Poll: BNP support down, windfall tax support up


by Chris Barnyard    
12:26 am - October 27th 2009

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A new Comres poll out today for the Independent shows that the weighted percentage of people who plan to vote for the BNP is down to their usual 2% average.

Following BBC Question Time there was some speculation their vote had jumped by a massive 50% from 2% to 3%. But that was also entirely within the margin of error.

Of respondents likely to vote, support for UKIP also remained low at 3%. Greens were slightly higher at 4%.

The poll also rubbished the myth that most BNP supporters stayed at home or had left other parties. When asked who respondents would vote for if they were legally required to, BNP support only rose to 3%. UKIP remained at 3% while the Greens rose to 7%.

Only 2% of all respondents saw themselves as natural BNP voters.

Windfall tax and others
66% of all voters, including 68% of Conservatives and 76% of Labour supporters agreed that a Windfall Tax should be imposed on banks. Only 25% disagreed.

53% of voters also thought Labour had a good chance of winning the next election.

45% of voters agreed with the statement: “David Cameron seems likeable but I am not sure I am ready to see a Conservative Government.

Full data can be downloaded from here.

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About the author
Chris is a regular contributor to Liberal Conspiracy. He is an aspiring journalist and reports stories for LC.
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Reader comments


1. Gareth Nicholas

This headline is highly misleading: if you look at ComRes’s last two polls, the BNP’s vote has actually increased.

ComRes/Independent:
18th Oct – BNP: 1.2% ± 0.8%
25th Oct – BNP: 2.0% ± 1.0%

Conclusion: the BNP vote has probably risen between the two polls.

There are a few caveats to this:
The BNP’s overall national vote in the General election (which this measures) is low, so this is only a weak indicator of their support in areas in which they are strong and in election formats in which they command more support (European, local).

When it is rising from the height of a gnat’s knees to its balls I am not too worried, if they ever overtake the Greens I’ll be worried.

But glad to see there was none of the predicted bounce.

“66% of all voters, including 68% of Conservatives and 76% of Labour supporters agreed that a Windfall Tax should be imposed on banks. Only 25% disagreed.”

Which shows that only 25% of the electorate have their heads screwed on the right way around.

At the moment we actually want the banks to recapitalise. Retained profit is one of the ways that they will do this. Taking more of their profit in tax so that they do not retain capital and thus do not recapitalise is simply stupid.

One other argument (which I’ve seen at Murphy’s) is that investors should pump in more capital, it shouldn’t be done by retaining earnings. But if you’ve just raised the tax on the returns to be had by putting in more capital as an investor then you’ve just dissuaded people from putting in more capital, haven’t you?

Plus, of course, in version 2, in those banks where the government owns stock, either the taxpayer has to stump up for the rights issue or the government holding gets diluted.

4. Gareth Nicholas

The point is, though, they don’t need to overtake the Greens to cause a problem! Their support is concentrated in certain areas. This poll dilutes that down by including all of Scotland, Wales, the West Country, most of London, East Anglia, etc where they have no support. Small national increase = bigger local increase where they are strong = more council seats, better general election results and more influence on national politics.

“But glad to see there was none of the predicted bounce.”
This poll shows nothing of the sort! If anything, it shows that there was a “bounce”. It certainly doesn’t show that there wasn’t one.

I know that Gareth but 2% is not a national movement is it? It’s not a case of some areas being dominated, those areas are far and few between and considering how many racists musn’t vote for them; I think we are getting off lightly.

You must be looking at a different poll, I see no bounce for them.

What’s heartening about this poll is support for the BNP and UKIP among 18-24 year olds doesn’t even register :D

The future’s bright Phil, the future’s not racist.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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  2. Liberal Conspiracy

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  3. poligeek

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  4. Liberal Conspiracy

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  5. Philip Matusavage

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    [...] they love pretending that if no one listens to them then BNP support will go through the roof, without any evidence.   |   Trackback link   |   Add to del.icio.us   |   function [...]

  11. Philip Matusavage

    RT APPARENTLY the state is too big. So let's tax bankers(!) @libcon New poll: BNP support down, windfall tax support up http://bit.ly/43bsD8

  12. Philip M

    RT APPARENTLY the state is too big. So let's tax bankers(!) @libcon New poll: BNP support down, windfall tax support up http://bit.ly/43bsD8

  13. Philip Matusavage

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