Last week, I looked at the some of the evidence for the apparent relationship between socio-economic deprivation and conception/abortion rates for English local authorities and arrived at two main conclusions:

1) There is a strong positive correlation between deprivation and conception rates in under 18′s – the more deprived the area, the higher the conception rate.

2) There is, when you exclude London, a solid negative correlation between deprivation and abortion rates – the less deprived the are, the more likely a pregnant teenager is to terminate their pregnancy.

One question that came up several times in comments was, inevitably, that of why England has the highest conception and abortion rates in Europe.

Part of the answer lies in the fact that one follows the other, if you measure both in rates per 1,000 teenagers but that’s only part of the story.

Relative to much of Europe, England has a fairly modest rate of abortions relative to the annual number of conceptions amongst teenagers.

In England, around 40% of pregnant teenagers opt for a termination.

By comparison, in Sweden, 82% of pregnant teenagers opt for a termination and the relative abortion rates are also higher across the whole of Scandinavia, much of Central and Eastern Europe and, perhaps surprisingly, in both Italy and Spain, where Catholicism appears to present few active barriers to the 58% of pregnant Italian teenagers (and 52% of pregnant Spanish teenagers) who choose a termination ahead of early motherhood.

Moreover, its perhaps a little unfair to focus all our attention on England here, when much the same pattern of high general conception and abortion rates but moderate relative abortion rates is to be found in all the countries of the so-called Anglosphere (UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand).

Whatever it is that makes the UK different to most of the rest of the EU, in terms of it teenage conception and abortion rates, applies just as readily to all those countries as well, and especially to the United States, which has – by some distance – the highest conception and abortion rates of any developed nation.

Europe – A General Picture

What I found was a relatively mild positive correlation to the Gini coefficient for both the general conception and birth rates (Pearson coefficients = 019 & 0.24) together with a similarly modest negative correlation to the relative abortion rate (Pearson coefficient = -0.21). Plotting GDP per capital against the same data, however, gave up a much stronger set of negative correlations for general conception and birth rates (-0.36 and -0.54) and a marked positive correlation with the relative abortion rate of 0.58.

Economic conditions do, therefore, make a difference across Europe as they do in the UK and in much the same manner – higher conception and birth rates in less well-off countries with greater levels of income inequality and higher abortion rates, relative to conceptions, in countries with low levels of income inequality and a moderate to high GDP per capital.

Europe – Regional Patterns

To dispose of the one pattern that appears to be least relevant to England, much of Southern Europe (Portugal, Greece, the Western Balkans) follows a pattern in which there is relatively low income inequality and GDP per capita coupled with low conception and abortion rates.

This is typically explained in terms of the greater influence of orthodox religion – Catholicism in the West, the Greek/Eastern Orthodox churches in the East – and of the traditional family, not to mention a significant degree of cultural sexism. However, another noticeable difference between these countries at the rest of the EU is the relatively low degree of urbanisation. Around 36-37% of the population in these countries live in rural communities, which tend to be much more cohesive and tight knit than their urban counterparts.

What this suggest, overall, is that the primary limiting factor on teenage conceptions in these countries lies in the overall impact of early, unmarried, conception on the individual’s social capital within their local community, in which religion, family and culture play a significant part.

The two patterns that are relevant are to found in Scandinavia, which has a high level of GDP per capita and low Gini coefficient to go with a low conception and high relative abortion rate (much higher than that found in England) and the Baltic States and Eastern European states bordering the Black Sea rather than the Mediterranean.

The Scandinavian pattern, which suggests a largely post-industrial economy based on high-tech industries and strong service sector is very similar to that found in many of the least deprived areas of England, the majority of which are to be found in the South-East region, which also has a similar pattern of low conception rates and high relative abortion rates.

As for Baltic/Eastern European pattern, this seems indicative of failed/failing post-Communist industrial economy of the kind that produces a low GDP per capita. moderate to high Gini coefficient (relative to other EU countries) and high general conception and abortion rates.

The bad news for us is that this pattern looks very similar to the pattern found in many of the most deprived local authorities in England and particularly those serving urban areas in which manufacturing was, at one time, the major local employer.

Lessons from Labour Market Statistics

Having noted similarities between Scandinavia and least deprived areas of England (and the Baltic/Eastern Europe and the most deprived areas) I thought it work taking a look at some of the area-based labour market statistics for the UK to see whether there were any relevant correlations that might support the hypothesis that what we’re seeing here is a tale of two very different economies operating within the UK.

The tables below list the positive and negative correlations for categories of economic activity and for the employment market ‘mix’ for all women, not just teenagers.

Economic Activity

Local Economic Mix

There’s a clear class divide in which conception rates are highest (and relative abortion rates are lowest) in areas which still rely on manufacturing, in addition to low-wage service sector jobs, with the opposite picture emerging for areas in which the economy is skewed towards white collar and professional employment.

Likewise, higher rates of self-employment and full-time employment are correlated with lower conception and higher relative abortion rates.

That said, what’s important here is that these correlations all relate, with one exception, to the data for all women and just just for teenagers or for age group just above them (20-24).

In other words: teenage conceptions are higher (and the relative abortion rate lower) in those areas of England in which all the local labour market has to offer a sizeable number of women is low-wage, relatively menial, employment, if it can offer that at all.

Teenage pregnancy rates in England are being driven by poverty, but there’s more to it than just hard cash – it’s the poverty of aspiration engendered by the socio-economic conditions that young women see all around them that’s creating the problem, such as it is.

Final Thoughts

I finished up my last post by quoting the abstract on an academic study which suggested that teenage mothers are vilified for resisting “the typical life trajectory of their middle-class peers which conforms to the current governmental objectives of economic growth through higher education and increased female workforce participation”.

The evidence here suggests that the authors of that paper have got it slightly wrong.

You can only resist a particular trajectory, if that trajectory was open to you in the first place, and the evidence here suggests that for many young women, that was never a realistic option to begin with.

—–

Here’s the graph I mentioned earlier:

Reader comments

1. Unity

   RT @libcon: Teenage Pregnancy – It's the economy, stupid! http://bit.ly/b4QFGr

2. Dave Harris

   A demographic take on pregnancy/termination stats. RT @libcon Teenage Pregnancy – It's the economy, stupid! http://bit.ly/b4QFGr

3. Andrew Roche

   Teenage Pregnancy – It’s the economy, stupid! http://ff.im/-gngQI

4. Liberal Conspiracy

   Teenage Pregnancy – It's the economy, stupid! http://bit.ly/b4QFGr

5. Allan Siegel

   RT @libcon: Teenage Pregnancy – It's the economy, stupid! http://bit.ly/b4QFGr

6. uberVU - social comments

   Social comments and analytics for this post…

   This post was mentioned on Twitter by libcon: Teenage Pregnancy – It’s the economy, stupid! http://bit.ly/b4QFGr...

7. Liberal Conspiracy » Why do so many teenagers get pregnant?

   [...] looking at data from the EU, we’ve also found regional patterns in Europe that correspond to local patterns in England, with trends in teenage pregnancy rates in areas of low socio-economic deprivation most [...]

8. bishtraining

   http://im.ly/d8737/ but how is this reinforced by schools and communities etc and how can we intervene? That's our job. Individual change.

9. bishtraining

   And this is interesting from the same author http://im.ly/d8737/ Economy is a massive factor, interesting stuff….

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