Try the howler over the decimal point:

“But the Tories said the misplacing of a decimal point made ‘no difference’ to claims Labour had let down the poor.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8515798.stm

A new Conservative policy for educashun: “Decimal points don’t matter”

- It’s the anti-Gordon Brown sentiment that counts.

He was doing ok when he didn’t had to explain his policies. For quite a while “I’m Dave, vote for me I am not Gordon” worked. Now as we get nearer the election people are getting fed up waiting for him to explain his policies and when he does, it is far from impressive. His electoral campaign so far has been nothing short of a disaster, they couldn’t even organise a smear campaign on Brown over bullying.

The Tory right have bit their lip for so long that now as defeat seems to be getting dragged from the jaws of victory, will they be able to stay quiet between now and the election? A few more points away from the Tories or towards Labour will test their rice paper thin loyalty. Once that goes, everything will be up for grabs.

http://redrag1.blogspot.com/

Wild prediction time: hung parliament on May 6th, Tory Party needs scalps and gets rid of Call Me Dave, Brown exits to work for, erm, charidee, Miliband et al stage their much belated coup of Labour, election called for Sept, Labour take power for another 4 years.

Oh, and we invade Iran in 2013.

It is very curious. Cameron’s had several years to get his policies together. I can understand the strategic advantage of keeping quiet about them until the best point (clearly the beginning of 2010) and then releasing them one every two weeks so that the Conservatives set the agenda. The problem for them, is that the Tories have truly screwed that up. They could have set the agenda, but as soon as their policies started to come out the public rejected them. (What happened to all that focus grouping?) Desperate to seize the agenda, the Tories then started making up policies on the hoof, and this has made them seem chaotic and disorganised.

The Press, suitably unimpressed with the Tory policies have sought to find other ways to beat the Labour party. Yet the public stubbornly show increasing support for the government. I think the time will come (I reckon it will be the beginning of April) when the mainstream Press will find that they cannot avoid takinjg a deeper look at the Tory policies and shine some light on what those policies will really mean: cuts in funding to NHS hospitals, cuts in funding to state schools, huge cuts in public service jobs [*] and a rise in VAT to 25%.

[*] I think that local authorities will be cut extremely savagely because, well, Cameron has not said a peep about them.

As a long-standing Tory Home reader/troll, I predicted that UKIP would do well in the Euros when my mates said they were going to implode, because so many semi-detatched Tories saw a chance to express how much they hate Camoron without letting Brown get a victory.

I now sense that the mood is one in which there will be relatively few ‘kippers at the general election, with a host of reluctant Camoron voters getting him victory but then slagging him off over Europe, immigration, etc. etc. Believe me, it’ll be a great spectator sport to watch right-whingers turn on a Tory government.

You really can get the mood of the party there. I’d say it’s much better than Liberal Democrat Voice when it comes to taking the temperature of activists & what have you. I’ve even got my likes & dislikes among the commentors now. Though out of politeness I will not nme the ones I regard as twats.

People aren’t stupid, and can generally see that the Tories are more of the same, so why have more of the same that will relish in the cutting of public services?

Agree with Lee Griffin. Have the Tories made the case that if you work in the public sector, live in the North or aren’t yet a multi-millionaire you would be better off voting for them? I’d argue not.

I also think that the ‘none of the above’ mob are going to run away with this one.

I tend to agree with Richard Blogger in his first paragraph. The Conservatives had the right strategy — drip policy ideas in the months before the election — but have failed to deliver the strategy coherently.

However, I think that there is a bit more, which partially relates to Sunny’s points 2 and 3. The initial rebranding of Cameron was successful to some potential voters, who are probably the vocal switchers. But the rebranding exercise was never completed, thus we observe the incoherent policy switches.

There is no Cameron narrative, so that people who have not followed the policy presentation week by week might say “I guess the Tories would do this”. There is no underlying theme. Even those who have read the press releases cannot predict: Is he liberal or authoritarian today, or has he found some money for a sexy project in the national budget that he needs to cut?

Cameron does not have a story to tell: he has a bunch of policy proposals created by groups who don’t talk to one another. Does he have enough time to turn it around?

Cue some Tory troll pointing to politicalbettings untested Angus Reid poll of maeginals which may or may not show the Tories gaining a zillion seats on five different continents!

@2: “Wild prediction time: hung parliament on May 6th,”

What’s more, even Michael Heseltine agrees:

“David Cameron is facing the nightmare of a minority government in a hung parliament, Lord Heseltine has warned.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-are-heading-for-hung-parliament-warns-heseltine-1906482.html

And Lord Butler, a former head of the civil service, has issued a statement about preparing for contingencies:

“The public is largely confused about what might happen in the event of a hung Parliament, a former head of the civil service has said.

“Lord Butler told MPs it was a ‘popular myth’ Gordon Brown would have to resign if Labour failed to secure an overall majority after the general election. . .

“Sir Gus O’Donnell, the current Cabinet secretary, said there was a need for as ‘much clarity as possible’ about the issue.

“The lack of a recent precedent for hung Parliaments meant few civil servants had any experience of dealing with them, he said.”

“‘Can we assume that the civil service is up and ready for this? No.’

“But he said he was doing a ‘lot of work for providing for all possible outcomes’ after the election.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8533855.stm

I wonder whether the financial markets have factored this in yet.

Call me Dave was fine as long as he was the new, even greener the green, loves the NHS, hates bankers, new man, but that did not play well with his base.

So he has have started to show his real colours over the last few months, and boy it ain’t pretty. Funny thing is it plays well with the base.

I still think he will win because people hate Brown. But it would be funny if he does not win because it will go down as the one of biggest political failures in history considerring all the advantages he has had.

Quote from today’s FT:

“Steven Major, head of global fixed income research at HSBC, said: ‘The worries over the UK have receded because it is a strong economy with its own currency. Fears that the UK will lose its triple-A status and not be able to find investors to buy its debt have been overdone.’”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ba5e8e6-2180-11df-830e-00144feab49a.html

So much for George Osborne with all his gloom and the imperative need for steep spending cuts this year regardless of the risk of a double-dip recession because of the weak Eurozone economy.

Update from this evening’s news:

“A doctor who falsified a prescription for a cocaine-addicted escort girl has been suspended for six months by the General Medical Council (GMC).

“Adam Osborne, 33, brother of shadow chancellor George Osborne, admitted ‘inappropriate’ behaviour.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8534938.stm

“The sight of activists panicking and subjecting Cameron to angry tirades is a joy to behold.”

Half of them are probably UKIPers, one of ConHome’s weaknesses is that it attracts a lot of very angry people who can be disruptive.

Off topic Sunny, but you should put something up like this for your 3rd LC mission statement post:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/feb/24/tea-party-protests-liberals

As a supplicant to 4 above, it may be that the Tory lead was inflated before due to Labour voters saying they weren’t going to vote. Now the election is coming along the Labour vote is hardening.

Gus O’Donnell, cabinet secretary and head of the civil service, on what happens if there’s a hung Parliament after the election:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/24/whitehall-gus-odonnell-hung-parliament-purdah

UKIP voters may decide to vote Tory now. The Indy talks about house prices facing double dip. Average house price was £164K . If average wage is £25k. 4x average wage plus 10% deposit equates to £110K. If house prices fell to a more sustainable levels from £64k to £110 k is £54K reduction or 33%. So far house prices have down aboubt 20%, this would mean there is a potential further decline of 13%. H Mc Rae of the Indy has been talking abou the return of inflation. Stephen King , Chief Economist of HSBC in the Monday Indy pointed out that paying off our debt may prevent much growth. If after the election , the markets do not consider there is credile policy to reduce the debt , then we could be trouble. A combination of inflation and a period of repaying our debts is unlikley to be a good basis for economic growth. If a company is repaying debts , then it does not have the money to buy equipment.

It is extraordinary how incompetent the Tories are being.. even with a right wing media, the reporting cannot hide the inconsistencies and the facile spin.

I have just recieved a leaflet from our Conservative PPC … it is full of falsehoods. For example blaming the government for trying to impose landraise sites in this rural area… government doesn’t control landraise proposals.. it is the Tory county council that is responsible… and the PPC hasn’t even bothered to proof read his own leaflet adequately, which seems just typical of the national Tories.

People are not stupid and even if they don’t know the facts, they can feel that the presentation is just not quite believable.

Voters may not like nulabour, but the Tory frontbench come across as lightweight and their policies and statements, simplistic or improbable.

@17: “A combination of inflation and a period of repaying our debts is unlikley to be a good basis for economic growth.”

True enough though the Bank of England is predicting a return to subdued inflation after the current hike in the rate and that means continued low interest rates ahead.

Economic prospects will greatly depend on what happens in the Eurozone, which is the UK’s main export market. Recent reports indicate that the Eurozone economy – especially the German economy – is flagging with the real risk of a double-dip recession there.

Reports about the banks here say, overall, that bank lending to business remains at a low ebb so it’s difficult to be optimistic about an early pick up in business investment. If consumers are saving more and the government is cutting spending while bank lending is constraining business investment then exports are our only hope of additional monetary demand.

What I find more than a little strange is George Osborne’s continuing focus on (obsession with?) the UK’s fiscal deficit and the need for public spending cuts in the immediate future regardless and without mentioning the state of the Eurozone economy and what is happening with bank lending here.

I suspect that his personal ambitions and partisan instincts render him completely incapable of producing a balanced assessment of economic prospects and the policy options. It’s becoming crystal clear that he is personally committed to making substantial public spending cuts as soon as he can.

Isn’t it obvious? They’re trying to throw the election.

They’ve seen what they’re going to have to deal with and being well educated types they know that there’s no “F” in “way”.

As in there’s no f-in way we want to be in charge anymore.

19. Bob B. I cannot see the large number of white collar non-technical workers Labour have employed in the last 13 years doing much to improve our industrial capability. If Labour had greatly increased the number of craftsmen, technicians, scientists and charted engineer employed by government perhaps we would have the people to design, build and operate windfarms, wave powered generation , high speed rail links etc. In much of the Uk , the salaries, pensions, holiday entitlement, few hours worked are so generous in the state sector that many private firms , especially the smaller ones cannot compete. Over the last 20 years , UK manufacturing has had to become lean- layers of non-productive staff have been removed . Consequently the UK has a small lean and often high value manufacturing capability ; it is time the bloated white collar non-technical administrative state sector followed suite or retrained and obtained the technical skills required for industrial employment.

It could be, as the election moves ever closer, people are realising what a Tory government will be like.

Whether people realise it or not – most simply dismiss it, especially the apologists of the former PM Thatcher, many, many people grew up under her reign, add to that what came afterwards.

Cameron, to me, has fallen foul of a simple premise. He made plans – a battle plan. All he has is the yes men saying that all is fine, we are a shoe-in, Dave. But what happens to plans in battles – you have to forget them as soon as battle is joined. The Tories have broken ground too early. Not only that – they believed that once broken everything would go their way. It hasn’t – and gleefully I watch as they snatch, for this is what a hung parliament will be, defeat from the jaws of victory.

Relate to ConHome – the public really, really detest Blair – with a passion. Dave trying to be Blair II is to his detriment, he should have been what he pretended to be.

Seeing the right implode is such a joyous thing. If any, if there should be any, left-leaning press out there – they should exploit every hole possible and make the Tories explain every policy document going. The left then should say what they are going to do to counter the new Thatcherism, and this time stick to it. Though that isn’t going to be the case with Mandleson and Balls anywhere near cabinet posts.

Its just the way opinion polls fluctuate and the way that historically parties move a bit closer come the election.

Whilst I would like a hung parliament, I still say the £10 I put on Cameron winning by 20-50 seats back in 2007 was a good bet.

As a supplicant to 4 above, it may be that the Tory lead was inflated before due to Labour voters saying they weren’t going to vote. Now the election is coming along the Labour vote is hardening.

This is, I suspect, the key point here. The Tory share in the opinion polls has wobbled around the 38-42 mark since May 2009 – with a couple of blips along the way. They’re still there. The real movement has been for Labour. They’ve improved from about 25 in October to about 32 now.

Why has the Labour share increased? Well, they’ve stopped actively trying to sabotage themselves for a start. They’ve also given up trying to govern – there are no new policies being put into effect, so there are fewer chances to balls everything up. They’ve also tightened up their pr skills – the return of the delightful Campbell and Whelan. Ultimately, however, if the Tories stay at 38-40 they’re going to win the election.

The tory strategy hasn’t moved on from the Blair period. Call-Me-Dave (like Nick Clegg) was a nice smiley young face to outblair Blair. Similarly, vague policy suggestions aped the fatuous newspeak Third Way bollocks. All very easy in a healthy economic climate where everyone’s policy was a variant of steady-as-she-goes. Now things are a bit stickier some real substance is needed and all variants of Third Way bollocks are found wanting. Tory instinct is to revert to type, increasingly obvious now the shiny fake paintjob is beginning to flake off. Its pleasing that enough people seem unconvinced.

25 – Fine, but the phenomenon you have to explain is not slumping Tory polls, but increasing Labour ones. All things being equal, it is more likely that this is due to Labour and not the Tories.

It’s those days when Labour were polling in the low 20s that now look like an aberration. And it’s worth remembering that the new and improved fabulous Labour polling share is still roughly that attained by John Major and William Hague…

“all variants of Third Way bollocks are found wanting.”

While I certainly regard Blair’s Third Way stuff as very expendable garbage, I don’t regard Keynes and keynesian economics as garbage.

Try Skidelsky: Keynes – The Return of the Master (Penguin Books, 2009)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2009/aug/30/keynes-return-master-robert-skidelsky

IMO this is a modern, accessible academic text on macroeconomics and it’s by one of them foreigners at a Swiss uni. For a start, it puts an emphasis throughout on evidence-based policy:

Manfred Gartner: Macroeconomics (Financial Times, 3rd ed 2009)
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Macroeconomics-Manfred-Gartner/dp/0273717901/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1267096862&sr=1-1

Tim J (24): Good point.

The Labour Party leadership has, I think, been talking to its base a bit recently – or at least trying not to offend them.

It’s not that long since they were trying to win the Daily Mail vote by blasting people on benefits as scroungers and miscreants, sporadically announcing immigration crackdowns, going on about ‘rebalancing’ the justice system, and demonising the wearing of Muslim dress as the greatest threat to Britishness since the Norman conquest.

Recently they seem to have dropped most of this, perhaps realising that it’s completely futile, since this group of voters hate them permanently, and will never ever believe they are cracking down on any of these things, no matter what they announce or actually do. They’ve also almost entirely stopped talking about their programmes to marketise public services, and cut back considerably on public displays of harmony with the CBI – and instead started warbling improbably about the merits of co-operatives.

It’s working, to some extent. But, as you say, while it may prevent a landslide, it’s not an obvious winning strategy, at least at this late stage…

With all the stuff in the news about bloated public sector employment, I was a bit suprised to come upon this from a Google search:

“Across the country as a whole, it says 57% of new jobs created during the period 1997-2007 were state or ‘para-state’ — dependent on government spending.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7009695.ece

I dug a little deeper and came upon this:

“Public sector employment in the United Kingdom as a proportion of total employment was 20.4 per cent in June 2005. This was still below the June 1992 figure of 23.1 per cent but above the low point of 19.2 per cent in June 1999.”
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1292

This shows what has happened to public sector employment from 2005 onwards:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=407

Employment in the banks now owned by taxpayers count as public sector jobs.

Dear LiberalConspirators,

Over the last week I’ve been working like the clappers, far too busy to look at blogs and am astonished at how much more I managed to get done than when I talk here.

So, I think it’s time to escape from looking at sites like this before it develops into a full blown addiction, consuming me and turning me into a blogger.

Arguing with people here has been enjoyable, but on reflection our opinions are deeply entrenched and the conversations don’t change anything – so it’s no less of a waste of time than sitting on the sofa playing on an XBox.

On reflection I’d rather use the time to work and earn some more money than discuss with you how I should be taxed or give it away to ‘deserving’ causes.

Enjoy the election.

WIshing you well.

rumpypumpy

On the evidence of the diminishing lead of the Conservatives in the polls in recent weeks, it seems the prospect of a change in government has frightened many voters, especially with George Osborne stomping around calling for sweeping public spending cuts regardless. This must all be rather disconcerting for Conservatives with their campaign slogan: Vote for Change.