twitterific.
The FT’s headline on Wednesday reads: Hands off vow to business, as the lead to its report on the Conservative manifesto.
Inevitably, I looked for something about regulatory reform of financial markets and institutions but couldn’t find anything. That surprised me, seeing as how we got into the international financial crisis and what Lord Turner, chairman of the FSA, has been saying.
There was much about volunteering, of course, on the way to the Big Society concept. The trouble is how often will we come to hear reports like this: It was sad about Fred but no one had volunteered cover that day.
I’ve have to say that I’ve impression of a party that isn’t quite in touch with the real world.
The only one of the non-big three standing where I live is the BNP. So either a protest vote (or legitimate vote) against the big three is not possible. The BNP will end up with many more votes through situations like this (not mine, I hope its needless to say).
I understand that the smaller parties don’t have huge funds, but really it is disappointing not to have the Greens in my patch. At least it would be a counter-point to the BNP for those not wanting to vote big-three. (Plus, I would actuallly want to vote for them straight up, not just a protest vote – very frustrating).
@13 Cynical/Realist
Spoiling your ballot is certainly one option… or if it makes sense in your constituency, vote tactically to promote a hung parliament: at least that way you might see some change!
@9 Strategist
Thanks for the link.
Hopefully lots of people will check it, and act on it’s recommendations. Hang the parliament… yeah, now there’s a poster I WOULD put up in my window this election season!
Strategist: It’s an interesting idea, but its advice basically reduces to:
– England: Vote Lib Dem
– Scotland: Vote SNP or Lib Dem, depending on which was ahead last time
– Wales: Vote PC or Lib Dem, depending on which was ahead last time
– Northern Ireland: Vote for whoever won last time
in all but a tiny handful of constituencies.
In English constituencies where the Lib Dems are a distant third, this will make no difference whatsoever to the chances of a hung Parliament. The better approach for those constituencies might be to recommend voting Conservative in the closest Lab-Con marginals (to lose Labour their majority) and then recommend Labour in the next block of Lab-Con marginals (to make sure the Conservatives don’t get one). This is more likely to give a hung parliament than increasing the Lib Dem vote share in any of those constituencies from 15% to (hyper-optimistically) 20%
@16 I agree with you, cim – am waiting for my registration to be processed so I can make some comments on the site exactly to that effect!
They have only got up & running in the last few days – let’s give ‘em a chance, the overall idea is the right one.
@15 I agree – a poster of the MPs hung out to dry on the line logo would look good in my window too.
32% of the public don’t even know what a hung parliament is, let alone understand its ramifications. What complete nonsense.
50% still want a majority of some description – so combined, that is more than 32%.
Are people getting thicker and thicker in this country?
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
- David Allen
RT @libcon: More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- sunny hundal
Despite being ahead on taxes and immigration, Tories aren't getting more votes as msgs on economy hazy: http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- Layla Moran
RT @HouseofTwits: RT @libcon More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- Hang 'em
RT @libcon: More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N #hangem
- Alan Marshall
RT @HouseofTwits RT @libcon More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- MissTJD
"general level of annoyance at all 3 parties": RT @libcon: More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- Liberal Conspiracy
More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- House Of Twits
RT @libcon More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- topsy_top20k_en
More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N
- Anthony Barnett
RT @libcon: More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N #hangem
- TayabullaSharief
RT @AnthonyBarnett: RT @libcon: More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N #hangem
- peterdcox
RT @libcon: More voters want hung parliament than Tory or Labour win http://bit.ly/diYg9N Be careful what you wish for!
- Alex Stapleton
“latest poll shows that 32 per cent of the public now hope for a hung parliament” http://tr.im/VFHp I certainly do.
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