“Every time Guido Fawkes puts up another picture of the PM in the hope that he attracts more ridicule – the Labour Party’s poll ratings go up.”

I didn’t think I’d hear myself say something like this, but Guido put more GB pictures up.

Small rises and drops like this are typical for near GE times, but the not 13 years into incumbency! The Tories have had 5 years to suture agreements with the voter, and they’ve failed, it no longer matters if they win or lose, they’ve failed, they’ve failed.

There was also the point made in yesterday’s Graun, that in the runup to 1997 Labour were ferociously disciplined, not least because they still feared the Tories – despite the exhaustion of the Major government, they really feared the Tories pulling it out of the bag again – and so they took their task seriously.

These guys have convinced themselves that Brown is a joke and they can sleepwalk into power, and they’re acting accordingly.

That’s on the tactical level. On the political level, there’s an obvious disconnect between what Cameron’s trying to do with his centre-ground approach, and the need to keep throwing bones to natural Tories to energise the base. The Tory blogs are much more based around energising the base over Europe and immigration and such, but that does clash quite a bit with a national campaign based on Cuddly Dave and what an unthreatening figure he is.

Anecdotes? Okay well if you insist.

A lot of my friends are in the early to late 20s and most of them can’t stand the Tories.

They occasionally drink lattes certainly but there’s nothing particularly liberal metropolitan elite about them. They mostly do the same service sector grunt work I do and they see the Tories as bastards looking out for the wealthy and privileged, not them. Perhaps that me putting too much into their mouths, they see the Tories as against their mostly liberal sensibilities on most issues and unsure how they’re going to be any better than Labour.

There’s certainly no Keynesian appetite out there, but most of them wouldn’t know aggregate demand or NAIRU if it bit them on the arse so I think the arguments about the economy still sort of work in the Tories cutting hard and hurting versus Labour not cutting much and not hurting.

In 2005 against much imploring by me many of them voted Tory and have lived to regret their decision.

Labour are dreadful, truly awful in what they’re proud of when campaigning and even worse of what they may be ashamed of inpractice but they don’t come across as cruel in the way the Tories do.

Lord Tebbit kicked a child for crissake!

Reading the comments on the blogs are themselves highly informative. They go from outright denial to conspiracy theories. The media are conspiring against the Tories because a close election provides better copy. The polling firms are rigging the polls for the same reason. The Tories don’t want to win because of the state of the economy. The people being polled are lying to lull the government into calling an early election. What they are utterly incapable of understanding is not everyone sees the world through the prejudice of their eyes. Therefore, right-wing talking points do not work outside of the blogsphere. Sure everyone they speak to shares their worldview, but that’s because they live in a bubble. What people want to know is how a policy will affect them and not what a bunch of barely sane swivel-eyed online loons think of Gordon Brown.

The missing decimal point demonstrated just how out of touch they are with the majority of society. Anyone can make a mistake with a decimal point, however, it showed the pure unadulterated prejudice that they did not think the figures remarkable.

It was precisely the type of views expressed on ‘ attack-dog politics of right-wing blogs ‘ that made the Tories the ‘ nasty party ‘. It is the extreme views of the Tory core vote that the parliamentary party has been trying to detoxify themselves from for the last few years. What kind of political party would be embarrassed for the views of their base to be heard widely. Beyond David Dave Cameron there is a huge core of resentful, vindictive, spiteful, bile-filled activists who are unattractive to most people. Now as the polls tighten the same activists are telling Cameron he must become more like them. That seems counterproductive to me.

@leftoutside

Hello, you alright?

I learnt for the first time about Tebbit on David Mitchell’s new ok programme.

Consider this about DavidCam in latest edition of the staggers:

“Though he achieved a First in philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford, he appeared never to have heard of Keynes. Even now, his grasp of Keynesian theory is distinctly shaky. His rabble-rousing speech to the Conservative party conference last October suggested that he is unable to realise that public-sector deficits in a depression make the economy more productive than it would otherwise have been and the burden on future generations lighter – or that cutting the deficit before the economy has pulled out of depression merely delays recovery.”

Keynesian realism you’re after in the next 5 years? Not a chance, mate, not from this Tory government, the tosspots!

I have felt for a long time that the Conservative party supporters who post to various blog comments and Internet discussion forums do the Conservative party election campaign a lot of damage.

I think the reason for the Alf Garnett nature of the posters is simply that there are a lot of very lonely and bitter people in this world. Their inspiration comes from the Daily Mail then they browse the web looking for political discussions to post their bile to.

I feel sorry for them, but I’m glad of the fine work they do in damaging the prospect of a Conservative party victory at the general election.

I am a natural Labour supporter, even after all these years of betrayal with their racist approach to immigration as typified by Class A Cunt Liam Byrne, the illegal wars and so on.

I used to think that the way Labour have become, there’s no way I would vote for them and that it didn’t make a blind bit of difference if the Tories got in.

I have DaveCam’s crappy election “campaign” to thank for changing my mind – for convincing me that no matter how horrible or racist Labour become, no matter how despicable their online apologists become in explaining away or staying silent when starving women are beaten up by prison guards at Yarl’s Wood just so Labour can throw some meat to the tabloids, the Tories are even worse.

“I feel sorry for them (blog contributors), but I’m glad of the fine work they do in damaging the prospect of a Conservative party victory at the general election.”

IMO you give too little credit for the damage to Cameron and Osborne.

Only a small proportion of the voting public read blogs but recall that there has been a huge demographic shift compared with the past.

Not only do penisoners now outnumber the under 16s but in these times of low turnouts at elections, younger voters are less likely to vote, according to what I read. And many older voters do recall what happened in the 1980s and 1990s even if they don’t follow keynesian economics or what NAIRU relates to.

On the subject of Tory blogs, I’m bracing myself for Iain Dale’s telling of how wonderful Young Dave’s speech this afternoon was, and how everything in ToryLand ™ is now suitably rosy.

What Iain doesn’t understand is that a far greater part of the electorate is more concerned with Man U retaining the Carling Cup – even his fellow West Ham supporters – that give a flying foxtrot about the Tories’ Brighton jolly.

And when the Tory supporting blogs get outside their comfort zone, they display a cluelessness that is truly staggering – witness Paul Staines (let’s call him what he’s called, rather than pander to his vanity and call him “Guido”) making himself look like a grade 1 prat talking guff about the Falklands last week:

http://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2010/02/falklands-cant-pay-wont-fight-2.html

Also, the fall in the polls is doubly bad when you consider that the Tories have been spending heavily and their opponents, well, haven’t. And, hey, I haven’t even got round to mentioning the apparently inverse effect of the Murdoch press.

“Be careful what you wish for – it oftens comes true”. Another 1, 2. 3, or 4 years of Labour incompetence under Pa McRuin or his successors, will make sure the UK goes down the same route as Uncle Bob Ebagum’s Zimbabwe.

um – until the polls give way to The Poll, I think chickens should not be counted. They are still focussing brilliantly in their marginals, apparently, and have rather a lot of wonga. If you are able to write this in mid May, all kudos to you

@6. Patrick James

My thinking too!

Reading much of the wretched, ill thought out, racist, hysterical, over simplistic diatribes that passes for Tory comment on most blogs, I’ve been thinking that a key tactic for both Labour and the Lib Dems would be to somehow take a printout of the comment threads of any of these blogs (Paul Staines one would do) and stick it in a poster campaign up and down the land to show the public – 99pc of whom don’t read blogs – exactly the sort of contempt they are held in by these people.

@9. It’s already started. Apparently according to all the Tory sources Dave’s speech today is up there with the Gettysburg address, Martin Luther King and the preamble to the US constitution as being the most amazing speech ever made – well, since Dave’s last speech in fact!

Off topic, but have you read Rod Liddle’s latest crayon scribbling in The Sunday Times sports section?

Rod goes to great length to tell us that he is not a racist, so if he and his mates want to shout pikey at another teams fan’s then that is fine. Lovely people Rod hangs out with. Apparently his mate will be in the pub with his 2 year old kid wearing a t-shirt with pikey written on it.

Rod could have saved his breath and just wrote ” I am a Tosser.” Much shorter and straight to the point. How anyone thought this moron should edit one of the few liberal newspapers in the UK is very odd.

Troll ““Be careful what you wish for – it oftens comes true”. Another 1, 2. 3, or 4 years of Labour incompetence under Pa McRuin or his successors, will make sure the UK goes down the same route as Uncle Bob Ebagum’s Zimbabwe.”

ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Shorter troll, ” I have just been to troll central and picked up my talking points…..

And they are the same talking points I had last week, and last month and last year.”

This is starting to look increasingly desperate:

“David Cameron ordered his party to ‘get up and fight’ to prevent five more years of Gordon Brown as told the Tories’ spring conference that he now has the confidence to run Britain.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7044400.ece

Try the Peter Brookes cartoon: Henry Moore Exhibition Opens:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/photo_galleries/article5845863.ece?slideshowPopup=true&articleId=5845863&nSlide=4&sectionName=PhotoGalleries

“Be careful what you wish for – it oftens comes true”. Another 1, 2. 3, or 4 years of Labour incompetence under Pa McRuin or his successors, will make sure the UK goes down the same route as Uncle Bob Ebagum’s Zimbabwe.

I really hope you’re doorstepping for the Tories!

I think these polls are bullshit.

My view is that tory voters are not telling the truth…… as usual, just so that it looks as if they are not doing so well. What they want is to scare their voters to coming out in droves on election day.

Of course there is a danger in this trick, and that is the tory leadership may start to panic, which will make things worse for them.

@11: ” until the polls give way to The Poll, I think chickens should not be counted”

Wise words. Reflect on the 1992 election – a Labour lead in the polls and then that Sheffield Rally:

“So what did cost Labour the 1992 election? Worcester has no doubt that it was the Sheffield rally, just eight days before polling day. On the eve of the rally, three polls came out, showing a seven-point lead, a six-point lead and a four-point lead for Labour. That day, Labour peaked.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/199812110020

To get a taste of why the rally generated such an adverse reaction, try this BBC video clip:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/in_depth/election_battles/1992qt_sheffield.stm

If the Conservatives don’t win big which is very likely the really interesting question is what will it do to the Party……in reality, it could be a more crushing blow than losing in 97…..the right will be in open revolt and will kick Cameron out….all sorts of things become possible…..

Carl – heh, I agree! Paul Staines I know you’re reading this – please carry on putting up those pics!

Splintered Sunrise: These guys have convinced themselves that Brown is a joke and they can sleepwalk into power, and they’re acting accordingly.

Agreed.

Bob B: Only a small proportion of the voting public read blogs but recall that there has been a huge demographic shift compared with the past.

Agreed, but the point is that the Tory strategy is heavily influenced by right-wing blogs say, and that’s made them think that they can assume this is in the bag.

Tim :Also, the fall in the polls is doubly bad when you consider that the Tories have been spending heavily and their opponents, well, haven’t. And, hey, I haven’t even got round to mentioning the apparently inverse effect of the Murdoch press.

Yup, and yup.

Giles, Darrell – I still think the Tories will win. I’m not counting any chickens at all. At the last minute I think voters will decide they don’t actually like GB (and he does have low personal ratings) and the Tories will get by on a small majority.

That’s fine with me – I just didn’t want a massive Tory landslide as was predicted earlier

You guys catch the poll showing that, whatever the outcome of the election, about two thirds of the country will be fucking miserable about it?

@ 19. Darrell:

I have thought about the consequences of the Conservative party losing the election. Like you I think it would be a much greater blow than the ’97 defeat.

In fact I still feel that a hung parliament is more likely than a Labour victory. However I think a hung parliament would finish Cameron off.

My feeling is that a hung parliament or Conservative losing the election would send them off to the right in politics.

The Conservative party actually believes it is being liberal and progressive in this election, amazing though that is, and if it fails to win it the right wing of the party (which is the majority of the party) will say that “we tried being nice, now it is time to get back to being nasty”.

Of course, as all too often, you are right – the Blogosphere Nasty Party is the Achilles’ heel of the Tory party.

The Telegraph, Times, Spectator comment streams are full of the bile of BNP, UKIP and ex-pat folk who don’t even vote Tory if they vote at all.

They are the products of Ayn Rand’s naïf neo-fascism. Everything their fathers had fought against.

By trying to pander to the obsessives of the baby boomer generation, 1939-1972, the Tories have sabotaged their own electoral chances.

They should read The Pinch – how the baby boomers stole the future.

It is by Tory David Willetts.

By focussing on the Blogosphere Nasty Party, the Tories destroyed English Conservatism.

The vast majority of people don’t use the web, except to email at most. The Tories have ignored the small c Conservative voter to pander to Blogosphere Nasty Party.

In the real world most English conservatives are mild mannered, kindly and open to debate. The BNP is closed to debate.

It is ironic that the web, which could have brought together English conservatives, through its sheer nastiness has turned them away.

It is why the Blogosphere NP’s personal attacks on Gordon Brown have had the opposite effect.

But then Tory extremist ideologues have been termed the ‘stupid’ party. They put off, by their nastiness, their own natural supporters.

Hannan’s vitriol and Farage’s sheer rudeness, plus the personal attacks on Brown will cost Cameron this election.

By focussing on the Blogosphere Nasty Party, the Tories destroyed English Conservatism.

That died long before there was ever a Blogosphere.

Sally@13, you are probably right that Rod Liddle was the wrong man for the Independent job – but in his column that you mention, he was absolutely right to say that it was stupid for his friend to be arrested and charged for using the word ”pikey” about Gillingham football fans.
Maybe you just don’t get the football culture.
http://74.125.153.132/search?q=cache:GJATO9O-A08J:www.spiked-online.com/index.php%3F/site/article/5803/+spiked+duleep+gillingham+'pikeys'&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Sally, if the guy who wrote what I just linked to wrote that on here, would he be a troll too?
Or could he just be a person with a different opinion to you?

No, Spiked writers are still trolls, they’re just taken a bit more seriously than more run-of-the-mill thugs.

Let’s be honest; any politician who listens to blogs is a fool. Bloggers generally represent marginal (sometimes extremist) views, therefore listening to them distorts the perspective of an issue.