Anthony Wells
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2383

Me: Why new labour should also have had something to say about bank bonuses
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/12/new-labour-case-for-bank-bonus-tax.html

Don replies to the replies
http://don-paskini.blogspot.com/2009/12/rentoul-replies.html

This government’s brazen populism has been one of it’s most consistent and deplorable characteristics.

Amazing that this same argument isn’t used when it comes to social issues like immigration huh? Damn that populism! Who cares what the people think. This is a democracy don’t you know?

(and to counter the incoming strawmen, I have also become more stringent on immigration in line with changing attitudes and concerns… so I do think people should be listened to).

We’ve also built up lots of schools and hospitals and transport infrastructure. I’m pretty certain my grandchildren will be making use of those (in 1997, about half of the NHS estate dated back to the 1940s, so I’ve certainly used things built up during my grandparents’ time).

Government announces a policy. Policy is popular in polls. Therefore government will be popular.

Ignoring of course the fact that whilst people will support the policy, they will not (as cjcjc pointed out) support it as a stated Labour policy with an alternative (which was not provided in the question). People do not vote by starting with the question ‘Labour or not’, then if not ‘Conservative or not’, and so on. They select a party for a variety of reasons. Very few will do it on who will bash the bankers. Many more will do it on who is likely to allow their aspirations to develop.

Also worth noting that the Conservatives are quiet at the moment. I can’t help but feel that they have set an elephant trap for Mr Brown to stumble into and are staying quiet around this area to lure him into a false sense of security. I doubt the Conservatives will really leave Labour promoting the banks and the debt as a success story. Downing Street advisors may be advised to check comments and attack lines carefully.

Good spot Bob.

But they would have, wouldn’t they?

cut international development spending and Labour activists go completely ballistic – plus there’s not much of it anyway, and cutting it would be morally wicked.

cut ID cards and get attacked as soft on terror, having wasted billions and being weak – it’d still be the right thing to do – and IIRC the current Tory position on ID cards is sufficiently ambivalent that they wouldn’t be able to play the “soft on terror” card convincingly.

cut public sector jobs and have a winter of discontent – indeed, Is Not Happening.

pull out of Afghanistan and really annoy the Americans – and the drawback is?

@Charlie, err, Rose of M&S and Leahy of Tesco aren’t the best possible examples of struggling managers of SMEs, perhaps?

Now Labour is suffering the same fate.

So, in that narrow sense, Rentoul is wrong.
But it’s no comfort to Labour.

Except that the Dangerous Dogs Act was introduced by Kenneth Baker, as Home secretary, and passed into law on 12 August 1991 when John Major was PM:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8391175.stm

This government’s brazen populism has been one of it’s most consistent and deplorable characteristics.

Week 1 Dog bites child.

Week 2 Tabloid feeding frenzy.

Week 3 Dangerous Dogs Act

This pernicious pattern has been repeated again and again. All we need to complete the misery are Simon Cowell’s TV referendums and we can have political decisions made directly by X Factor voters.

God help us.

The Labour party, and the left in general, should never be in the pocket of big business anyway.

They’ve been working in perfect harmony for the last twelve years. Are you telling us you didn’t notice?

It is very hard to think of significant cut backs which would not be wildly unpopular, though. People who lose out are always more vocal than those who gain, e.g.

cut defence spending or Trident and lose a bunch of marginal seats.
cut international development spending and Labour activists go completely ballistic
cut ID cards and get attacked as soft on terror, having wasted billions and being weak
cut public sector jobs and have a winter of discontent
pull out of Afghanistan and really annoy the Americans

The big opportunity missed with the PBR though – and I think this was the last potential game changer – was for the Govt to announce fairly stringent sounding cut-backs in public spending. If you’re too attached to the ‘don’t cut spending in a recession’ meme, then they could even have been post-dated. But a whole-hearted gallop through programmes and schemes that were being trimmed, and initiatives that were being delayed and so on, with an ever-present ‘we really don’t want to have to do this, but for the good of the country…’ theme, would have a) been the right thing to do anyway; and b) really screwed the Tories.

The narrative right up to the election could then have been – ‘we’re being honest and tough, but reluctant – we’ve made all the cuts we can without really hurting the poor. If the Tories are going to go farther then the moon will turn to blood etc.’

As it is, and by actually increasing spending in the PBR, Brown has made Labour look as though they are in complete denial over what needs to be done. Such a wasted opportunity. No wonder Mandelson is nowhere to be seen.

I don’t agree with it… don’t think the govt has its priorities straight over the issue. I’m just saying what I would do. But in their defence they also raised the bar for NI contributions – which help poorer earners. No?

The Labour party, and the left in general, should never be in the pocket of big business anyway. It should be supporting workers and small businesses – the real drivers of the economy.

And this is why NI was increased in the PBR? The one tax that hurts workers and small businesses most?

Ask where Labour’s current electoral haemorrage is and ok, maybe some on the so-called “middle ground”, but you’ll notice it’s largely Labour’s traditional constituencies that are deserting the party en masse.

By that same measure the whole country doesn’t like success. What a tool.

The Labour party, and the left in general, should never be in the pocket of big business anyway. It should be supporting workers and small businesses – the real drivers of the economy. And it’s the small businesses that have been hurt the most by this banking crisis. Those are the people – their mates – the like of John Rentoul and Tom Harris are so anxious to defend.

Quite so. This may help voters to focus:

“There has been mounting speculation in recent months about the personal wealth of the leading figures in the Conservative Party. Interest has heightened after the Tories announced that they would implement an austerity budget, slashing public services, if elected to Government. Research carried out last year by the News of the World recorded 19 millionaires in the Shadow Cabinet, giving some indication of the level of wealth at the top of the Conservative Party. Here Times Money has updated the list.”
http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2009/11/10-wealthiest-tories.html

“The Shadow Cabinet Rich List is published today by the News of the World. It shows there are 19 millionaires around that table.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/859311/the-shadow-cabinet-rich-list-part-1.thtml

The bankers bonuses is a contentious issue as there is still a lot of debate as to whether they will even have any effect – after it is a one-off tax that wont be repeated, has numerous exclusions and has no real impact on the deficit.

What has happened is the government has responded to a mindless fury with an impotent response.

Meanwhile, the deficit continues to soar, debt rockets upwards, and we leave our grandchildren the burden of paying off the cost of our recession.

It wont be nice to bear the pain of paying off the debt in our lifetime, but heck, we were the ones who built it up in the first place, so why shouldn’t we pay it back?

A government that makes the hard decisions is one I would support. The current government is not such an organisation.

Try the news yesterday:

“Tory lead cut to nine points in Guardian/ICM poll”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/14/tory-lead-nine-points-guardian-icm-poll

By estimates reported in the news, at a general election that would give Cameron a majority in the Commons of just four seats.

“It’s a fair cop, donpy. Didn’t express myself well. The bonus tax is popular in the short term (on the tax anybody but me principle), but I think it will have a negative effect on perceptions of Labour over the long term because it makes the party look as if it doesn’t like success.
John Rentoul”