The odds from Political Betting on Miliband’s chances of being ‘high representative’ are pretty low. This is in part because of the EU’s refusal to implement its free trade principles in the gambling market. The Lisbon Treaty has brought a lot of problems, but also the Citizens Initiative, a mechanism that means if a million signatures support a cause, the Commission must consider it. The campaign at http://www.right2bet.net is trying to make use of this, so as it integrates further, the EU at least abides by its original free trade principles.

In Italy Massimo D’Alema is being talked about as a strong contender for the EU Foreign Policy Minister. He is a former PM, used to be in the old Italian Communist Party and he has the backing of not only his political colleagues in Italy but also that of Silvio Berlusconi’s party and it would appear that the Germans are also supportive. He was PM at the time of the NATO intervention in Kosovo and is well known in Europe. So whether D’Alema is successful or not, on this basis, I would agree with Richard above that Milliband’s chances are pretty low and a by-election is equally unlikely.

In my view people should be focusing on how they can use the existing democratic structures that Lisbon affords rather than on these big name personalities who they profess to distrust but who they keep on affording stature to!! The post-Lisbon arrangement is not perfect in terms of direct democracy but levers do exist. For example, see http://www.right2bet.net for the first campaign to try and utilise Lisbon’s provision for citizens’ initiatives. I’m sure that grassroots campaigns like right2bet can make a difference, but they need support and they need to be given a chance.