New polling puts Clegg in difficult position
A new poll to be released by Comres / Independent tonight will continue talks of a hung-parliament scenario and put Nick Clegg in a potential kingmaker position.
The Conservatives’ slide in the opinion polls continues in the latest survey by ComRes for The Independent. It shows the Tory lead down from seven points last month to five points, its lowest in our monthly series since December 2008.
Crucially, it suggests that Labour would be the biggest party in a hung parliament, with 17 more seats than the Tories.
That would give Nick Clegg a huge dilemma, since the Tories would have “won but lost” — won the battle for the popular vote but ended up with fewer seats than Labour because of our first-past-the-post system. The only deal in town would probably be a Lib-Lab agreement, with Clegg’s party supporting Labour in key Commons votes.
Our calculations suggest that even if the Tories and LibDems joined forces, they would be three seats short of an overall majority.
The other problem for Clegg is that Libdem voters themselves are more aligned with Labour voters by a two-to-one margin.

So any deal with the Tories would be hugely unpopular with the grassroots.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments
Groan.
I could never be a LD supporting the Tories, although I want a smaller government…
Evidence for Lib Dems supporting Labour by 2 to 1 margin please. Last I checked it was 50/50. 2 to 1 was valid in 2005 but then again Labour won a 60-seat majority then didn’t they?
Edward – nope, I’ll put in some findings from recent polls in the post.
I’ve changed the wording above too. I think it’s more truthful to say that Libdem voters are more aligned with Labour voters on issues and their perceptions than with Tory voters.
As you can see from the graph inserted above, they mostly agree with Labour voters on issues.
Labour values and Lib Dem values are essentially the same: fairness, equality, social justice, freedom. The Lib Dems place much more emphasis on freedom, and tend to distrust the state more than Labour, who place much more emphasis on equality.
@ Blanco
No, no…no!
Libs are more about equality! That’s why we’re in the middle-we realise people on the right and left side of society exist therefore we need to work intelligently to come up with the better solutions to wrok with this country.
Labour wants to control you with the state and the Tories with money. It’s either all for this lot but that isn’t how life works is it?
I’m a Lib Dem supporter. I’d certainly leave if ever we made a pact with the Tories. Hell, were it not for Labour’s awful record of government, totalitarianism/authoritarianism and betrayal of so many values the party claims it represents, I might even be considering voting for them.
Yeah George. Same.
Though me being angry with Labour got me into the Libs…I realised this is the right party for me. Though I really loathe the concept of parties!
That being said, it may be fair that he tries at first to make a pact with the Tories, if more people voted for them.
‘As you can see from the graph inserted above, they mostly agree with Labour voters on issues.’
With Labour *voters* though, not with New Labour itself (which is anything but Liberal).
Why make a pact with either Labour or Conservative rather than make temporary alliances on specific issues? Ally themselves with Labour on (some) economic issues but with the Tories against ID cards, etc.
‘That being said, it may be fair that he tries at first to make a pact with the Tories, if more people voted for them.’
That would at least be more consistant with their call for PR … but see my comment above.
Let’s face it, Clegg’s not going to be in a difficult position over this. He has already set out that whatever happens he will not concede on his core “themes” and that in such an event it won’t be down to parties but policies ruling the day.
We all know what will happen when it comes to king making anyway, and if the voters of Lib Dem’s *do* favour Tories 2 to 1 then who looks bad? Clegg if he plays it right looks like he’s got some Lib Dem power onto the agenda while ultimately supporting the least worse to the majority of his own party, is generally held to have done the right thing by Labour, and is lambasted (as usual) by the Tories whom only the Tories and a minority of the Lib Dem’s care about. Hardly difficult territory.
The LibDems got in bed with the Tories in Birmingham as far back as 2004 and have been enjoying a lie-in ever since. So, basically, I wouldn’t put it past them.
There is a distinction between voters and grassroots. If you piss off voters, you lose votes. Piss off your activist base and you lose your local machinery, and AFAIK we are more heavily dependent on local volunteers than the other two parties.
That being the case, this poll from LDV was interesting:
* 23% – Steer well clear of any form of negotiations or coalition with Labour or Conservatives
* 6% – Be ready to negotiate only with Labour on that basis
* 5% – Be ready to negotiate only with the Conservatives on that basis
* 63% – Be equally ready to negotiate with either Labour or the Conservatives on that basis
* 3% – Don’t know / No opinion
(sample 200)
claude,
“The LibDems got in bed with the Tories in Birmingham as far back as 2004 and have been enjoying a lie-in ever since. So, basically, I wouldn’t put it past them.”
I think you’ll find across the country various combinations of Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Independent/Other running councils. This is local politics where there is fixed terms, so a fuctioning council has to be produced, and of limited relevance in discussing parliment, where failure to produce a government leads to a new election. Bluntly, there is less requirement for a coalition, because there is no need to form a government.
And in Birmingham, it is in effect an anti-Labour council. I think there is at most one ward which is contested between Conservative and Liberal Democrat, and I’m not sure on that. Everywhere else Labour is the major opponent for each party – hence the natural coalition.
Sunny, you may be right about the balance of opinion about the grass roots – I haven’t asked them all myself. But the poll is not evidence at all.
Ask supporters of any party other than the Tories whether the Tories will make things better and they will say no. This does not indicate support for Labour.
Do another poll, asking whether Labour will make these things better, and the Lib Dems will say no again. This does not indicate support for the Conservatives.
Do a poll asking whether the Lib Dems would make things better, and you will find the Tories and Labour supporters saying no. This does not mean they support each other.
Try to understand that the Lib Dems are a separate party. And maybe take an interest in the Liberal agenda, rather than banging on about the hung parliament question – which is the MSM’s main tactics for mentioning us while avoiding talking about our politics at all.
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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RT @libcon New polling puts Clegg in difficult position http://bit.ly/dlJZc1
- Ross Clark
RT @libcon: New polling puts Clegg in difficult position http://bit.ly/9L779m
- Liberal Conspiracy
New polling puts Clegg in difficult position http://bit.ly/9L779m
- Paul Sandars
RT @libcon: New polling puts Clegg in difficult position http://bit.ly/9L779m
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