Over the last week I’ve been working like the clappers, far too busy to look at blogs and am astonished at how much more I managed to get done than when I talk here.

So, I think it’s time to escape from looking at sites like this before it develops into a full blown addiction, consuming me and turning me into a blogger.

Arguing with people here has been enjoyable, but on reflection our opinions are deeply entrenched and the conversations don’t change anything – so it’s no less of a waste of time than sitting on the sofa playing on an XBox.

On reflection I’d rather use the time to work and earn some more money than discuss with you how I should be taxed or give it away to ‘deserving’ causes.

Enjoy the election.

WIshing you well.

rumpypumpy

“Across the country as a whole, it says 57% of new jobs created during the period 1997-2007 were state or ‘para-state’ — dependent on government spending.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7009695.ece

I dug a little deeper and came upon this:

“Public sector employment in the United Kingdom as a proportion of total employment was 20.4 per cent in June 2005. This was still below the June 1992 figure of 23.1 per cent but above the low point of 19.2 per cent in June 1999.”
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1292

This shows what has happened to public sector employment from 2005 onwards:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=407

Employment in the banks now owned by taxpayers count as public sector jobs.

The Labour Party leadership has, I think, been talking to its base a bit recently – or at least trying not to offend them.

It’s not that long since they were trying to win the Daily Mail vote by blasting people on benefits as scroungers and miscreants, sporadically announcing immigration crackdowns, going on about ‘rebalancing’ the justice system, and demonising the wearing of Muslim dress as the greatest threat to Britishness since the Norman conquest.

Recently they seem to have dropped most of this, perhaps realising that it’s completely futile, since this group of voters hate them permanently, and will never ever believe they are cracking down on any of these things, no matter what they announce or actually do. They’ve also almost entirely stopped talking about their programmes to marketise public services, and cut back considerably on public displays of harmony with the CBI – and instead started warbling improbably about the merits of co-operatives.

It’s working, to some extent. But, as you say, while it may prevent a landslide, it’s not an obvious winning strategy, at least at this late stage…

While I certainly regard Blair’s Third Way stuff as very expendable garbage, I don’t regard Keynes and keynesian economics as garbage.

Try Skidelsky: Keynes – The Return of the Master (Penguin Books, 2009)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2009/aug/30/keynes-return-master-robert-skidelsky

IMO this is a modern, accessible academic text on macroeconomics and it’s by one of them foreigners at a Swiss uni. For a start, it puts an emphasis throughout on evidence-based policy:

Manfred Gartner: Macroeconomics (Financial Times, 3rd ed 2009)
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Macroeconomics-Manfred-Gartner/dp/0273717901/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1267096862&sr=1-1

It’s those days when Labour were polling in the low 20s that now look like an aberration. And it’s worth remembering that the new and improved fabulous Labour polling share is still roughly that attained by John Major and William Hague…

As a supplicant to 4 above, it may be that the Tory lead was inflated before due to Labour voters saying they weren’t going to vote. Now the election is coming along the Labour vote is hardening.

This is, I suspect, the key point here. The Tory share in the opinion polls has wobbled around the 38-42 mark since May 2009 – with a couple of blips along the way. They’re still there. The real movement has been for Labour. They’ve improved from about 25 in October to about 32 now.

Why has the Labour share increased? Well, they’ve stopped actively trying to sabotage themselves for a start. They’ve also given up trying to govern – there are no new policies being put into effect, so there are fewer chances to balls everything up. They’ve also tightened up their pr skills – the return of the delightful Campbell and Whelan. Ultimately, however, if the Tories stay at 38-40 they’re going to win the election.

Whilst I would like a hung parliament, I still say the £10 I put on Cameron winning by 20-50 seats back in 2007 was a good bet.

Whether people realise it or not – most simply dismiss it, especially the apologists of the former PM Thatcher, many, many people grew up under her reign, add to that what came afterwards.

Cameron, to me, has fallen foul of a simple premise. He made plans – a battle plan. All he has is the yes men saying that all is fine, we are a shoe-in, Dave. But what happens to plans in battles – you have to forget them as soon as battle is joined. The Tories have broken ground too early. Not only that – they believed that once broken everything would go their way. It hasn’t – and gleefully I watch as they snatch, for this is what a hung parliament will be, defeat from the jaws of victory.

Relate to ConHome – the public really, really detest Blair – with a passion. Dave trying to be Blair II is to his detriment, he should have been what he pretended to be.

Seeing the right implode is such a joyous thing. If any, if there should be any, left-leaning press out there – they should exploit every hole possible and make the Tories explain every policy document going. The left then should say what they are going to do to counter the new Thatcherism, and this time stick to it. Though that isn’t going to be the case with Mandleson and Balls anywhere near cabinet posts.

They’ve seen what they’re going to have to deal with and being well educated types they know that there’s no “F” in “way”.

As in there’s no f-in way we want to be in charge anymore.

True enough though the Bank of England is predicting a return to subdued inflation after the current hike in the rate and that means continued low interest rates ahead.

Economic prospects will greatly depend on what happens in the Eurozone, which is the UK’s main export market. Recent reports indicate that the Eurozone economy – especially the German economy – is flagging with the real risk of a double-dip recession there.

Reports about the banks here say, overall, that bank lending to business remains at a low ebb so it’s difficult to be optimistic about an early pick up in business investment. If consumers are saving more and the government is cutting spending while bank lending is constraining business investment then exports are our only hope of additional monetary demand.

What I find more than a little strange is George Osborne’s continuing focus on (obsession with?) the UK’s fiscal deficit and the need for public spending cuts in the immediate future regardless and without mentioning the state of the Eurozone economy and what is happening with bank lending here.

I suspect that his personal ambitions and partisan instincts render him completely incapable of producing a balanced assessment of economic prospects and the policy options. It’s becoming crystal clear that he is personally committed to making substantial public spending cuts as soon as he can.

I have just recieved a leaflet from our Conservative PPC … it is full of falsehoods. For example blaming the government for trying to impose landraise sites in this rural area… government doesn’t control landraise proposals.. it is the Tory county council that is responsible… and the PPC hasn’t even bothered to proof read his own leaflet adequately, which seems just typical of the national Tories.

People are not stupid and even if they don’t know the facts, they can feel that the presentation is just not quite believable.

Voters may not like nulabour, but the Tory frontbench come across as lightweight and their policies and statements, simplistic or improbable.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/feb/24/tea-party-protests-liberals

Half of them are probably UKIPers, one of ConHome’s weaknesses is that it attracts a lot of very angry people who can be disruptive.

“A doctor who falsified a prescription for a cocaine-addicted escort girl has been suspended for six months by the General Medical Council (GMC).

“Adam Osborne, 33, brother of shadow chancellor George Osborne, admitted ‘inappropriate’ behaviour.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8534938.stm

“Steven Major, head of global fixed income research at HSBC, said: ‘The worries over the UK have receded because it is a strong economy with its own currency. Fears that the UK will lose its triple-A status and not be able to find investors to buy its debt have been overdone.’”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ba5e8e6-2180-11df-830e-00144feab49a.html

So much for George Osborne with all his gloom and the imperative need for steep spending cuts this year regardless of the risk of a double-dip recession because of the weak Eurozone economy.

So he has have started to show his real colours over the last few months, and boy it ain’t pretty. Funny thing is it plays well with the base.

I still think he will win because people hate Brown. But it would be funny if he does not win because it will go down as the one of biggest political failures in history considerring all the advantages he has had.