Data abuse
Guest post by luis enrique
I wish people spent more time looking at data and less time pontificating, so in theory I ought to love the flourishing of attention paid to household income data
But I don’t, because I think it’s being misused. It’s possible to misuse data like this in lots of ways, but I want to focus on just one. The household survey data offers a static snapshot of household incomes, but the right way to think about poverty, and wealth, is to look at lifetime income profiles.
Here’s what I mean. continue reading… »
A Song for Cameron
There’s a bit of meme going around at the moment of various blogger’s choosing theme tunes for their blogs all of which led me to the realisation that, thus far, David Cameron hasn’t got a tune.
Barack Obama had a tune…
Bill Clinton had a tune…
Tony had a tune… (sorry!)
And Maggie had loads… (not that she would have wanted them)
But as for Dave, there doesn’t seem to be anything on the horizon.
Okay, so there are a few obvious contenders, like this…
And Jarvis nails its pretty well, of course…
Sadly, there isn’t a video of Frank Zappa’s cover of The Clovers’ doo-wop classic ‘Cocksucker’s Ball’ so we’ll have to make do the original in honour of D-Cam’s days as a Bullingdon Boy… (definitely NSFW audio)
And I’ve always thought this one by the Beatles fits pretty well…
Although its possible that Beau Bo’s come closest so far to capturing the essence of the Tories…
Tell you what. Let’s throw this one open to the floor… can you think of a better theme tune for D-Cam than any of these?
Teenage girls have sex. Get over it.
We recently reported the hilarious, if disturbing, remarks of Tory MP Tim Loughton:
“We need a message that actually it is not a very good idea to become a single mum at 14. [It is] against the law to get pregnant at 14. How many kids get prosecuted for having underage sex? Virtually none. Where are the consequences of breaking the law and having irresponsible underage sex? There aren’t any.”
So, The Guardian asked, should there be prosecutions?
“We need to be tougher. Without sounding horribly judgmental, it is not a good idea to be a mum at 14. You are too young, throwing away your childhood and prospects of developing a career.”
Without sounding horribly judgmental, anybody who thinks that there are no consequences to getting pregnant, and that a criminal record promotes a happy childhood and helps develop a healthy career, is a Platinum Imbecile.
Platinum Imbecility aside, there’s something to note about the bizarre universe Mr Loughton resides in: girls get pregnant by magic. continue reading… »
Tory grassroots split over North Korea
Our friends at Conservative Home carried reports that the former North Korean Finance Minister was executed because of his failed economic policies and because he was “a son of a bourgeois conspiring to infiltrate the ranks of revolutionaries to destroy the national economy”.
Inevitably, this news has left the nice people in the Tory grassroots who leave comments on their website confused about how to react.
At the time of writing, the majority have gone with “excellent idea, why can’t we follow North Korea’s lead and execute our political opponents”:
“I believe that a state is completely justified in using laws on treason to execute those who betray the nation while holding a position of power. That goes for us here in Britain too. It has always struck me as curious that we are prepared to kill foreigners at a time of war yet are not prepared to execute those that threaten national security from within. The execution in North Korea was justified.”
Brown and Darling have betrayed this once great country and I for one would cheer as loud as the church bells if they were executed for treason
However, a significant minority preferred “this proves that the Iraq war was right and we should invade North Korea”:
“Don’t worry, North Korea will fall apart eventually.
Just drop a few suicide paratroopers in with assault rifes and shoot up Poynyang or whatever it’s called. Utter chaos will ensue. Of course they’d need to be suicidal paratroopers ready to blow themselves up before being taken prisoner.
Sorry, I like fantasising about smashing North Korea to bits.”
“Or better still ask the Chinese to invade and tell them that they can keep the territory as part of China a la Tibet and Hong Kong.
Chinese style capitalism might well get North Korea’s economy going. China could crush that regime within hours thus wiping out a vile junta and improving regional stability.
It might not be a desirable democratic option but it would get rid a major nuisance and improve relations with China. They would get the kudos of having ended an evil regime and would get more territory. Also their army could test out all of its weapons as well.
But my favorite option has to be the US destroyers launching missiles and unleashing waves of airborne attacks. After that Western Troops would secure the place and make it safe for democracy.”
Truly it is the eternal dilemma for right-wing Tories – whether to admire authoritarian dictatorships, or invade them.
Telegraph finds entrance to Narnia
MPs’ expenses: Nadine Dorries says ‘main home’ is tiny Cotswold cottage
Nadine Dorries, who has repeatedly declined to disclose the location of the property, was paid the allowances on the basis that she needed two homes to work in both London and her Mid Bedfordshire seat.
Mrs Dorries is under investigation by John Lyon, the parliamentary commissioner for standards, who may recommend that she repay public funds received for unjustified claims.
MPs are entitled to claim back “second home” expenses that were “necessarily incurred in staying overnight away from their main home for the purpose of performing their parliamentary duties”.
Most designate a constituency house as their “main home” and bill taxpayers for a flat close to Westminster, where they can stay the night after working in Parliament.
Yet in a highly unusual arrangement, Mrs Dorries tells Commons officials that her “main home” is a one-bedroomed lodge-keeper’s cottage in a small Cotswold village, 90 miles away from Parliament and 55 miles from her constituency.
This allows her to claim “second home” allowances for her family house in her constituency, where neighbours have stated that she spent a significant amount of her time.
In all she has claimed £60,524 since 2006. She used the money to pay the house’s £18,000-a-year rent, as well as council tax and other domestic bills. She recently moved into a bigger farmhouse half a mile away.
—-
What a wonderful job we’re doing of keeping Nadine in the lifestyle to which she thinks she’s entitled.
Choose your scumbag of the week
As a bit of fun for a Friday morning we thought we’d offer our readers an opportunity to choose their political scumbag of the week, largely because this week has conveniently provided us with a strong field of contenders.
The rules are simple. just read through the following list of political low-lifes, decide which one is biggest scumbag and then use the either the comments facility or twitter* to hurl a bit of pithy but well-merited abuse at them.
*If you tweet in a response you’ll need to include a link to this post for it to be picked up
Sometime during the day – which is likely to more or less when I can be arsed – I’ll tot up the scores and we’ll have ourselves a winner.
So without further ado, lets list the nominees…
DNA Sampling: Wrong in principle, wrong in practice
Over at OurKingdom, Guy Aitchison has posted again on the news that Labour is considering making the retention of DNA samples ‘an issue’ for the election. The latest twist in the tale is that Alan Johnson is reputedly scuppering a compromise with the Conservatives on this issue in order to make it something that Labour can campaign on. The Tories are to be branded as the party that is friendly to burglars.
In a matter of weeks the Labour party leadership will be expecting party members to get out there and make the case for a Labour government on the doorstep. How many in the party agree with the government on DNA sampling and the ‘Tories are friends of burglars’ line?
Let’s remind ourselves what is being proposed. Back in 1995 the police set up a national DNA database. Anyone who was arrested was liable to have a DNA sample taken. This was then put on the database. When a crime is committed, and there is DNA evidence, the police can check it against the database.
The European Court ruled in 2008 that the practice of holding indefinitely samples taken from those not convicted of a crime is in violation of the European Convention of Human Rights (specifically in violation of Article 8 which upholds the citizen’s right to ‘a private life’).
The government responded, somewhat reluctantly and hesitatingly, by proposing to modify the original policy. Under what we may call the Johnson proposal, those arrested but not convicted of a crime will have their samples removed from the national database – but only after six years.
The Johnson proposal has the advantage that, in one respect, it may make it easier for the police to solve crimes. And this, of course, is the basis of the charge that opponents of the proposal are thereby ‘friendly’ to criminals.
But there are at least two strong reasons to oppose the proposal other than sympathy for criminals continue reading… »
Dizzy in a tizzy over MP’s invoice
From the file marked ‘are you fucking stupid or what?’…
A few days ago Dizzy Thinks spotted an oddity in the expense claims of Hull North Labour MP Diana Johnson:
At the end of the detailed, albeit censored claims, provided on the Parliamentary website, is an invoice to the tune of £1,654 for “delivery of a leaflet in Hull North Constituency during September and October 2007?.
Looks legit doesn’t it? However there’s is an oddity about it. You see, there appears to be no such company as J W Shipley Distribution, either solvent or dissolved, listed on Companies House. An advanced search for all companies with “Shipley” also throws up nothing. Curious!
There is, however, an “independent” member of Humberside Police Authority called John Shipley who happens to be a local Labour Party activist in Hull, who also stood for the Labour Party in Hull during the 2002 elections.
I tried to contact Mr Shipley yesterday for confirmation that the invoice was from him but as yet have had no response.
So is a Labour MP claiming Parliamentary expenses to pay a Labour member to deliver leaflets? Well, although he may not have responded, I’ve been speaking to Liberal Democrats in Hull who confirm they personally saw Labour activist (and frequent election agent) John Shipley out delivering the leaflets in question.
Rum indeed. Investigations are, as they say, continuing…
Tell you what, let’s save both LDV and Dizzy the time and effort of making even bigger arses of themselves by pointing out a few screamingly obvious facts.
1. The invoice from ‘JW Shipley Distribution’ does not include a company number nor does it appear to use the words ‘Limited’ or ‘Ltd’, hence Dizzy’s inability to find any reference to it at Companies House.
2. As a sole trader, John Shipley – it this is indeed him – entitled to use just about any business name he likes when carrying out trading activities, as long he doesn’t misrepresent the legal status of his business or use any of the restricted words or phrases set out in company law.
3. According to a statement given to the Yorkshire Post, who picked up this non-story yesterday, the invoice relates to the “distribution of a non-party political Parliamentary report to 40,000 households in Hull North in autumn 2007.”
Typical costs for a solus distribution of a leaflet or newsletter run to around $50 per 1,000 leaflets, which puts the amount listed on the invoice- £1654 – well within the usual ballpark which would, for a 40,000 delivery run – come in at around £2000.
In fact, if you look at the price here then it seem apparent that what JW Shipley Distribution have done is knock off the VAT that would have been payable had the leaflets gone out via an established distribution company, saving the taxpayer £350 in the process.
Unless either can provide evidence to show that the leaflets weren’t delivered or that the payment was not declared to HMRC as income then there’s nothing more to be said here.
Even if a Labour activist did get paid for delivering these leaflets, its of absolutely no consequence whatsoever.
In the days when I used to produce community newsletters for distribution to upwards of 17,000 households I used to farm out the delivery side of things to a local Scout troop and pay them the same amount that I would have done had I gone through a commercial business. I got the newsletters delivered – and usually much more reliably than I would have done by ‘going commercial’ – and they got their utilitiy bills nicely covered with a bit on top for additional equipment and extra activities for the kids.
It’s called localism and it works.
What brain scans can’t teach us
This month’s Prospect magazine has a section on neuroscience, and in particular its political implications.
One thing came up in their roundtable discussion that always gets my goat: the idea that neuroscience is going to be a good way of telling what effects on people different policies will have. Barbara Sahakian, a clinical neuropsychologist at Cambridge, says:
For years we changed our education system again and again, but these changes weren’t based on evidence about how we learned. Instead, wouldn’t it be useful if we thought about how the brain really works, and how children learn best, and in turn formulated educational policy based on that?
And the RSA’s Matthew Taylor adds, in a similar but more nakedly political vein:
I am confident that, as we find out more about our brains, it will strengthen the progressive case, in the sense that children learn best when they are actively involved, not being passive.
No, no, no.
Think about it: how could you use neuroscience to tell which teaching methods promote the best learning? continue reading… »
It’s not just criminals who carry knives
Over the weekend, I was fortunate enough to receive a review copy of Spirit Level films’ excellent new documentary ‘The Fear Factory‘, which I promise I’ll get around to reviewing for Lib Con sometime in the next few days.
In anticipation of that review and in keeping with my recent post on dodgy election leaflets, its been brought to my attention that the Lib Dems have been actively fear-mongering is some of their recent leaflet, the most egregious of which has to be this effort, which is being delivered to households in Haringey.
Why they don’t just go the whole hog and stick out a leaflet featuring Freddie Kruger and Jason Voorhees I don’t know but for what its worth the leaflet makes the following claims:
One in five thugs who are caught carrying a gun or a knife are let off with a caution. This news once again exposes Labour’s complete failure on crime.
Gordon Brown’s Roll of Shame:
- One in five criminals caught carrying a weapon only get a caution
- Only one crime in a hundred ends with a punishment in court
- Two violent crimes committed every single minute
A little over 18 months ago, a friend of mine left work at about half past six in the evening and started to walk home.
He managed to walk only about 40 yards or so from his workplace when he was stopped by two PCSOs and subjected to a search, during which he was found to be carrying a Stanley knife.
As a result of this, he was issued with a fixed penalty notice for £80.
According to leaflets like this, my friend is both a ‘thug’ and a ‘criminal’, after all he is one of the one in five who ‘got off’ without being dragged in court after he found to be carrying a knife.
As you might well have guessed already, there’s an important detail I’ve yet to mention that casts this story is a somewhat different light, and that detail happens to be the nature of his place of work…
…A local hardware store and builder’s merchants.
My friend isn’t a thug and he certainly isn’t a criminal. He’s was just unlucky enough to forget to take the Stanley knife he uses as work out his pocket on a day on which he ran into a couple of PCSOs on a day who were were on the make and looking for any opportunity the could find to dish out a few tickets.
In fact, he swears to this day that the two PCSOs actually watched him leaving the shop and that that’s the only reason he was pulled over and searched – after all he’s in his late twenties and was wearing his normal work clothes at the time.
So my question to Lynne Featherstone, in whose constituency this leaflet is being delivered is…
Would you like to explain to be my friend exactly why your party is calling him a ‘thug’ and ‘criminal’?
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