A survey for the Sunday Times shows that Labour’s vote is hardening, thus increasing the prospect of a hung parliament after next year’s general election.

The Sunday Times by-election model, constructed by Professor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University, is based on actual votes cast in the dozens of by-elections that take place for council seats each month.

They told the newspaper:

Translated across the country on the basis of the new constituency boundaries that come into force in 2010, such a result would certainly see David Cameron installed as prime minister but heading a minority government. The Tories would have won over 60 more seats than Labour, with Labour losing more than 100 constituencies — nearly one in three of its current complement of MPs.

Cameron, however, with just 311 seats, would be 15 short of the 326 needed for an overall parliamentary majority.

Why could the polls be hardening? The professors offer their thoughts:

Measures in Alistair Darling’s pre-budget report, particularly the windfall tax on bankers’ bonuses, were well received by voters, and Labour’s “class war” attack on Cameron and George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, has put the Tories on the back foot.

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